MAQ0640AU Macquarie Asia New Stars No.1 Fund


July, 2022

Asian small and mid-cap companies outperformed large caps this month, lifted by a dovish Fed rate hike outlook in the final week of July.

• The portfolio performed in line with its benchmark this month as it kept pace with the rally. The largest contribution to performance came from India, where the portfolio companies comfortably outperformed the rallying market. • China was the region’s worst performing market on concerns ranging from property, subdued second half growth outlook, to low visibility over re-opening of its borders. The resurfacing of US listing concerns added some selling pressure on certain names, particularly the large-cap technology companies.

• While the portfolio and small and mid-caps more broadly remain somewhat resilient to these risks the overall market sentiment was negative and China was home to all 5 of the portfolio’s largest individual stock detractors over the month. • From a sectoral perspective, it was pleasing to see Samsung SDI and Sinbon Electronics, which are both leading the transition to greener energy solutions, continue to appreciate in value as their structurally advantaged revenue streams continue to deliver.

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June, 2022

Asian markets declined along with all major equity markets in June although the region outperformed both Developed Market and other Emerging Market bourses.

• The portfolio finished the month roughly in line with its benchmark but ahead over the quarterly period, driven by some downside protection from the higher quality of the portfolio companies along with their ongoing delivery on underlying fundamentals, particularly in consumption related positions.

• The recent period has seen the team travel across India, Korea, Singapore and South East Asia. We have been hearing of continued operational execution and resilience, as well as received some interesting insight on inflation. We perceive inflation to be lower across Asia relative to developed and emerging markets outside Asia and the feedback from companies on the ground has broadly been reflective of this.

• An area we remain positive on is China where we are hearing from companies that as lockdowns have eased activity has resumed and from the government investors are now hearing that their interventions aimed at addressing social inequalities have largely been established. We remain confident in the prospects for our Chinese portfolio companies and expect investors to gradually step back into structurally advantaged China exposures. Chinese equities were among the best performing in the portfolio for the month and quarter, making the largest contribution to absolute and relative returns.

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May, 2022

Asian markets declined over the month as the expectations of aggressive policy tightening by the Fed and concerns over global economic growth weighed on the risk sentiment. The portfolio underperformed its benchmark in May primarily driven by what we believe to be stock specific short-term sentiment driven factors.

• The source of this month’s underperformance primarily came from China with the tertiary education providers, China Education Group and China New Higher Education, depressed on negative sentiment toward the sector. We remain positive on their long-term outlook and continue to look through the sector-based volatility that has seen their valuations drop to highly attractive levels, in our view.

• More broadly, we saw signs that market sentiment was turning more positive on the Chinese equities due to the government’s efforts to cushion economic growth slowdown, expectations of Shanghai re-opening and Beijing’s easing Omicron cases and reduced mobility restrictions, as well as US President Joe Biden’s statement that he is considering removing some of the tariffs on Chinese imports.

• On the positive side of things, India was the country where the most outperformance was delivered during the month, with a reopening play via our investment in the MakeMyTrip online travel booking website provider delivering the bulk of the outperformance

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April, 2022

What happened in April?

• Asia New Stars’ quality growth and value disciplines saw it outperform its benchmark* in a period where global markets absorbed the reality that growth will become scarcer in an environment of higher inflation and with it structurally higher interest rates. The domestic focus of the portfolio added resilience with the obvious tailwind of the opening of many of the Asian economies. This opening and escalation of business activity is undeterred by inflation is the feedback from many quarters of the regions especially in South East Asia, India and South Korea where ‘with-COVID’ policies are in place.
• Consistent to our fundamental investment strategy the outperformance was generated from bottom-up stock selection with key contributors coming from India, South Korea and Taiwan in the Financials, Materials and Information Technology sectors. Specifically key contributors included a long held agricultural-chemical company that is benefiting from food inflation, a leading supplier of high-end golfing equipment and a Korean convenient store operator that are benefiting from the re-opening of global and local economies respectively, and a supplier of data-centre equipment as the growing need for data storage is showing little signs of abatement.
• Countering this there were few detractors in a month of a high stock-picking hit rate with the key detractors being cases of reversion from strong recent performance.
• A key regional and global exception to the ‘with-COVID’ strategy is China, yet despite the strict lock-down of Shanghai and its obvious economic drag, China was not an under-performer for the month rebounding into the month end for several subtle, less headline-grabbing but real reasons.

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February, 2022

Asia markets retraced modestly in February due to the tensions resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and fears of inflation rising in a slowing global economy. The Fund underperformed with some of the more export focused companies reverting. Offsetting this was solid delivery in the domestically focused names in India and China.

• The weaker exporting names include two long-term muti-bagger investments for the Fund where we see solid ongoing delivery, these being the South Korean producer of high-end electric vehicle batteries, Samsung SDI and the low-cost innovative India agrichemical company UPL. In both cases the companies operate with superior profitability margins compared to peers and have obvious structural tailwinds being the proliferation of electric vehicles and the higher demand for more productive agriculture in satisfying the expanding appetites and palates of the world’s rapidly growing middle class.

• The offsetting stronger performers for the month shared a common thematic of the emergence of the world from the grasps of COVID-19. These include a rapidly expanding restaurant chain in China, a hospital in India which is now realising fuller occupancy in dealing with a backlog of pent-up elective surgeries and an Indonesian microfinance provider who is extending further finance.

• Although not a focus of the Fund, which has consistently maintained a domestically focused bias, opportunity does nonetheless present itself in the more export focused names where domestically developed competitive advantage is leveraged globally. The more obvious examples of these are in South Korea and Taiwan technology hardware sectors where the Fund is has benefitted from a consistent overweight to electric vehicle batteries for many a year and more recently memory exposures. UPL is a less obvious, but nonetheless an equally compelling example of an exporter with a domestically developed entrenched competitive advantage.

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December, 2021

The Fund retraced in December mainly on poor sentiment toward Chinese property services and education companies. The Fund lagged a benchmark that was led higher by cyclicals with Industrial and Materials sectors extending their recent outperformance over the structurally advantaged Consumer and Healthcare sectors.

Both property services and education are respectively supported by trends of increased multi-dwelling living and higher demand for vocational and higher education with a shift toward services and higher technology manufacturing within the Chinese economy, in our view. For the year both sectors witnessed strong earnings growth with high annuity style earnings visibility ahead of them. Nonetheless these highly profitable business models are being overlooked with poor sentiment toward China prevailing.

The discounting of domestic demand names despite the solid earnings delivery saw the portfolio close the year at a material discount to both its own benchmark and global bourses. Despite maintaining superior quality and structural growth prospects, the portfolio has historically tended to trade in line with its more cyclical benchmark which we observe to be a product of the less efficient, under-analysed market. The prevailing discount we see as an exaggerated anomaly

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November, 2021

Asian markets retraced (in USD terms) during November with ongoing competitiveness, slowing demand and regulatory concerns amongst large cap e-commerce tickers, as well as some anticipation of lockdowns with the Omicron COVID-19 strain spreading globally.

Although both small and large cap Asian stocks retraced in unison over the month the fall in smaller companies was more muted. Year-to-date the MSCI Asia ex Japan Small Cap benchmark has outperformed its large cap counterpart by 23% benefitting from diversification and valuation support.

The Fund, being overweight domestic demand and consumption exposures, underperformed its benchmark slightly during November. Regional variances saw the technology heavy Taiwan and the defensive Singapore regions outperforming whilst the more COVID-19 vulnerable South East Asian regions were amongst the underperformers. Sector-wise it was the consumer sector that is more exposed to lockdowns that lagged whilst Information Technology and Communication Services showed resilience with the former shaking concerns around supply side constraints and the latter being a beneficiary from lock-downs and home-working.

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October, 2021

The Fund lagged the benchmark during the month with reversions in South Korean stocks that have performed well year to date, COVID-19 fears in China and capital flows from China around excessive regulatory oversight being the main drivers of performance detraction.

Offsetting these headwinds, the rapid recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 delta-strain in India and South East Asia saw conviction in these regions pick-up and markets rebound.

Much like we did with our long-held conviction investments in India and South East Asia, we hold our conviction in the face of shortterm issues in China. Our resolute view is that quality companies endure and we look to their fundamental delivery and valuations, ahead of sentiment and trends in capital flows.

Hansol Chemical is a conviction position that saw a modest retracement in October but is well placed to be a beneficiary of the structural trend of electric drive trains displacing internal combustion engines, in our view. Although not a pure play on this trend the bottom-up delivery from Hansol is in three key areas being next generation screens for televisions and other electronic devices, memory and elective vehicles. In each case Hansol enjoys strong and improving margins from research and innovation delivering superior inputs as well as security of supply to their industry leading clients whilst gaining scale economies. Whilst others may have taken profits into the rally which has seen the share price more than double over the past year, we hold this position for the growth potential yet to come and we outline why further below

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September, 2021

Default concerns amongst Chinese property developers dragged Asian markets lower in September with selling pressure spreading across the China and Hong Kong markets. Indonesian and the Philippines markets offset the declines with higher vaccination rates, declining COVID-19 case numbers and relaxation of lock-down measures buoying those markets.

The region’s smaller cap indices were more sheltered from these effects seeing the Fund’s more diversified benchmark finish the month flat compared to a 3% fall for the China dominated large cap Asia ex Japan benchmark.

Nonetheless the underperformance of investments in China saw the Fund lag its benchmark with investments in Indonesia and the Philippines offsetting these declines.

Within China we hold our conviction in our holdings as we see solid delivery from companies with strong execution and capital light business models with modest if any gearing. What gives us particular comfort though is the compelling valuations these conviction investments are now trading at post the retracement in these markets

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August, 2021

August saw a small recovery in Asian markets following the volatility in July as investors took more time to absorb China’s regulatory action and focus shifted toward fundamentals as a result of the reporting period.

Outperformance delivered during a reporting season is often the result of seeds sown many months or even years prior and it is these periods that we look to in monitoring execution and validating our longer-term expectations.

The Fund’s outperformance during the month was delivered by broadly positive stock selection across all countries and sectors, although India and the Philippines contributed the most in this regard.

Converge ICT Solutions (Philippines based fixed broadband provider), delivered the largest individual performance contribution with a 37% rally during the month. Spurred by continued strong execution as well as the news of its index inclusion.

We remain positive on Converge’s longer-term outlook as it leads the charge in rolling out fixed broadband to a highly underpenetrated market and on a nearer-term basis we expect it will accelerate subscriber growth in the second half of the year.

India delivered another strong month of performance with positions across Consumer and Healthcare sectors delivering August’s returns.

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July, 2021

It was a volatile month for Asian equities as the market reacted with extreme caution, bordering panic, in response to an accumulation of regulatory initiatives in China.

• The straw that seemingly broke the market’s back was the regulation remedying unscrupulous behaviour in the afterschool tutoring sector, decimating companies operating in this segment. These actions are an irrelevance for our education holdings, which operate higher education institutions with strong local, provincial and central government support. Recent regulatory moves very much encourage the private sector’s participation recognising their innovation, campus expansions and collaboration with business in better preparing the future workforce for the demands of China’s economy.

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June, 2021

The most notable trend in Asian markets during 2021 and for the past year has been Asian smaller companies outperforming their larger cap peers, matching the trend that we have found to be present in other recovery environments.

• Large caps have been under additional pressure since late 2020 due to ongoing regulatory interventions, which are most acute for largecap China e-commerce firms.

• Asian markets rose slightly over the month with COVID-19 concerns escalating in most regions against the backdrop of accelerated vaccinations.

• The Fund remains ahead of the strongly performing benchmark over both the quarter and six-month periods, despite underperforming in June.

• The largest area of detraction during June came from the Consumer Discretionary sector, with stocks sold-off in the face of escalating COVID-19 case numbers, we remain confident in our exposures here and view these elements of the portfolio to offer considerable future alpha potential as market sentiment discounts the long-term opportunity.

• The recent earnings season has highlighted the strength of the underlying fundamentals of the portfolio and we remain satisfied that it is trading at a discount to its longer-term prospects.

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May, 2021

Asian markets have had an impressive run. The continued strength of smaller cap stocks has seen them outperform the larger cap index by over 10% since the start of 2021.

To us, Asian markets remain attractive relative to both their own history and global peers. As shown in the chart below, the broader Asia index remains at a 20% discount and Asian small caps at a 35% discount to their respective global peers.

We remain constructive on the outlook for Asia’s SMID cap market. Others are suggesting that the easy gains in the larger cap market may well have been made and from here returns may be driven more from alpha than beta (Source: HSBC). Asia’s market inefficiencies make it structurally attractive for active management. As we highlighted in last month’s report, we believe the stars are aligning for Asian SMID caps and their long history of alpha generation is returning to the fore. After a reporting season where fundamentals came back into acute focus, we remain resolute in our view that the long-term opportunity in Asia is to capture its alpha and beta potential – it is the “home of alpha” after all.

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April, 2021

• The ongoing recovery led Asian smaller companies to produce another month of gains that surpassed their larger cap peers both locally and globally (MSCI Asia ex Japan Index and MSCI World Index, respectively).

• The Fund performed in line with its benchmark this month, led by rallies in Chinese consumer discretionary exposures that have endured a period of being overlooked by the market.

• The Fund’s Chinese education providers and a sportswear brand enjoyed significant gains, all rallying over 35% (in USD) during the month. The patience and focus on fundamental delivery over a long period showed some reward this month as the Fund has held all these exposures through periods of short-term pessimistic sentiment.

• There were no material individual stock detractors for the month. The largest area of detraction from performance was in Taiwan, due to a lack of exposure to the relatively more cyclical Industrials and Materials sectors which staged strong rallies following the recent strength in commodity prices.

• With company earnings season continuing in Asia, we have seen a renewed focus on fundamental delivery with stock prices generally following earnings results. Historically, in environments where fundamentals lead markets our investment strategy is rewarded relative to when sentiment prevails, as occurred in 2020.

• We look back on other lessons from the past in the section further below, repeating the structural and tactical case for Asian SMID cap exposure.

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March, 2021

Asian smaller companies continued their upward trajectory and outperformed their larger regional peers, as mega-cap Chinese internet stocks continued to face headwinds. Stretching the relative performance gap between the two benchmarks to 7% year-to-date.

• The Fund underperformed the rising market during March but maintains its positive start to 2021, as the revival occurring in Asian small caps remains a tailwind.

• During the month, the largest detractor from performance at the country level was India, where a resurgence of COVID-19 cases is occurring. Daily cases in India are reaching new highs, dragging down economic activity. New lockdown measures have been announced in some areas. Overall, we remain confident that our portfolio positioning in the country is, on balance, reasonably well insulated from further COVID related shocks.

• The largest individual contributor to performance was China Yongda Automobiles Services (Chinese luxury auto dealer) which delivered a very solid quarterly result. There were comprehensive improvements throughout their business, including across: new car volumes, aftersales servicing, inventory turnover, expansion plans and progress in new energy vehicle related business lines.

• The largest individual detractor from performance was Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah (Indonesian ultra-micro finance provider) which declined on general weakness in the Indonesian economy, which still grapples with high COVID case numbers and localised activity restrictions.

• We remain optimistic in the outlook for a continued recovery in Asia, expect smaller companies to continue to benefit from this environment and, importantly, consider the portfolio to be positioned in fundamentally attractive businesses that are priced at compelling valuations.

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February, 2021

Fund highlights and key contributors

• Asia’s continued recovery saw a broad-based rally in Asian smaller companies with all of the region’s individual markets finishing the month in the green (in USD).

• During the month, the region’s smaller companies comfortably outperformed their larger regional peers (by 6%), developed markets (by 5%) and developed market small caps (by 2%), placing them ahead on a year-to-date basis also.

• The Fund performed in line with the region’s rally, as investors sought out more attractively valued propositions and generally began to question the pricing of growth multiples.

• Hansol Chemical (South Korean specialised IT material manufacturer) was the highest individual contributor to the Fund’s performance. During the month it lodged a patent for a sulphide-solid-electrolyte manufacturing process and product along with auto firms, Hyundai and Kia, to whom Hansol are expected to supply the product. To us, this is another signal that our thesis on this company is playing out as it becomes an increasingly important supplier to the electric vehicle industry.

• The largest detraction from performance during the month came from the Fund’s positioning in China. Where the share prices for two key positions (China New Higher Education and Times Neighborhood) declined despite a lack of change to their underlying fundamentals.

• We remain positioned in generally overlooked areas of the market, as we continue to question the fundamentally stretched exposures which have seen valuation pressure recently.

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January, 2021

China led world markets out of the gates in 2021 at a bristling pace, up 10% (in USD) in January, the impressive rally was underpinned by its resilient economic growth trajectory that has been running comfortably ahead of consensus expectations. • Asian equities rose 4.0% (in USD) in January, a fourth consecutive month of positive performance, and leading developed markets which declined 1.1% over the month (Australia remained flat, while the US declined 1.0%, Japan 1.0%, and Europe 1.5%). • Earnings reporting for 4Q20 has commenced across the region and things are looking good, with reported results up 43.8% year-onyear; consensus expects Asian earnings growth of 26% in 2021. Amongst markets, consensus expect Philippines (50.4%), Korea (48.7%), Malaysia (44.6%), and Singapore (41.0%) to see the highest earnings growth in 2021 (source: HSBC). • The MSCI Asia ex Japan Small Cap Index lagged its large cap peer to deliver a 0.7% return (in USD for January), with its lower allocation to China being the main factor. However, the earnings outlook for the region provides some optimism as the small cap index has a larger allocation to the markets with the highest earnings growth forecasts.

• The Fund performed in line with its benchmark during January with the recent country level performance themes continuing, with good contributions from South Korean and Indian positioning but detraction from China. We remain satisfied with our positioning, expecting the market’s attention to underlying fundamentals to increase over the course of 202

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December, 2020

Asian markets ended the year strongly with the most bullish market sentiment since 2017. The year was characterised by factor performance, where we saw significant underperformance from Value, muted performance from Quality and clear outperformance from the Growth and Momentum factors.

• December continued the market theme of 2020, where stocks with high long-term growth forecasts and share price momentum outperformed. Meanwhile quality and value lagged. This environment has not favoured our style of investing in quality growth companies at a reasonable valuation, and we remain unwilling to risk investor capital in chasing lofty growth expectations at unreasonable valuations.

• South Korea and Taiwan filled the Fund’s top stock contributor list this month, with 8 out of the top 10. Good stock picking helped the Fund outperform in these markets, which were the region’s best performing in December.

• This month’s underperformance largely came from areas of the portfolio that did not participate in the rally, such as Chinese Education and broadband providers in both Hong Kong and the Philippines. We consider these to be resilient businesses, but the market has either overlooked or sold them at the margin due to shorter-term concerns. We remain of the view these firms have good growth prospects in 2021 and expect them to perform well given their reasonable valuations.

• The disparity between Growth and Value remains highly elevated and we expect this gap to narrow with a broader market participation in 2021. Overall, we hold a constructive view on Asian equities for the year ahead and we expect areas of the market that have recently been overlooked, such as small caps, to come back into favour in 2021 – as explained in our outlook further below.

- Asia in 2021 – The outlook

2020 was a remarkable year for investors, witnessing the paradox of severe economic disruptions and record returns in some equity markets, including in Asia. The economic performance of the major regions of the world was largely determined by the impacts of COVID-19, but the structural growth drivers that power Asia’s economies have seen it perform resiliently over this period and is expected to enter 2021 on sound footing.

The outperformance of technology and internet stocks helped the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index trade to all-time high levels and return 25% (in USD, 14% in AUD) during 2020. Indeed, even if the contributions from this group of stocks are excluded from the index’s performance this year, the aggregate returns from all other constituents remains positive. This is a remarkable result under the circumstances and highlights the resilience of the Asian region.

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November, 2020

Global equities rallied strongly in November as the conclusion of the Presidential elections in the US and the positive vaccine news boosted sentiment. The efficacy of the vaccine trials in particular resulted in a broadening of the market’s rally, with sectors most acutely hit by COVID-19 enjoying some relief.

• Asian small caps performed in line with this global rally to outperform their large cap peers. The increased scrutiny on internet giants in China, including the last minute cancelation of the Ant Financial IPO (set to be the largest in history at close to US$40bn), has made the market reassess the implications of regulation on China’s large internet companies.

• The recovery environment remains supportive for Asian small caps and November’s strong rally puts them ahead of the all-cap benchmark on a calendar year return basis. November also delivered 2020’s second month of +10% returns (in USD) for Asian small caps, the last year this occurred was during the recovery from the GFC in 2009.

• The Fund benefitted from the rally to post strong absolute returns, with performance delivered from Indian Financials and our selective positioning in the memory value chain. Both are areas we have viewed as substantially undervalued since the market’s lows in March.

• The drags on performance were mostly relative with no clear individual or collective stock positioning hampering performance. Our style generally steers us away from the most cyclical parts of the market and this relative underweight was the main culprit for the underperformance in this month’s strong rally.

• Looking forward, we remain comfortable in our positioning and expect that as global investors increasingly look to Asia they will be seeking out the type of higher quality and attractively priced growth opportunities which our portfolios aim to capture.

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October, 2020

• Emerging Markets outperformed Developed Markets as new cases cast doubts over the sustenance of recent growth momentum, unfortunately October’s case counts rose to new highs across Europe and the US.
• Asia was the stand-out performer in October as it was the only region in the world to register an advance and re-tested its recent
‘post-COVID-19’ market highs.
• China was the overriding driving force behind Asia’s performance during the month, with rising investor optimism, as it unveiled the 14th Five Year Plan to set out on becoming an advanced middle-income country with leading global influence by 2049. Read on for more on this topic.
• For the portfolio, we saw mixed results in China this month. Although the best performing stock was China Yongda Automobiles Services (Chinese luxury car dealership), which reported a net profit after tax increase of 40% for the quarter. Our positioning in Chinese education providers and a property management firm detracted due to a variety of apparent concerns, we view these as shorter-term in nature and not disruptive to the longer-term structural growth potential these firms exhibit. Overall, the positive performance in pockets could not outweigh the weakness in share price action elsewhere.
• On the positive front our positioning in Financials bounced strongly, most notably in India where our high allocation to the country’s underpenetrated financial sector led it to deliver the best country level performance for the Fund.
• We remain selective in our positioning and continue to view the portfolio as attractively priced and fundamentally well positioned as the recovery in Asia continues.

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ticker: MAQ0640AU
commentary_block: Array
factsheet_url:

https://investmentcentre.moneymanagement.com.au/factsheets/mi/lsq7/macquarie-asia-new-stars-no-1


release_schedule: Monthly
fund_features:

Macquarie Asia New Stars No.1 Fund aims to capture the potential capital growth of small and mid-sized companies in Asia (excluding Japan), and to provide some income.

  • The Fund provides exposure to a portfolio of small and mid-sized companies in Asia (excluding Japan).
  • Actively managed strategy using a combination of quantitative screening and an intensive fundamental research process to select stocks and build a portfolio of Asian (excluding Japan) shares.
  • Consider as high risk/return investment.
  • Derivatives may be used for hedging or to manage economic exposure. The Fund may be exposed to Asian, US and UK currencies and is unhedged. Individual currencies may be hedged to manage risk and liquidity from time to time

manager_contact_details: Array
asset_class: Foreign Equity
asset_category: Asia Pacific w/o Japan
peer_benchmark: Foreign Equity - Asia ex Jap Index
broad_market_index: World Emerging Markets Index
structure: Managed Fund