September, 2023
The Fund outperformed it's benchmark over the month. Supra-nationals, financials, industrials and utilities were the main drivers of outperformance. Activity during the month included increasing exposure to infrastructure, telcos funded out of utilities and cash.
Credit spreads widened slightly in September as equities declined throughout the month. The shift towards risk-averse sentiment was primarily instigated by a sharp uptick in US interest rates. The main drivers of this interest rate spike were higher oil prices, hawkish Fed and potential of additional US Treasury supply. Oil prices rose significantly in September, putting upward pressure on inflation expectations. Another factor was hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, which included a 50-basis point increase in the median dot projection for both 2024 and 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that policymakers were "ready to implement further rate hikes if deemed necessary." Additionally, the worsening US fiscal position led to market speculation that the US government would need to issue more Treasury bonds. This fear of oversupply also contributed to the sharp increase in Treasury yields. Credit spreads were mixed over the month. The Australian iTraxx index (series 39) traded in a tight 7bp range finishing 2bps wider to close at 80bps. The new series 40 contract ended the month at +88bps. Australian physical credit spreads widened 2bps on average. The best performing sectors were utilities and supranationals that both moved out 1bp, whilst the worst performing sectors were resources and industrials that widened 8 & 3bps respectively. Semi-government bonds outperformed, narrowing 7bps to commonwealth government bonds.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-20.pdfAugust, 2023
The Fund outperformed its benchmark over the month of August.
Financials, industrials and utilities were the main drivers of outperformance.
Activity during the month included increasing exposure to supranationals funded out of senior and sub bank debt.
This month, the fund invested in an AUD Social Bond from the International Finance Corporation which is a member of the World Bank. These type of social bonds have projects that focus on the underprivileged in society in developing countries. This includes projects targeting health and gender equality, as well as economic empowerment and opportunities through agribusiness, microfinance and infrastructure.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-19.pdfJuly, 2023
The Fund outperformed its benchmark in July.
Financials, industrials and utilities were the main drivers of outperformance.
Activity during the month included increasing exposure to offshore banks funded out of domestic sub bank bonds.
This month we invested in our first offshore green bond from a USbased issuer. We bought a JP Morgan Green Bond whilst also hedging out the currency risk back to AUD.
This bond is contributing to renewable electricity generation in the United States. This includes wind farms in North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Iowa.
The residential solar panels funded by this bond are in the sunny states of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, as well as some North-Eastern states.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-18.pdfJune, 2023
The Fund outperformed its benchmark in June.
Financials, industrials and utilities were the main drivers of outperformance.
Activity during the month included increasing exposure to utilities, domestic bank sub debt and semi-government bonds funded out of domestic senior bank bonds.
This month the fund invested in the inaugural Western Australia Treasury Corp Green Bond. WA’s Green Bond follows a year after the government’s new sustainability plan and is reflective of the focus of the government to green up their economy and green up their energy usage. WA’s Green Bond is raising $1.9 billion to decarbonise the state’s electricity grid by investing in new projects that include battery storage and wind farms alongside charging infrastructure and rebates for electric vehicles.
This fund also invested in the Transpower NZ Green Bond, which is the transmission network of New Zealand. Transpower’s financing has been deemed by the Climate Bonds Initiative as having such a large pool of eligible assets that all their funding can be considered for a green bond. This is in part because any replacement or new build in the transmission network helps facilitate the transfer of renewable electricity. In 2021, 80% of New Zealand’s electricity came from renewable sources according to the International Energy Agency. With this Green Bond, further renewable electricity generation such as wind farms will be connected to the grid. This will continue to increase the proportion of electricity from renewable sources which is an important component in reducing carbon emissions for New Zealand.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-17.pdfMay, 2023
The portfolio outperformed its benchmark in May.
Supra-nationals, financials, utilities and industrials were the main drivers of outperformance.
Activity during the month included increasing exposure to utilities, domestic and offshore banks funded out of real estate and shorter dated domestic banks.
This month we invested in an AUD Green Bond from OCBC, a Singaporean-based bank. This bond has a focus on renewable energy and green buildings.
Wind is fast emerging as a significant power source in Australia, accounting for 10% of electricity in 2022. Only 10 years ago, wind was responsible for only around 2% of electricity. Bonds like this help fund meaningful and ongoing support for the energy transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
This bond will also fund green buildings. These are buildings which have been assessed across a range of sustainability criteria such as water efficiency, energy usage, materials and resources used in construction and the choice of sustainable sites. New buildings are inevitable and necessary: we need places to live and work in. This bond is constructing office and mixed development buildings in Australia and Singapore that have a smaller environmental footprint and greater energy efficiency measures.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-16.pdfApril, 2023
The Fund outperformed its benchmark in April. Financials and supra-nationals were the main drivers of outperformance.
Activity during the month included increasing exposure to supranationals funded out of financials. This month we invested in an AUD Biodiversity and Sustainable Development bond from the World Bank. More than half the world’s GDP is estimated to be dependent on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Fresh water, fertile soils, clean air and even insects pollinating plants – the flow-on effects of the degradation of biodiversity are immense. Biodiversity is emerging as an investment focus, coinciding with businesses increasingly disclosing the different environmental risks they face.
This is the first Sustainability bond we’ve invested in that has an explicit focus on biodiversity. This bond is helping to put nature as central to development through promoting conservation, training, and policy to seek nature-based solutions in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Through this bond, we are investing in projects around the world that are promoting biodiversity, including by providing training and opportunities to manage resources.
An example of a project this bond will fund is in Tunisia. Oases in Tunisia, long the centre of trade and cultural exchange, are threatened from water wastage, soil salinity and fertility loss. Local knowledge about how to manage these resources is being lost.
This bond is helping to fund improved governance of these spaces through improving water saving and reducing land degradation. The bond will enable 25,000 hectares to be under sustainable landscape management practices, providing financial support for 250 small and medium enterprises.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-15.pdfMarch, 2023
This Fund offers investors access to a diversified portfolio of floating and fixed income securities that meet financial and social and/or environmental goals.
The Fund aims to meet its investment objectives by investing in securities including social bonds, climate/green bonds and sustainability bonds. The Fund may also invest in government and credit securities that pass our sustainable and ethical screens. The Fund’s investments are predominantly issued in Australian dollars. For non-Australian dollar denominated securities, the Fund will generally hedge back any foreign currency exposures to Australian dollars to the extent considered reasonably practicable.
The Fund uses a combination of active alpha strategies such as active security and sector selection, duration, yield curve and credit management in addition to analysis of ethical and sustainable considerations to build a portfolio that contributes to the Fund’s social or environmental goals.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-14.pdfFebruary, 2023
The Fund outperformed its benchmark in February.
Financials, industrials and real estate added to performance.
Activity during the month included some domestic banks and insurance switches.
Central banks know that monetary policy is now restrictive. However, the heightened uncertainty post COVID means they are reluctant to show the patience required to sit out the inflation numbers that are slower to moderate. Therefore longer dated bonds have performed better in the short end led selloff in February than the episodes we saw last year.
The support for markets is partly coming from the real interest rate side. Both US and Australian 10 year real yields are around 1.5%. This risk free rate of return above inflation has a decent term premium as cash rates are expected to average around inflation in the medium term.
Therefore unless inflation expectations ramp up further we expect markets to maintain a range until mid year, when activity data is likely to significantly slow. This range is 4% to 3.5% for 10 year bonds and 3.6% to 3.2% for three year bonds. Investors should be planning for cuts in 2024 and targeting duration now.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-13.pdfJanuary, 2023
The Fund outperformed its benchmark by 27bps (pre-fee) in January.
Industrials, financials, utilities and real estate added to performance.
Activity during the month included increasing exposure to supranationals and domestic banks funded out of cash.
This month we invested in a new Australian dollar Asian Development Bank (ADB) Education Bond. This is a social bond that finances projects relating to education in developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. This includes projects relating to access and quality of education, as well as projects that focus on getting students in school and work readiness training. One of the projects funded through these Education Bonds is a social protection system in Pakistan – essentially social welfare – that provides money to poor families of school children to enable them to attend education. This is especially powerful in encouraging girls attendance and, due to the targeting of recipients, also has enhanced health and nutrition outcomes.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-12.pdfDecember, 2022
The Fund outperformed its benchmark by 20 basis points (pre fee) in December. Financials, industrials and supra-nationals added to performance. Activity during the month included adding exposure to industrials funded out of cash.
The Australian bond market finished 2022 on a poor note, with 10 year yields just shy of the yield highs of the year in June and October of 4.2%. They began 2022 below 2%.
Whilst the worst of the inflation fears seem to have passed and expectations are now for inflation to move back towards 4% over the next year, markets are sceptical about further improvements from there. The RBA’s own forecasts do not see inflation back in the 2-3% band until 2025. This backdrop, combined with pressure on real rates to move higher, mean bond markets are struggling to hold on to any rally.
However, the battleground for 2023 will move from supply led inflation to wages. We are in new territory here as the race to increase labour supply through immigration hits up against current shortages across multiple industries. By 2024 there should be more balance in many sectors but this may come too late to prevent outsized increases in 2023. The minimum wage decision in Q2 alone should see an outcome nearer 6%, adding to recent double digit outcomes in a number of areas like aged care workers. Overall wages should push higher than the RBA comfort zone of 3.5-4%.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-11.pdfNovember, 2022
Cash and Short-Term Liquidity Weighting: ↑ Cash and Short dated liquidity increased to 26.82% from 26.24%.
Interest Rate Duration Position: → 0.10 years. The strategy will maintain interest rate duration of approximately 3 months as an average. Having a low IRD number has limited the realised volatility in the fund over the month from continued bond market volatility. The strategy will, as a rule, only take modest interest rate risk.
Corporate & Subordinated Debt Allocation: ↓ Decreased to 43.43% from 44.18%. Optimisation within the sector was skewed towards Corporate bonds and Subordinated debt. Corporate bonds continue to present modest relative value over bank senior bonds; however, this value is eroding as bank senior bonds are repricing wider. Over the month, short dated corporate bonds rallied slightly driven by a decrease in swap spreads, while bank senior bonds rallied modestly. The short, conservative nature of the sector and diversification aided in cushioning the market volatility over the month.
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) & ABS: → Allocation to structured credit securities remained inline with last month at 29.75%. As at month end, the portfolio held an A- average credit rating and a relatively short weighted credit duration of 1.90 years.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-10.pdfOctober, 2022
The Fund (pre fee) slightly outperformed its benchmark in October. Industrials added to performance whilst financials detracted.
Activity during the month included adding exposure to domestic banks whilst reducing exposure to financials sub debt.
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the market when they raised the cash rate by 0.25% to 2.60% in early October. Governor Lowe dropped a hint in early September that the pace of tightening would slow when he commented that “the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises”. The more aggressive tightening from other central banks had however resulted in the market pricing in an increase of 0.50% going into meeting.
This set up a positive month for Australian fixed interest, despite further sell offs in US rates. The major economies in the world are all at different stages of cycles right now and the market finally realised that the dynamics in Australia are partially different to the US. Australian three year yields rallied from 3.59% to 3.29%. 10 year yields moved from 3.90% to 3.75%. Australian 10 year yields now sit 0.3% under US rates.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-9.pdfSeptember, 2022
The Fund slightly outperformed its benchmark in September.
Financials and industrials added to performance whilst supranationals and reits slightly detracted.
Activity during the month included adding exposure to the insurance sector whilst reducing exposure to supra-nationals and financials.
This month we divested a bond from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This is a multilateral development bank that funds social and economic projects throughout Asia. We had invested in the AIIB Sustainable Development Goals bond which included projects funding infrastructure for climate stability, transport, public health and rural infrastructure. Whilst we are very supportive of the underlying projects that this bond funded, we ultimately decided to divest due to insufficient improvement in their impact reporting.
We consider impact reporting across specific indicators vital for us to understand how our investments are contributing to climate stability or assisting the underserved in society. We have communicated with this issuer about our expectations for impact reporting and unfortunately they have been unable to provide us with the information we require. AIIB began operations in 2015 and is the youngest international development bank. Compared to the other Supranational organisations we invest in, AIIB has less clear documentation, less transparent processes and is a newer and less known organisation. We have communicated with the issuer about our expectations throughout, but ultimately we cannot wait indefinitely for improvement. We will closely monitor AIIB’s reporting and disclosure and provide feedback as it changes.
We strive for the market to be more transparent. We think Supranationals are not the big risk for green-washing. Our bigger concern in this space has been with issuers who are jumping-onthe-bandwagon and trying to re-brand vanilla bonds to be considered green, social or sustainability bonds, rather than institutions that have been explicit in their purpose of achieving the SDGs. Nevertheless, this issuer has not been able to report with the level of detail that other supranational organisations have provided us. As we want to be active in making the market better, we have acted with our feet and divested.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-8.pdfAugust, 2022
The Fund outperformed its benchmark by 0.37% (pre-fee) in August.
Financials, industrials, utilities and real estate sectors added to performance.
Activity during the month included adding exposure to financials whilst reducing exposure to industrials.
Australian bonds remain under pressure into the end of August from continued strong hawkish Fed rhetoric. We expect other banks, including the RBA, to continue this in the months ahead.
However a key difference ahead, when compared to 2022 so far, will be a likely falling US CPI rate. Goods price inflation will ease as supply chains improve and business margins contract with higher inventories. Central banks will look through the first few weaker numbers but a case will build towards hikes slowing or even stopping which will be quickly factored in by markets.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-7.pdfJuly, 2022
The portfolio underperformed its benchmark by 0.17% (pre-fee) in July. Industrials, utilities and financials were a drag on performance. Activity during the month included reducing exposure to industrials and utilities sectors.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 0.50% to 0.85%, their first 50 basis point hike since February 2000 and resulted in the market pricing in a cash rate closer to 4% by the end of the year. Expectations were pared back following comments from RBA Governor Lowe which indicated that moves of 25 or 50 basis points were more likely than 75 basis points. In a rare interview Governor Lowe stated that following the rise in commodity prices since the May release of the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy that inflation is now seen as being at 7% by the end of 2022. The forecast in May was 5.9%.
The labour market continues to perform strongly. Employment grew by 60,600 jobs in May, with full time jobs adding 69,400 jobs and part time employment detracting slightly. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% due to the participation rate rising 0.3% to 66.7%. The minimum wage was increased during the month with the Fair Work Commission announcing a 5.2% increase, effective from 1st July. Other labour market indicators such as ANZ job ads and NAB’s business survey continue to point to ongoing strength.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-6.pdfJune, 2022
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 0.50% to 0.85%, their first 50 basis point hike since February 2000 and resulted in the market pricing in a cash rate closer to 4% by the end of the year. Expectations were pared back following comments from RBA Governor Lowe which indicated that moves of 25 or 50 basis points were more likely than 75 basis points. In a rare interview Governor Lowe stated that following the rise in commodity prices since the May release of the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy that inflation is now seen as being at 7% by the end of 2022. The forecast in May was 5.9%.
The labour market continues to perform strongly. Employment grew by 60,600 jobs in May, with full time jobs adding 69,400 jobs and part time employment detracting slightly. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% due to the participation rate rising 0.3% to 66.7%. The minimum wage was increased during the month with the Fair Work Commission announcing a 5.2% increase, effective from 1st July. Other labour market indicators such as ANZ job ads and NAB’s business survey continue to point to ongoing strength.
June saw credit spreads widen primarily driven by concerns that central banks would over-tighten and cause a recession. Markets aggressively increased expectations for future interest rate moves over the month on the back of 1) higher than expect inflation data, 2) hawkish central bank rhetoric, and 3) the growing risk of multiyear high inflation. • High inflation data - Inflation prints globally continued to rise above expectations. The US CPI release was broad based across many categories. The headline level reached 8.6%, the highest level for 40 years. The Eurozone’s inflation hit 8.8% for the month of May. In Australia, RBA governor Lowe revealed that he now expects Australian CPI to reach 7% later in the year.
• Central banks responded hawkishly to these inflation data points, reiterating their focus on controlling inflation with rate hikes as opposed to supporting economic growth. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that his commitment to fighting inflation is “unconditional” and that the “only way” to ease inflation is to balance supply and demand.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-5.pdfMay, 2022
The portfolio underperformed its benchmark by 0.09% (pre-fee) in May. Financials and utilities were a drag on performance. The RBA has finally joined the global central bank community (exJapan), hiking in May. Markets have taken a very aggressive approach to pricing future hikes, with rates priced to be at 2.75% by December and 3.5% by mid 2023. There are 7 more meetings this year so this implies hikes at each and every meeting with two of them being 50bp. The next two CPI numbers will help this narrative but we think the RBA may pause several times and expect rates at 2% by year end.
Despite markets expecting this few in the real economy expect rates 3% higher than here. There will be some mortgage stress along the way, especially in the recent cohort of mortgages which enjoyed the benefit of very low fixed rates and high loan to income ratios. Although this may be less than 10% of households it will have a large impact on both house prices and demand. We expect this to be a late 2022 and early 2023 story though as for now strong savings will provide some buffer to higher rates.
Overall we think that 3-year bonds at 3% represent medium-term value. Ten-year bonds near 3.5% will ultimately provide some value but we are concerned about upcoming inflation prints and higher US rates may weigh on the near term.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-4.pdfApril, 2022
The portfolio underperformed its benchmark by 0.17% (pre-fee) in April. Financials and industrials were a drag on performance. We have been more neutral on credit spreads over the last few months with a view that we will see short-term volatility in markets due to the rising global inflation fears and upcoming withdrawal of the money supply. This defensive positioning has assisted in reducing downside performance given the recent widening in credit spreads. In the near term, we expect continued market volatility as global central banks tighten monetary policy to combat higher inflation. The lockdowns and continued zero-COVID policy in China will likely add to supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and rising rates.
That said, we are still constructive on the medium-term outlook for credit spreads. Credit and broader risk assets will continue to benefit from the sustained global stimulus and strong fundamentals. Global economies continue to exceed growth expectations as pent-up consumer consumption continues to drive demand for goods and services. Demand led growth is positive for company earnings and beneficial for credit fundamentals.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-3.pdfMarch, 2022
The portfolio underperformed its benchmark by 0.30% (pre-fee) in March.
Financials, industrials, utilities, and supranational were a drag on performance. Activity during the month included increasing exposure to financials and supranational green bonds, supranational social bonds, and the insurance sector. We also invested in a new university green bond from the University of Tasmania.
Energy production from coal, gas, and oil is by far the biggest contributor to carbon emissions globally and in Australia. Green bonds have often tried to respond to this challenge by increasing the amount of energy coming from renewable sources and improving energy efficiency. This green bond issued by the University of Tasmania is interesting as they are responding to a different challenge than most. The state of Tasmania, due to hydroelectricity, is almost at full renewable energy. By 2040 Tasmania hopes to be exporting as much electricity from renewable sources as it currently uses. As such, the University of Tasmania has different objectives than many other green bonds. For their campus renewable projects which entail constructing new buildings across their campus, the university is seeking a minimum target reduction of 20% in upfront carbon emissions embedded in construction.
This is particularly notable as cement, a core component of most buildings accounts for around 8% of global emissions. For context, agriculture is around 12% of emissions. The University of Tasmania green bond highlights a decarbonization trend: as more easy-to-abate areas such as electricity become carbon neutral, other areas that are harder to reduce emissions from will need to be addressed. We are happy to support the University of Tasmania in addressing one of the next big challenges once energy sources are renewable. We are looking forward to more of these types of bonds in Australia as other jurisdictions increase renewables and can address new challenges to get to a net-zero world.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet-2.pdfFebruary, 2022
The portfolio underperformed its benchmark by 0.10% (pre-fee) in February. Financials, industrials and utilities were a drag on performance. Activity during the month included increasing exposure to senior RMBS whilst reducing exposure to insurance sub debt.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Regnan-Credit-Impact-Trust-Factsheet.pdfJanuary, 2022
The Fund underperformed its benchmark by 0.04% (pre-fee) in January. Supranationals and utilities were a drag on performance. Activity during the month included increasing exposure to supranationals whilst reducing exposure to bank sub debt.
This month we invested in a newly issued impact bond from the European Investment Bank (EIB), the supranational bank of the European Union. The EIB has a long history in impact bonds and was the first institution to issue green bonds in 2007. We have previously invested in the EIB’s Climate Awareness Bond which funds projects relating to climate stability. The new bond we’ve invested in is called a Sustainability Awareness Bond has a broader scope beyond climate stability to fund projects that relate to sustainability for the environment and for greater social outcomes for the disadvantaged. This includes water supply and wastewater management, protecting and restoring biodiversity, flood protection, education, health and housing. Previous projects have included water supply in Malawi, Covid-19-related emergency healthcare response and capacity in Italy and inclusive education in France. Through this bond we can help fund projects all around the world with little risk given the AAA rating of the EIB. We also invested in a newly issued impact bond from another supranational, the Asian Development Bank. This Health Bond will fund projects relating to healthcare around the world. This includes responses to Covid-19 and the flow-on consequences such as the capacity for other essential health services. Whilst obviously helping countries with their pandemic response has been a priority, through this bond the Asian Development Bank will also fund projects that provide healthcare access to women, primary health Brought to you by PENDAL services in rural areas and investments in infrastructure to enhance healthcare capacity. These projects are across Asia and the Pacific. We have previously invested in Green and Gender bonds from the Asian Development Bank.
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