BAR0814AU BlackRock Advantage Australian Equity Fund


June, 2023

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index registered a second positive quarter (+0.99%). April started with a pause in the RBA hiking cycle, which facilitated a strong start. This was soon followed with a surprise resumption of rate rises in May driving markets down, before encouraging inflation data in June saw some cautious optimism return. The end of the quarter saw inflation continuing to decline (+5.6% Y/Y vs +7% Y/Y at the end of March) – giving the market hope that the RBA was winning its fight – although this was tempered somewhat by the observation that the reduction was largely due to volatile items. While unemployment still hovers around low levels (3.6%) there are clear signs the economy is slowing – GDP data came in lower than expected (+0.2% Q/Q), and the latest NAB Business Confidence Survey registered a negative reading (-4 index points). Some retailers have warned of lower volumes and footfall, which has shown somewhat in the monthly retail spending data, except for the May numbers, which surprised to the upside (+0.7% M/M), however this is thought to be because of endof-financial-year sales and discounts. Despite the signs of a slowdown, the RBA has raised concerns over low productivity and wage increases, as well as the rise in house prices, that may put upward pressure on inflation.

Information Technology (+18.4%) led all sectors for the second quarter – driven by two companies: Wisetech Global (+22.5%) and Xero (+33.0%). Xero has been a star performer this year after announcing a cost restructure and delivering a solid update earlier in the quarter. Financials (+3.2%) also contributed significantly to performance. Banks (+1.8%) lost ground in May due to concerns around the effect of increasing funding costs on their net interest margins, however, optimism in June around the inflation outlook saw this clawed back. Insurance (+10.7%) also performed well in the quarter with promising outlooks for inflation and pricing power. Health Care (-3.1%) and Materials (-2.6%) were the worst performers of the month. Health Care was dragged lower by index heavyweight CSL, which gave an update toward the end of the quarter highlighting a slower-than-expected return to pre-covid margins, while Materials was dragged lower by Metals and Mining, which had a disappointing quarter off the back of an underwhelming Chinese recovery.

The strategy underperformed in the June quarter, though still posted a small positive active return over the financial year. After a positive start to the year the strategy pulled back over April and May, before a strong June. Overweights in Utilities added the most, with contribution from underweights in Consumer Staples (beverages) and Health Care (hospitals and biotechnology). However, this was not enough to overcome modest underperformance across a number of sectors; overweights in Consumer Discretionary (specialty retail), and Industrials (airlines), along with underweights in Energy (oil and gas) and Real Estate (industrial and diversified). The main source of detraction was Earnings Quality, notwithstanding the signal group drove the positive June performance, whilst Market insights and Relative Valuation added.

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May, 2023

A surprise RBA rate hike of 0.25% saw the S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index drop at the start of May and continue to fall throughout the month to register a 2.53% decline.

The RBA caught many people by surprise at the start of the month by raising the target cash rate to 3.85%, citing the need to bring inflation back down to target within a reasonable timeframe. During the month, retail spending came in slightly higher than consensus expectations (+0.4%), although this was driven primarily by food inflation with a pull-back seen in discretionary goods spending. Other signs of a cooling economy were exhibited by a slightly rising unemployment figure (3.7%) from its near five-decade low the previous month. These signs prompted chatter around another rate hike pause on June 6th, however, the increasing monthly inflation print (+6.8% y/y) at the end of the month, along with apprehension around the planned Fair Work Commission wage rises and lagging productivity, have called this line of thought into question.

Losses were posted in Consumer Discretionary (-6.2%) and Consumer Staples (-4.5%) – driven by concerns around the impact of interest rate hikes on retail spending. Materials (-4.4%), driven by Metals & Mining, also saw losses, as did Financials (-3.2%) where concerns around pressures on Net Interest Margins saw banks detract. Information Technology (+10.4%) was the big winner of the month with a broadbased positive performance across the sector with Xero (XRO) a significant contributor after announcing annual results.

The strategy underperformed in May through three main sectors; Financials (underweight insurers), Consumer Discretionary (overweights in specialty retailers, particularly as cost-of-living pressures came to the fore), and Materials (overweights in miners, an underweight in a lithium miner that merged, and underweights in construction materials). Modest outperformance came from a small number of sectors led by Utilities. Earnings Quality was the worst performing insight group, followed by Timing and Earnings Direction.

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April, 2023

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index returned to positive ways (+1.85%) after negative returns in February and March. Encouraging inflation data coupled with the RBA rate hike pause contributed to a more sanguine environment, albeit with caution still in the air.

April began with a pause in the rate hike cycle following a softer inflation print at the end of March and cooling retail spending for February (+0.2% m/m). While there was growth in food-related consumption, the results of discretionary spending in non-food sectors were mixed, with some suggesting higher rates and cost of living pressures are beginning to have a more noticeable effect. Elsewhere 53,000 people found work in March, exceeding expectations, and holding the unemployment rate at a near five-decade low (3.5%). The end of April saw softer inflation data with quarterly CPI to the March quarter coming in at 7% y/y (down from a 30-year high of 7.8% y/y in December) with commentators wondering whether this would be enough for the RBA to hold the Cash Rate in May.

Real Estate (+5.0%) was the biggest performer of the month driven by diversified, and retail REITs. Positive performance was broad across the market with Information Technology (+4.5%), Industrials (+4.3%), Communication Services (+3.6%), and Health Care (+3.6%) also gaining well. The only detractor was Materials (-2.6%) driven by poor Metals & Mining performance with weakness in steel, copper, and diversified metals.

The strategy underperformed over the month of April. Underweights in the strong Real Estate sector detracted, along with poor positioning in Industrials (overweight airlines, underweight transportation infrastructure). Most other sectors also detracted, with only Consumer Discretionary contributing significantly (overweight specialty retail).

After adding over the first quarter, Earnings Quality was the worst performing insight group, followed by the other Fundamental insight; Relative Valuation. Machine Learned Timing insights and Linkages signals within the Market insights group added a small amount over the month.

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March, 2023

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index registered another positive quarter to start 2022 (+3.3%). A strong start to the year gave way to a weaker earnings season in February, with concerns of a potential recession, followed by a flat March where global banking concerns resulted in Australian banks finishing lower for the month.

Inflation ended 2022 peaking at +7.8% for the year, travel (domestic and international) and electricity contributing, though the February monthly indicator showed the rate of inflation had slowed. The wage price index rose over the year (+3.3%), which was the highest gain in over 10 years but was also significantly below inflation. GDP over 2022 was positive at +2.7%, with some slowing in the rate over the last three quarters. Services exports and consumption contributed, though household spending moderated. The latest unemployment data showed the rate had fallen to 3.5%, while the participation rate and hours worked both increased. The Australian dollar rose at the start of the year, then gave it all back as the US dollar strengthened, finishing the quarter at US67.1c.

The Consumer Discretionary sector (+10.7%) led all sectors, helped by retailers and services. Communications (+9.5%) and Consumer Staples (+7.5%) also performed well. Gains in the Materials sector (+7.3%) were driven by the mining sector where gold and steel companies did best. Weakness in the banks, particularly during March, resulted in negative performance from Financials (-2.7%), with Energy (-1.0%) also detracting.

The strategy started 2023 well, posting positive alpha each of the three months in the first quarter. Consumer Discretionary overweights led the sector performance, followed by favourable positioning in the Energy sector. Overweights in Health Care (equipment, technology) and Industrials (airlines, logistics) also added. Detraction came through underweights in a couple of takeover targets in the Materials (mining) sector, as well as underweights across a number of Information Technology names. Earnings Quality insights added the most, with some contribution from Market insights. The other three insight groups detracted modestly.

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February, 2023

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index pulled back in February (-2.5%) after a strong start to 2023. Increasing concerns of a recessionary environment caused by central banks fighting inflation, and forecast earnings from local companies which highlighted slowing demand, contributed to the negative market views.

The month started with the RBA raising rates for the ninth consecutive time, the +0.25% increase taking the rate to 3.35%. The Wage Price Index gained a lower than expected +0.8% over the quarter, or +3.3% over the year, noting the significant drop in real wages when compared to the latest +7.8% inflation print. The unemployment rate was higher at 3.7%, as both the number of employed fell and the number of unemployed gained (seasonally adjusted). Strength in the US dollar, on expectations of potentially higher rates in the US, contributed to the Australian dollar falling over the month to US67.3c.

The main sector that drove the market fall was Materials (-6.7%), as miners generally underperformed – lithium names in particular. The other large part of the market Financials (-3.1%) also detracted, with the banking sector dragging. On the positive side, Utilities (+3.4%) bounced back and Information Technology (+2.3%) gained.

The strategy had another month of small outperformance, even though the broader market reversed over reporting season. Gains came from a number of sectors, including through overweights in Consumer Discretionary (hotels, restaurant and leisure) and Real Estate (office REITs). Overweights in Financials (capital markets, insurance, and services) were also additive. The main sector to detract was Materials, predominantly through positioning in gold miners. Sentiment (Earnings Direction and Market insights) drove the outperformance, whilst Earnings Quality detracted.

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December, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index finished 2022 with a very positive quarter, gaining +9.1%, even though the month of December was negative (-3.3%). Overall, the Australian market fared relatively well, finishing 2022 only -1.8% lower, helped by resource and larger market capitalisation companies. The year was very volatile, with four months having gains of near 6% or more, and three months with losses of -6% or more. Uncertainty came from many sources including inflation and central banks efforts to fight it, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and impact on supply chain and commodities, the slowdown in China and their covid policy, the broader global and local recovery from covid, and the potential for a global slow down. All of this contributed to a market which oscillated between pessimism and exuberance over the year.

At the start of each month of this quarter, the RBA raised rates 25 basis points, moving the cash rate to 3.10%; a rise of 3.0% since they started raising rates in May 2022. The September quarter showed positive GDP +0.6% taking the twelve month gain to +5.9%, with gains in each of the last four quarters. Inflation (CPI) was also higher +1.8% for the quarter, or +7.3% annualised, pushed up by housing, gas and furniture. Wages showed some sign of tightening; the Wages Price Index rising +1.0% over the quarter or +3.1% for the year, as unemployment remained low at just 3.5%. The Australian dollar was stronger over the quarter finishing at US67.8c by year’s end.

Every sector in the market finished higher over the quarter, led by the Utilities sector (+28.0%) which was boosted by a takeover bid for Origin Energy. Materials (+14.7%) did well, underpinned by strong performance of miners particularly those mining gold and iron ore, as well as the large diversified miners. The bank led Financials (+10.8%) and the Real Estate (+10.4%) sectors also posted double digit returns. Consumer Staples (+1.7%) only modestly gained with food retailers lagging. Similarly, Information Technology (+2.0%) was held back by hardware companies, and Health Care (+2.1%) by biotechnology and pharmaceutical names.

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November, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index had another strong month through November, gaining +6.5%, driven by strong performance by miners. Most global markets were higher on more positive sentiment around central banks potentially moderating the magnitude and pace of rate rises, and signs that China were loosening restrictions around
Covid. This contributed to gains in commodity prices, including iron ore, which helped the rise in the local market.

The RBA continued to raise rates, though at the slower pace of 25 basis points, taking the cash rate to 2.85%. They maintain they will observe the data to assess the impact of the recent raises before making future decisions. One of those metrics, wages, showed some increase, as the wages price index rose +1.0% for the quarter or +3.1% for the year. Unemployment, another key metric, also fell to 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month. However, retail trade was slightly lower (-0.2%) as most sectors were weaker, particularly department stores, with only food retail still higher. At the end of the month the rolling annual inflation print at 6.9% was lower than in previous month; the main contributors being new dwellings, automotive fuel, and fruit and vegetables. The Australian dollar gained consistently over the month finishing at US67.0c by month end.

Every sector in the market finished higher, led by gains in the Utilities sector (+20.8%) though that was boosted by a takeover bid for Origin
Energy. The Materials sector (+16.1%) was also a very strong performer, due to mining companies rallying on better metal prices, and the growing possibility of China reopening. Communications (+2.2%) was the worst performing sector, with Financials (+2.5%) also lagging the other sectors given banks only gained +1.5%.

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October, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index was higher through October, bouncing back +6.0%, as the Australian market joined a global equity market rally. Investors looking for any signs that the central banks would not cause a global recession in their fight to get inflation under control.

The RBA unexpectedly slowed the rate of increase on the cash rate to 25 basis points, taking it to 2.6%, as they wanted to assess the impact of the rapid rate rise so far on inflation and economic growth. September inflation reached its highest level since 1990, up +1.8% for the quarter, +7.3% for the prior 12 months. Over this period non-discretionary inflation has been the driver, including new dwellings, fuel and food; though automotive fuel prices actually fell -4.3% over the September quarter. Inflation also remains goods driven, as services inflation has remained relatively constant. Exports were lower, led by iron ore and coal, through lower demand from China, whilst gas and minerals contributed. The unemployment data for the month remained constant, the overall level steady at a low 3.5%. The US dollar remained strong, with the Australian dollar weakening slightly to US64.2c by month end.

The Financials sector (+12.1%) led the gains with strong performance from the banks. The Real Estate sector (+9.3%) also did well as specialised and retail related REITs outperformed. Energy (+9.1%) companies continued their positive run, with Consumer Discretionary (+8.8%) also posting solid gains. Slowing demand for iron ore saw those miners lag, dragging down the Materials sector (-0.2%), whilst supermarkets did the same to the Consumer Staples sector (-0.2%).

The strategy was flat over the month, with mostly positive performance dragged down by a stock specific event. Gains were made across the majority sectors, highlighted by Materials and Industrials. However, an overweight in Medibank Private led to underperformance from the Financials sector, after the health insurer reported a significant breach of their customer data. Contribution from Timing and Earnings Direction insights were offset by detraction from Earnings Quality and Market insights over the month.

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September, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained modestly over the September quarter, rising +0.5%. This masked a volatile journey as the index gained nearly +6% in July, and lost just over -6% in September. Whilst August was reporting season in Australia, the drivers for September performance were more around global concerns, including fears of a global recession induced by various central banks tightening as they combat rising inflation.

Locally the RBA continued to rapidly hike rates, taking the cash rate another 50bps higher to 2.35%, the fifth increase in a row. Inflation data over the quarter remained high at +1.8%, or +6.1% over the last 12 months, driven by new dwellings, fuel and furniture. Wages growth for the quarter at +0.7% meant the last year’s growth reached +2.6%, the highest rate since September 2014. Unemployment remained low, though gained slightly in August to +3.5% from the July low of +3.4%, with the August data also showing an increase in hours worked. Growth overall remained strong, as quarterly GDP was +0.9% higher, taking the yearly print to +3.9%, supported by export demand and domestic consumption even as the household savings rate fell. The US dollar was well supported, resulting in the Australian dollar falling to US65.0c.

Energy (+5.8%) was the strongest sector as the global energy market remained stressed. Health Care (+3.1%) and Information Technology (+2.4%) also saw some gains. Whilst the bigger Financials (+1.5%) and Materials (mining) sector (+1.4%) saw solid rises. The Utilities sector (-12.1%) was the worst performing sector for the quarter, followed by Real Estate (-6.4%). Infrastructure and toll roads within Industrials (-4.1%) lagged, as did supermarkets within the Consumer Staples sector (-3.0%).

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August, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index outperformed in August, gaining +1.2% after recording a large gain in July. Led by Resources, this was in contrast to most other markets which fell on global concerns of recession, caused by Central Banks’ efforts to combat inflation, a more hawkish US Fed, and a growing energy crisis in Europe. August was also reporting season in Australia, outlook statements were keenly observed, as investors looked for evidence of a company’s ability to maintain its margin, with a labour cost especially on the rise.

The RBA continued to hike rates, taking the cash rate another 50bps higher to 1.85%, the fourth raise in a row. The bank was expecting inflation to keep rising, to 7.75% over 2022 before falling through 2023-2024, and a lift in wages growth as firms compete in a tighter labour market. The unemployment rate fell to just 3.4%, though the participation rate was also lower at 66.4%, and increased sick leave taken and work missed due to the weather, including flooding, also played a part. Retail sales data surprised on the upside with increased spending over July across the majority of industries. US dollar strength saw the Australian dollar fall to US68.6c. Resources led the market higher as Energy (+7.8%) rebounded and miners helped the Materials sector (+4.5%). Real Estate (-3.3%) gave back some of its gains from the previous month, whilst the defensive sectors Consumer Staples (-1.7%) and Utilities (-1.6%) also lagged.

The strategy outperformed through the August reporting season, predicting earnings surprises with gains made being on the earnings announcement. Positive performance was seen across a number of sectors, notably favourable positioning in Industrials and Consumer Discretionary, as well as underweights in Information Technology. The Materials sector led the underperformance, as a miner (underweight) was bid for. Timing and Market insights led the way, with only Earnings Direction detracting.

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July, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index rebounded in July, gaining +6.0% after three consecutive months of falls, as global developed markets also finished the month higher. The market reversed with many of the beaten down sectors gaining sharply, whilst continued weakness in commodity prices hit the mining sector.

The latest inflation print saw the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rise +1.8% for the last quarter, translating to a +6.1% annual rate. New dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers (+5.6%), automotive fuel (+4.2%) and furniture (+7.0%) were the biggest contributors. The unemployment rate decreased to just 3.5%, whilst the participation rate increased to 66.8%. Though interestingly the underemployment rate actually increased to 6.1%, and monthly hours worked was slightly lower. As expected, given the higher inflation (which the RBA expects to peak at 7% this year) and the continued low unemployment, the central bank raised rates by 0.50% to 1.35%. The Australian dollar finished the month stronger at US70.1c.

Most sectors gained over the month led by a strong reversal in the Information Technology sector (+15.4%). Real Estate (+12.0%) was also higher, helped by Industrial REITs. Financials (+9.4%) also saw good performance from diversified financials and banks. The Materials sector (-0.4%) was the only sector to fall, dragged down by mining stocks, notably the big diversifieds, and packaging names. Energy (+2.2%) and Utilities (+3.1%) also lagged the broader market through July.

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June, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index finished the June quarter well down (-12.2%) largely due to the month of June during which the index fell -9.0%. Macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns continued to dominate markets, as investors adapted to central banks starting to hike rates to combat inflation; among others, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for the first time in over 11 years.

The possibility of a global recession saw commodities pull back towards the end of quarter, including oil which had been very strong year to date. The quarter started with inflation surprising on the high side, with a quarterly gain of +2.1%, or annually +5.1%; Housing (construction materials and labour shortages) and Transport (automotive fuel) being large components. GDP rose +0.8%, or 3.3% over the last 12 months, supported by mining and agriculture. Householding spending was also on the rise (+1.5%) over the quarter, as the household saving ratio declined. The unemployment rate remained a constant 3.9% over the last three prints. The RBA started raising rates, reaching 0.85%, the 0.50% increase in June surprising many economists. Expectations are that rates will continue to rise, as the bank committed to getting inflation back to its 2-3% target range, even as it forecasted that inflation may hit 7% by year end. The Australian dollar finished the quarter at US68.9c as the US Fed also raised rates and global uncertainty saw some strength in the US dollar

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May, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index finished another negative month in May -2.8% lower. Inflation, brought on by global supply chain issues, higher food, energy and dwellings prices, along with continued low unemployment and wages growth pushed the Reserve Bank to raise rates for the first time since 2010. May also saw a new Australian Federal government elected, with the Australian Labour Party winning a tight race, though there was a drop in overall support for both the major parties.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for the first time in over 11 years, pushing the key rate 0.25% higher to 0.35%. The unemployment rate remained below 4%, holding steady at 3.9%, with the expectation it could continue to fall. Wages growth was stronger at +0.7% for the quarter, +2.4% for the year. The strong employment expectations and wages growth increasing the likelihood of more rate rises. The Australian dollar finished the month close to where it started at against the US dollar, closing at US71.8c, though it belied a volatile month with the dollar falling below 69c mid-month before recovering

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April, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index finished April -0.8% lower, as market volatility increased over the month. There remained many sources of uncertainty, though rising global and local inflation, and concerns over rising rate expectations, were central to the market move. The key economic release in April was the inflation print which surprised on the high side. Quarterly increase was +2.1% which resulted in an annual rise of +5.1% – now the fourth consecutive quarter at +3% or above. Areas that contributed to the yearly rise included; New Dwellings, due to labour shortages and material costs, pushed up by supply chain disruptions; and Automotive Fuel which had the strongest annual gain for over 30years. Noteworthy too was that non-discretionary inflation (including food, automotive fuel, and housing) was at more than twice the rate of discretionary inflation. Earlier in the month the RBA had kept the cash rate unchanged at 0.10%, though included comments that could indicate the possibility of an upcoming rate increase; inflation being one of the key indicators they were watching. Another of the indicators, unemployment remained similar to the previous month at 4% with participation rates also unchanged. The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar, finishing the month at US71.5c.

More defensive sectors did well over the month, led by Utilities (+9.3%) across all of the different industries. Other positive sectors included Consumer Staples (+3.4%) through agriculture names and supermarkets, and Industrials (+3.0%) through transport and infrastructure. Information Technology (-9.9%) continued to struggle, and a pullback in miners saw Materials (-4.0%) also fall, with Consumer Discretionary (-3.5%) lower as internet names and gaming stocks struggled.

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March, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +2.1% over the quarter, recovering from the underperformance in January with very strong returns in March. Notably the gains have been relatively narrowly spread, focussed in larger commodity related names (Energy and Miners) and Banks. Market uncertainty continued, with considerations ranging from the February domestic reporting season, Federal Budget, floods and a looming election, to covid (omicron), inflation, central banks raising rates, supply chains, geopolitics, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Economic data releases were generally positive. GDP for the December quarter was +3.4%, rebounding from the negative September quarter, as domestic demand increased with the end of lockdowns, with no significant impact from the rise of the omicron variant. Inflation figures of +1.3% for the December quarter (+3.5% over 2021) was driven by transportation, mainly fuel, and new dwellings, impacted by material and labour shortages. Unemployment was very strong with the rate falling to just 4.0%, even as the participation rate rose to 66.4% and hours worked also climbed. The RBA maintained the cash rate at 0.10%, though announced they would end their bond-buying program, as expectations of future rate rises grew. Along with stronger commodity prices, this might have helped the Australian dollar gain against the US dollar, finishing the quarter at US74.8c

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February, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index rose +2.1% after a volatile month, with much of gains concentrated in Resources and Banks. After rebounding from the January lows, the index was unable to sustain the good performance and from mid-February started to fall. Even though February was reporting season in Australia, the market seemed to react more strongly to a jump in US inflation, raising concerns of increased Fed activity, which was then followed by geopolitical tensions, and subsequent escalation, in Ukraine. The month ending with investors seeking safe haven from the increasing uncertainty.

Economic data showed a strong rebound in the December quarter, as retail sales were higher, though cafes and restaurants still lagged. Wages remained strong with the unemployment rate also staying low. The January print for the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% however the impact of covid was noticeable as a drop in hours worked. At the first meeting of the year for the RBA, the central bank kept the cash rate at 0.10% and announced they would end their bond-buying program. The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar, finishing the month at US71.8c.

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January, 2022

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index started 2022 falling sharply (-6.5%) as developed markets globally faced potential central bank tightening to stem inflation concerns. This was particularly impactful for higher growth names trading on high multiples that were broadly sold off. Supply chain stress, including higher fuel costs, a significant contributor to the rise in prices. The omicron outbreak in Australia appeared to have peaked as case numbers fell, with some stabilisation in hospitalisations across the country. The month ended with BHP finalising its move to be primarily on the Australian exchange, making it the largest constituent of the index.

The key economic concern was inflation, as the CPI rose faster than expected; +1.3% quarter on quarter, and +3.5% year on year. On the RBA’s preferred measure the print was well within the longer term target band, and far from the levels on inflation observed in the US, as the US Fed started to change its rhetoric. Unemployment in Australia fell to just 4.2%, though the number was recorded before the full impact of the omicron wave was potentially felt. Still the 4.2%, at reasonably high participation rates, was the lowest monthly total since 2008. Given the higher inflation, lower unemployment, and a US Fed being more hawkish, the Australia dollar fell against the US dollar, finishing the month just over US70c.

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December, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index finished the quarter +2.2% higher, helped by strong December performance. Over 2021 the Index gained +17.5%, bouncing back after registering only a modest gain for 2020. After starting the quarter with two months of choppy performance, markets started to absorb better than expected economic data, improved outlooks and easing concerns of the impact of the omicron variant of COVID-19. Iron ore prices stabilised on the back of improving Chinese demand, and oil recovered from a mid-November slump triggered in part by the omicron outbreak.

Higher levels of vaccination in Australia saw an end to widespread lockdowns, increased mobility within the states, and domestic and international travel starting up again. Economic prints continued to beat expectations. Even though the September quarter GDP was -1.9% lower, this was still better than expectation given the extent of lockdowns in the Australian economy. Over the year the economy still managed to grow +3.9%. Unemployment also surprised on the upside, with an unemployment rate of just 4.6%, even as participation rates increased to 66.1%, with 366k jobs added. Both the RBA and the Federal Government, in its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), expected the unemployment rate to be sustained below 5% putting positive pressure on wages growth. Even as inflation came in at +0.8%, or +3.0% for the previous 12 months, the RBA announced they would maintain rates at 0.10% and continue buying bonds until there was evidence of sustained inflation.

Over the quarter the Australian dollar posted a small gain against the US dollar, finishing at US0.73c, though at the same time last year the exchange rate stood at US0.77c (Dec 2020). The Materials sector (+12.7%) was the top performing sector, driven by miners and stronger prices for metals. Utilities (+11.6%), helped by takeover activity, and Real Estate (+9.3%) also posted strong gains. Detraction came from the Energy sector (-7.3%) with the price of oil impacted by concerns of the new COVID-19 variant, and a cooling of very strong coal prices. Information Technology (-4.6%) performed poorly, particularly payment companies, as investors were concerned about generally high multiples in the space, against a backdrop of potentially rising interest rates.

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November, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index finished the month -0.5% lower. November started well as companies continued to update the market through AGM season, confirming that they are generally progressing through their recovery. However, global inflation concerns pushed markets back later in the month. Escalating covid case numbers and growing concerns of another covid wave through Europe were also headwinds. This was exacerbated with the emergence of the new Omicron covid variant, leading markets to retreat further in the last week of the month.

On the data front, the GDP fell by 1.9% for the September quarter reflecting the reduced economic activity due to the extended lockdowns across the major states, partly as household spending fell by 4.8%. Sentiment also declined suggested by the latest consumer confidence survey. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2% from 4.6% while the latest CPI footprint showed a 0.8% rise for the September quarter, taking the annual rate to 3.0%. Despite increased pressure to raise rates, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 10 bps and reiterated that it will remain at this level until inflation sustainably stayed within the target range. The Australian dollar weakened against the US dollar and finished the month at US0.71c.

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September, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +1.8% in the September quarter. Strong commodity prices helped the index find new highs in July despite the spread of the delta variant. The roll out of new restrictions and lockdowns across the country did not cause too much concern for equities which continued to trend higher through August in what was overall a positive reporting season for Australian companies. The market closed the quarter with its first monthly loss in a year as investors became worried over Evergrande in China while the decline in iron ore prices further weighed on the index.

The Australian economy continued its recovery in the June quarter and saw GDP growth of +0.7% thanks to limited impact from lockdowns. Domestic demand continues to be a key driver of this recovery. While below pre-pandemic levels, consumer spending increased by +1.1% in the June quarter, notably in services, reflecting the strong domestic tourism activity. The latest inflation footprint took the annual CPI to 3.8%, however, the RBA does not anticipate inflation to remain sustainably within its 2-3% target until 2024. As such, it maintained the cash rate unchanged at 10 basis points. The Australian dollar weakened against the US dollar and finished the quarter at US0.72c.

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August, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +2.6% for August, the 11th consecutive months of positive return for the local index, which has also been up 16 of the 17 months since the start of the pandemic. August coincided with earnings season when most Australian companies report their results for the full year. Overall, most companies reported well with more positive surprises than misses, however investors turned their focus on the forward guidance. The market saw some share price reaction reflecting the outlook rather than the results. Despite the progress in the vaccine roll out, uncertainty continues to weigh on the economy and an increasing number of companies have provided limited or no guidance – something we had also observed in the March reporting season.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged and confirmed that it would start tapering in September. Retail sales printed lower than expected at -2.7% for July as the Delta variant continued to see most strict lockdowns in parts of the country. Unemployment decreased to 4.6% however the underemployment rate increased, impacted by lockdowns across the country. The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar ending the month at US 0.73c

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July, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +1.1% for July as the market continued to find new highs, with gains in every month in 2021 so far. The mining sector led the way this time, lifted by strong commodity prices including iron ore. This was in contrast to the domestic economy with concerns from extended periods of lockdowns from the spread of the delta variant, the relatively low number of Australians vaccinated, and the vaccine rollout itself.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged even as it highlighted a better than expected recovery and the growing concern of housing prices. Inflation data was also high, as the price of petrol rose, and some government stimuli ended. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose +0.8% for the June quarter, and +3.8% over 12 months, though that was impacted by lockdown measures. The RBA’s preferred measure of core inflation gained +0.5% for the quarter and +1.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment rate fell to just 4.9%, however the underemployment rate increased, impacted by lockdowns across the country. The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar ending the month at US 0.74c

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June, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +8.5% in the June quarter and 28.5% for the financial year, the strongest return since 2007. The local index started the quarter with positive investor sentiment driving the market up. Despite inflationary concerns emerging in May, Australian equities continued their upwards trajectory as economic data continued to suggest stronger than anticipated recovery of the economy.

June saw the value rotation stall and investors moving back into growth stocks led the market up. Renewed fears around the spread of a more contagious Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus resulted in another round of lockdowns and border restrictions across the country. Economic momentum continued to be strong especially at the start of the quarter. The high-frequency forward-looking metrics, such as business confidence or consumer sentiment remain elevated, suggesting that the spot lockdowns might have limited impact on economic recovery.

On the data front, the latest Australian retail sales disappointed at 0.1%, missing the consensus expectations of 0.4%. Unexpectedly, the unemployment rate fell back to pre-pandemic level at 5.1%. As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at record low and suggested that there will likely be no hike until 2024 when inflation gets closer to the 2-3% target. The US dollar appreciated against most currencies as the Fed shifted its stance and the Australian dollar finished the quarter at a three-month low US0.75c

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May, 2021

As reflected by the strong retail sales data (+1.1% versus consensus +0.5%), the Australian economy remained on its recovery path through May. Unemployment continued to decrease with the unemployment rate falling from 5.6% in March to 5.5% in April. As anticipated, the RBA maintained interest rates at record low despite the better than expected recovery of the economy. The Australian dollar slightly weakened against the US dollar to finish at US0.77c.

Over the period, Financials (+5.7%) led the index with the major banks now performing at pre-covid levels again with insurance companies also having a strong run. Health Care (+3.5%) gained helped by the performance of a large name in the biotechnology industry. The consumer sectors outperformed the broader market with both Consumer Staples (+2.4%) and Consumer Discretionary (+3.2%) gaining; the latter benefitting from the favourable economic data despite the weakness of the ecommerce names. As anticipated, the Information Technology (-9.1%) struggled on the back of inflation concerns and the effect of bond yields on the valuation of growth names. Utilities (-6.6%), Energy (-1.5%) and Industrials (-1.1%) lagged with many of the commodity driven stocks retreating as the iron price fell.

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April, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +3.7% during the month. Positive investor sentiment generally continued to dominate markets. This was further evidenced by the opening of the trans-Tasman travel bubble which boosted the local index early in the month. The Australian market did not seem to react to the vaccination roll out news, now significantly behind on the original October target schedule. However, this trend reversed towards the end of the month in line with global equity markets with the surge in covid cases around the world.

The latest job data showed the creation of 70,000 new jobs helping the unemployment rate to fall further in March to 5.6% from 5.8% in February. The participation rate increased to 66.3%. Economic data saw strong retail sales growth +1.4% ahead of consensus for the previous quarter. Despite the strong economic recovery, the RBA reinforced its stance that rates will remain low for some time. The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar to finish at US0.78c

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March, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +4.2% in what was a rather volatile quarter. The local index started the year in a rally focusing on the strong economic and earnings recovery as we emerge from the shutdowns. The February reporting season was generally strong; however, the market saw some big moves. In expectation of the improved outlook for global growth as economies are slowly reopening, global bond yields have surged. While this could potentially be a headwind for risk assets, it has also exacerbated the growth-to-value rotation experienced over the past few months. As covid related restrictions eased, the Australian economy continued to recover. GDP rose +3.1% in the December quarter, taking the annual number to -1.1% (from -3.7% in September). The unemployment rate decreased in February at 5.8% from 6.3% in January. Inflation exceeded expectations with +0.9% increase for the December quarter (and +0.9% for the year) led by childcare costs and healthcare. The US dollar strengthened against most currencies on positive economic outlook and the Australian finished the quarter at a three-month low US0.77c.

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March, 2021

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February, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +1.5% in February. February can be a volatile month with Australian companies reporting their earnings. This year many companies recorded big moves after the disruption caused by the pandemic in 2020 and the lack of guidance they had provided. Overall, companies reported strongly with more beats than misses – perhaps due to the 2021 earnings revisions being overly conservative. As investors have become more hopeful about the reopening of the economy and prospect for future growth, bond yields have surged, disturbing equity markets in what had already been a rather eventful month.

The Australian economy rebounded quicker than expected. After growing +3.4% for the September quarter, the GDP was up +3.1% in the December quarter, better than the expected +2.5% and improving the annual GDP number to -1.1% (from -3.7%). The RBA vowed to keep the official cash rate at record low until the inflation target of 2-3 percent is reached, likely in 2024. However, the surge in residential property prices may result in a hike sooner than expected.

The Australian dollar continued to strengthen against the USD to finish the month at US0.78c Looking at sectors, Materials (+7.1%) led the index with a rally in mining stocks, supported by higher commodity prices. Financials (+5.1%) continued to benefit from the improved outlook for the banks while Energy (+2.5%) also gained during the month. The longer duration Tech companies struggled as expected in a rising yield environment, weighing on the Information Technology (-8.0%) sector while Utilities (-8.0%) and Consumer Staples (-4.5%) also underperformed the broader market.

The strategy gained in absolute terms; however it underperformed its benchmark during the month. Energy was the worst performing sector driven by unfavourable positioning as a result of the market rotation. A large overweight in food and staples retailing was the main source of underperformance in the Consumer Staples sector. Materials also suffered mainly through overweights in gold miners as the price of the precious metal dropped while overweight REITs were a drag on Real Estate. On a positive note, Utilities benefitted from underweight positions within the sector. Most insights detracted this month led by Earnings Quality and Market, followed by Relative Valuation while Earnings Direction added.

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January, 2021

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index slightly gained +0.3% in January. With the vaccine rollout gathering pace and the 2nd and 3rd waves of Covid having peaked, the market has been focused on the strong economic and earnings recovery as we emerge from the shutdowns. Central banks have vowed to remain extremely accommodative until we see a sustained recovery and despite inflation expectations starting to rise, they have indicated that they might be reluctant to raise interest rates and might tolerate inflation above 2% due to the many years of under shooting this target over the past decade.

Looking at the Australian economy, the latest inflation footprint exceeded expectations with healthcare and childcare costs driving the +0.9% increase for the December quarter, taking the full year CPI to +0.9%. Employment increased with the creation of 50,000 new jobs in December. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.6% while the participation rate remained steady at 66%. The Australian dollar finished the month slightly lower at US0.76c.

Consumer Discretionary (+4.8%) was the best performing sector boosted by strong household spending during the Christmas period. Financials (+2.3%) helped lift the local index thanks to the strong performance of the banks, reaching a 10-month high on increased dividend growth expectations. Likewise, Communication Services (+2.6%) and Consumer Staples (+2.0%) also gained during the month. Amongst the laggards, listed property stocks weighted on the Real Estate (-4.3%) sector as investors expect to see bond yields rise and the emergence of inflation this year. Industrials (-3.1%) also struggled, and so did the more defensive sectors, including Health Care (-1.7%) and Utilities (-0.1%).

The strategy slightly gained however it underperformed its benchmark during the month. Materials was amongst the worst performing sectors driven by unfavourable positioning within the metal and mining industry. Energy was another source of underperformance, especially due to underweights within the sector as the oil price trended higher. On the positive, Consumer Discretionary added thanks to overweights in specialty retailers. Amongst insights, Timing added the most, followed by Relative Valuation and Market while Earnings Direction and Earnings Quality detracted.

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December, 2020

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index performed strongly through the last quarter of 2020 rising +13.8%, ending the year +1.7% higher over the entire year.

The strong fourth quarter performance was driven mainly by strong gains in November, with the local market managing to hold on through a volatile December. Strength in iron ore prices and Chinese demand for steel served to boost resources, and local economic data showed continued signs of improvement. However, local community transmission of the coronavirus, rising trade tensions with China and increasing global rates of infection served to dampen the market towards the end of the year. Globally many other equity markets also posted double digit gains, on generally improving expectations due to vaccines and broad government stimulus into 2021.

Over the quarter the Australian economy continued to recover. Inflation returning for the September quarter (+1.6%), and GDP rising +3.3% technically ending the recession, though growth remained negative (-3.8%) over the previous four quarters. In November the RBA cut the cash rate to a historic low of 10 basis point and announced they would start buying government bonds. Unemployment at 6.8% for November, helped by the end of the Victorian lockdown, remained somewhat elevated, though encouragingly part of this was due to the rise in participation rate. The strength in commodity prices and a weakened US dollar helped push the Australian dollar higher, reaching US0.77c by the end of the year, even with the record low interest rate.

Over the quarter the Energy sector (+26.1%) was the best performing sector notably after the market rotation catalysed by the November vaccine news. Similarly, Financials (+22.8%) were helped with the large banks outperforming over the second part of the quarter, whilst a handful of strongly performing names helped the Information Technology (+22.8%) do well. The other big driver for the benchmark was mining, especially in iron ore, which helped push the Materials sector (+15.9%) higher. More defensive sectors struggled, including Utilities (-5.4%), and Health Care (-1.0%).

The strategy gained over the quarter; however it underperformed its benchmark. Over the past 12 months, the strategy was ahead of its benchmark. Materials was the worst performing sector during the quarter as the decline in the price of gold after the vaccine announcement hurt the overweight positions in gold miners. Consumer Discretionary detracted due to unfavourable positioning in gaming as well as overweight positions in specialty retailers heavily selling off during the market rotation.

Overweight positions in software hurt the Information Technology while underweight gas and oil names weighed on the Energy sector. The Financials sector was the biggest contributor mostly helped by overweight positions in banks which performed well after the vaccine news. All insights detracted this quarter, especially Timing and Market, followed by Earnings Quality, Earnings Direction and Relative Valuation.

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November, 2020

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +10.2% in November. While the successful containment of the virus with no local transmission across the country helped the rally, the local index – like its global peers – experienced a market rotation after the announcement of a potentially successful Covid vaccine by Pfizer.

This resulted in some large moves as investors shifted from growth names into value stocks and cyclicals, fuelling markets across the globe. Despite the increased volatility, headwinds from the US presidential election results, escalating trade tensions between China and Australia and even a technical issue forcing the local market into closure for a day, Aussie equities had a stellar month, their best month in 30 years.

During the month, the RBA cut the cash rate to a historic low of 10 basis point and revealed that it will be buying $100 billion of government bonds over the next six months. This is part of the latest package to support job creation and help the economy recover from the pandemic. Encouraging economic data suggests that the near-term outlook for the Australian economy might better than expected, however, the country still faces a prolonged period of high unemployment.

The unemployment rate slightly increased to 7.0% in October (from 6.9% in September) with a higher increase amongst the youths, increasing to 15.6% over the month, while the participation rate increased to 65.8%. The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar and finished the month at US0.74c.

Looking at sectors, Energy (+28.2%) was the best performing sector for the month benefiting from the market rotation. Financials (+16.1%) were another beneficiary of the shift in investors’ sentiment while Real Estate (+13.2%) also performed strongly after the RBA cut interest rates.

Communications Services (+14.3%) also had a strong month with most names outperforming the broader index. Consumer Staples (-0.7%) was the only sector to finish in the red as a number of names were heavily sold off during the market rotation. Other defensive sectors, including Utilities (+1.5%), Health Care (+2.9%) and Information Technology (+4.1%) also suffered from investors’ shift to value and lagged the broader market.

The strategy gained over the month; however it underperformed its benchmark. It continued to outperform over the past 12 months and year to date. Health Care was the biggest detractor due to unfavourable positioning after investors moved away from the more defensive sectors.

The market rotation also hurt the consumer sectors. Overweights specialty retailers and underweights gaming were a drag on Consumer Discretionary while Consumer Staples suffered from the poor performance of the supermarkets (overweights). As the vaccine news weighed on the price of gold, overweight positions in gold mining companies dragged on Materials while overweights electric utilities hurt Utilities.

The Financials sector was the biggest contributor, led by overweight positions in banks as well as favourable positioning in capital markets. Energy also added thanks to a large overweight in an energy equipment and services name. All insights detracted this month, especially Timing and Market, followed by Earnings Quality, Earnings Direction and Relative Valuation.

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October, 2020

The S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index gained +1.9% in October. Australian equities started the month with a rally, fuelled by promising Covid numbers in Victoria – which subsequently saw the end of the 112-day lockdown and the reopening of the economy. Later in the month, the local index moved in line with global markets, pulling back as concerns over a second wave became more apparent in Europe and in the US. Both regions reached record numbers of new covid cases and the market started to anticipate that the major European economies could enter a second lockdown. Stock markets faced further uncertainty with the upcoming US presidential election.
After falling -1.9% in the previous quarter, the latest inflation footprint came in at +1.6% for the September quarter. This was largely attributed to the significant increase in childcare costs following the end of free childcare on 13 July. The unemployment rate also increased to 6.9% in September (from 6.8% in August) with the loss of 29,500 jobs. The participation rate decreased to 64.8%. The RBA maintained the cash rate unchanged at 25 basis points, however, there were increased expectations of an interest rate cut at the November. The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar and finished the month at US0.70c.

Looking at sectors, the Information Technology (+8.6%) was the best performing sector for the month. Financials (+6.3%) benefitted from the expectation that the RBA might cut interest rates in the near term. The consumer sectors also finished the month higher with the major supermarkets helping Consumer Staples (+4.5%) while continued demand for specialty retailers contributed to the performance of Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%). On the negative, Industrials (-3.5%) was the worst performing sector led by transportation infrastructure names while unfavourable commodity prices continued to be a drag on the Utilities (-1.5%), Materials (-1.1%) and Energy (-1.0%) sectors.

The strategy recorded a small positive month and continued to perform well year to date. The Financials sector was the biggest contributor by far, led by overweights in capital markets as well as a number of banks. More modest contribution came from an overweight in Utilities and overweight supermarkets and an underweight in a food producer within Consumer Staples. Overweights in Consumer Discretionary detracted, as did overweight Energy names. Earnings Direction insights were again positive, with some help from Timing insights. The biggest detraction came from Market insights, as trends suffered in the face of uncertainty from the US election and second waves of the pandemic globally.

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ticker: BAR0814AU
commentary_block: Array
factsheet_url:

 

https://www.blackrock.com/au/individual/products/254830/blackrock-blk-scientific-australian-equity-fund

 

Literature -> Fund Update


release_schedule: Monthly
fund_features:

BlackRock Advantage Australian Equity is an outstanding choice for investors seeking low-tracking-error quantitative equities exposure at a very low price. The Fund aims to achieve superior investment performance through providing returns that exceed those of the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index by 2.20% p.a., after fees, over rolling 3-year periods, while maintaining a similar level of investment risk to the Index.

  • Minimum initial investment is $50,000.
  • Suitable for long-term investors seeking a broad exposure to the Australian stock market.
  • Considered a high risk.
  • Quarterly distribution frequency

manager_contact_details: Array
asset_class: Domestic Equity
asset_category: Australia Large Blend - Core / Style Neutral
peer_benchmark: Domestic Equity - Large Cap Neutral Index
broad_market_index: ASX Index 200 Index
structure: Managed Fund