PPL0115AU Antares Elite Opportunities Fund


September, 2023

The Australian market was not exempt from the decline in global shares. The Real Estate and Information Technology sectors led the market declines given concerns about the impact of higher interest rates for longer. Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary sectors were sold down on worry about the consumer’s ability to tolerate higher inflation and interest rates. The Resources sector proved more resilient given the surprising rise in iron ore prices to US$120 per ton despite a weak Chinese property sector. The only positive sector was Energy on the back of higher oil prices.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -3.2% (net of fees) for the month of September 2023.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Santos (STO), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) and ANZ. The higher oil price helped boost the Santos share price. TWE shares received a fillip when Australia’s Prime Minister and China’s Premier met for constructive talks on Chinese tariffs, with wine one of the areas that was discussed. ANZ shares posted a small increase in September. Reports are that ANZ had been steadily increasing its market share having overcome prior difficulties with its lending systems that had resulted in lengthy processing times.

Detracting value were overweight positions in Block Inc (SQ2), Goodman Group (GMG) and CSL. SQ2 suffered a small outage in its Square Seller retail point of sale equipment globally which hurt sentiment, while the march up in longer duration interest rates hurt its valuation as discount rates spiked, disproportionately impacting longer duration equities such as SQ2. GMG shares were weaker in September on no particular news. Property related stocks were sold down as bond yields moved higher. CSL shares have continued their post results weakness.

Australia’s economy continues to display significant signs of slowing down with inflation concerns. Retail spending is subdued as consumers struggle with the squeeze from higher prices, rising mortgage interest rates and rents. Consumer annual inflation rose from 4.9% in July to 5.2% in August largely on the back of higher fuel prices according to the ABS monthly indicator. Employment has been a positive surprise with strong job gains in August despite lower vacancies. The Reserve Bank again held the cash interest rate steady at 4.1% but maintained guidance that further interest rate rises may be required to get inflation back to their target range of 2% to 3%.

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August, 2023

Australian shares disappointed in August with a mild decline given concerns over China’s prospects as well as the Australian consumer. The Utilities and Consumer Staples sectors led the market declines given concerns about the consumer’s ability to absorb higher electricity & gas prices as well as rising mortgage interest rates and rents. Information Technology declined in line with a more cautious view after their recent strong gains. Despite a rebound in the iron ore price to above US$110 per ton, the Resources sector posted a -1.8% negative return with concerns over China’s prospects. There were some positives with surprisingly strong gains for Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate on hopes that the Reserve Bank has ceased raising interest rates.

August is also reporting season for most Australian companies and while results were largely in line with expectations, the prospect of rising costs and a slowing economy saw reasonably soft guidance for the FY24 year which flowed through to earnings downgrades.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund returned -3.0% (net of fees) for the month of August 2023.

Detracting from performance were overweight positions in Iress (IRE), Resmed Inc (RES) and Block Inc (SQ2). IRE’s result was accompanied by its fourth material earnings downgrade in 12 months, citing cost pressures and a weaker revenue outlook. The company also announced that it would suspend its interim dividend.

RES’ 4Q result was below market expectations, driven by lower margins and higher costs. There is also some concern that the increased use of Ozempic for weight loss could reduce the prospect of sleep apnoea and subsequent demand for RES’ machines. Compounding this was the release of clinical trial results by Novo Nordisk, the manufacturer of Ozempic that indicated another of its weight loss products, Wegovy, could reduce the risk of serious heart problems and heart-related death by 20%. Having risen by more than 21% in July, SQ2 shares were sold down in August after reporting its 2Q23 results. This was despite the company exceeding expectations and upgrading full year EBITDA guidance. The decline appears to be driven by the outlook provided by management whereby 3Q23 gross margins were decelerating, as well as overall macroeconomic

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July, 2023

Australian shares made strong gains on lower inflation and hopes that China will pursue more stimulatory policy settings. The energy sector led the market gains as oil prices surged. Financial shares also rebounded with optimism that the Reserve Bank interest rate hiking cycle was coming to an end. Information Technology continued to perform well, fuelled by the mania for AI related shares.

Resources shares gained on China stimulus hopes. But there was some weakness in the Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors given concerns that the Australian consumer is struggling.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 2.9% (net of fees) for the month of July 2023.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Block Inc (SQ2) and Seek (SEK) and not owning Woolworths (WOW). Despite limited stock specific news, SQ2 shares rallied 21.4% as part of the risk-on trade and more positive Sector allocation sentiment on the resilience of the US consumer. SEK benefited from a shift in thinking about the macroeconomic environment. The market has previously been concerned about SEK’s volumes if the unemployment rate were to increase. While attending a parliamentary committee, WOW noted that shoppers had been moving to cheaper home brands on every day essentials as cost pressures rise. Our channel checks also indicate that discounting is increasing.

Detracting value were overweight positions in IGO Limited (IGO) and CSL and not holding a position in Woodside Energy (WDS). IGO provided a strong Q4 production and sales update. However, the company also gave FY24 production and capex guidance, of which the latter disappointed the market as it was significantly ahead of expectations. The 14.2% rise in the Brent Crude USD price during July was reflected in a buoyant performance by WDS shares. CSL’s share price has continued to languish since issuing disappointing FY24 guidance in June following news that margin recovery in its Behring plasma collection division would take longer than the market expected.

Australia’s economy is giving mixed signals with robust jobs growth and moderating inflation being countered by weak retail spending. There were strong employment gains in June as the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% - essentially a 50-year low. Consumer price pressures also moderated in the June quarter with annual inflation coming in at 6.0%. However, the looming price rises for electricity and residential rents in the new financial year still suggest that inflation is a concern. For consumers, the squeeze on budgets from high inflation and rising interest rates has negatively impacted spending as evidenced by the sharp fall in June retail sales. While the Reserve Bank held the cash interest rate steady at 4.1% in July, it guided that further interest rate rises may be required to reduce inflation.

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June, 2023

Australian shares made mild gains in June given signs that inflation pressures were abating and hopes that China will pursue more stimulatory policy settings. The Resources sector surged on China growth hopes with strong gains in iron ore prices. The Information Technology sector also made strong gains on the back of investors’ enthusiasm for anything remotely connected with AI. Financials rebounded, reversing May’s weakness with signs of resilience in the Australian economy mitigating credit risks. Healthcare was weak as investors became more cautious about the sector’s prospects.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 1.1% (net of fees) for the month of June 2023.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Downer EDI (DOW), Immutep (IMM) and IGO Limited (IGO). Late in the month, DOW announced it had been awarded the contract to build and maintain Queensland’s new rollingstock project. This is expected to result in revenue of approximately $4.6bn for DOW. IMM announced it had been granted a US patent for IMP 761 which it describes as having the potential to address the root cause of many autoimmune diseases. The company also announced that following the successful placement of shares with institutional investors at the end of May which raised $67.9m, it had also completed a retail offer for a further $6.5m. Sentiment toward the clean energy sector has been boosted by M&A activity as well as rising prices for lithium carbonate. Also, during June, IGO announced the appointment of Ivan Vela as the new permanent CEO. He has a distinguished career in the mining and resource sector with experience spanning multiple commodities, diverse geographies and markets. Mr Vella has spent the last 20 years with Rio Tinto (RIO) most recently as chief executive aluminium and a member of the RIO executive committee.

Detracting value were overweight positions in CSL and Northern Star (NST) together with not owning Fortescue Metals (FMG). CSL provided a trading update indicating currency headwinds would impact its FY23 result. More significantly it noted margin recovery in its Behring plasma collection division would take longer than the market expected, as both donor fees and labour cost inflation remain higher than anticipated. This meant that CSL’s FY24 guidance was below consensus and the stock was sold down. NST announced a $1.5bn expansion of its KCGM Mill during the month which it stated would be funded from cash and forecast cashflow and would double its processing capacity. However, NST shares finished lower for the month as did the gold price. Optimism that further stimulus would drive Chinese growth saw the iron ore price spike and so too FMG’s share price.

Australia’s economy has displayed more positive signs with strong jobs growth, a rebound in retail spending and inflation moderating. May saw Australia’s employment expand by a robust +75,900 jobs and the unemployment rate edge down from 3.7% to 3.6%. Consumers were also more willing to raise their retail spending in May but this also reflected promotional activity and sales events according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Consumer price pressures moderated in May with annual inflation coming in at 5.6% compared to 6.8% for April. However, the looming strong rises in electricity costs and residential rents in the new financial year suggest a painful squeeze on consumer budgets. The Reserve Bank again surprised with another 0.25% interest rate hike in June taking the cash interest rate to 4.1% in the hope of returning inflation back to its 2% to 3% target range.

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May, 2023

Australian shares fell in May as lower commodity prices, higher interest rates and weak consumer spending cautioned investors. The sharpest falls were in the consumer discretionary and staples sectors given signs of a retail recession for consumer spending. The combination of higher mortgage interest rates, rising rents and stubborn inflation pressures is squeezing purchasing power. There was also notable weakness in the resource sector given lower coal and iron ore prices on China concerns. Financials also disappointed given the prospect of lower profit margins with higher deposit interest rates and more sedate credit demand. Echoing the US market and the surge of investment interest in anything remotely related to artificial intelligence (AI), the Australian Information Technology sector posted a double-digit gain for May.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -1.9% (net of fees) for the month of May 2023.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in James Hardie Industries (JHX) and Santos (STO) together with not owning NAB. JHX’s share price improvement post results reflects better than expected earnings margins and 1Q24 earnings guidance. It also appears that the US housing market has bottomed leading to improved investor sentiment towards housing related stocks. The onset of cold weather and strong spot gas prices has boosted sentiment for gas producers. Several of STO’s plants that experienced outages early this year, including Moomba and Varanus island, have recovered, removing concerns about production. Supply disruptions for competitor Beach Energy may have been another positive for STO sentiment. NAB shares were under pressure after the bank released its first half results for 2023. Despite some positives, including a lift in dividend, the market reacted to comments from the bank on the impact of lower house prices and volume growth amid increased competition. This was reflected in a $393m credit impairment charge.

Detracting value were overweight positions in IDP Education (IEL) and South 32 (S32) together with not owning Woodside Energy (WDS). IEL shares were sold off sharply on news that the Canadian government was opening the English testing in the Student Direct Stream market to other providers. With prices for major commodities and metals falling in May on concerns about Chinese demand, it was not surprising to see S32’s share price also finish the month down, particularly after flagging higher costs in its most recent quarterly report. The strong spot gas price and positive sentiment for gas producers combined with reports that LNG cargo liftings from the North West Shelf and Wheatstone are tracking ahead of consensus forecasts for 2Q23 were positives for WDS.

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April, 2023

Australian Shares made solid gains in April given the global share rebound and signals from the Reserve Bank for a pause in raising interest rates. The strongest gains were from the AREITs which benefitted from the lower rates and the Information Technology sector which followed its global peers higher. The Resources sector was dragged down by the Materials stocks as iron ore prices corrected on weak steel demand, but this was partly mitigated by gains in Energy and Gold stocks.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 1.8% (net of fees) for the month of April 2023. Contributing to performance was an overweight position in Northern Star (NST) together with decisions not to own Rio Tinto (RIO) or Fortescue Metals (FMG). NST shares continued to rally together with the gold price as investors again sought refuge in the precious metal following the US banking crisis. Despite some positive economic signals from China, steel demand was weak which saw iron ore and metals prices drop in April – as did both RIO and FMG shares.

Detracting value were overweight positions in BHP, Block (SQ2) and South32 (S32). BHP shares also declined on lower iron ore and metals prices. SQ2 shares fell on the release of research from a short seller which alleged that many of the cash app accounts on the SQ2 platform were fraudulent or used for nefarious purposes. Having read the report and following additional disclosure from SQ2, as well as a number of discussions with US based analysts and benchmarking of payment issues as disclosed by major US banks such as Bank of America, we do not agree with the short seller’s research. S32 released its quarterly production report during the month revealing that wet weather across many of its operations had adversely impacted production and costs had increased. Although the company noted it achieved higher prices across most commodities and retained much of its full-year guidance the stock was sold down.

Australia’s economy still appears to be softening. Despite the pause in rate rises in April, consumers have reasons to be cautious given still high inflation and the impact of higher interest rates, particularly for those coming off fixed rate mortgages onto variable rate mortgages. Although below previous quarterly increases, first quarter 2023 CPI rose by 1.4%, taking annual inflation to 7.0%. The job market remains resilient and the unemployment rate is still historically low, but caution prevails over confidence in regard to our outlook for 2023.

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March, 2023

Australian shares slipped into negative territory in March. The sharpest falls were in the real estate and financial sectors given the turmoil in the global banking system and lower bond yields. However, strength in the resource sector on hopes of a Chinese economic recovery helped limit the downside in Australian share markets. There were also gains for communications, consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors on hopes that the Reserve Bank would pause on further interest rate increases.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 0.2% (net of fees) for the month of March 2023.

Contributing to outperformance was an overweight position in Northern Star (NST) together with decisions not to own NAB and Macquarie Group (MQG). Northern Star (NST) shares rallied during the month as the US banking crisis saw gold prices increase by 8%. The company provided an update on its Pogo Operation Sector allocation in Alaska where gold production was halted in order to repair damage to the ball mill motor that was discovered during routine repairs. While the disruption is expected to impact production by 20-40k oz in FY23, the company’s production guidance remains unchanged. The global banking turmoil impacted the sector in Australia and NAB and MQG shares were not exempt.

Detracting value were overweight positions in APM Human Services (APM) and Goodman Group (GMG) together with the decision not to own Newcrest Mining (NCM). Despite announcing several new north American contracts during the month, APM shares have continued to languish. There was no company news from GMG during the month, although sentiment towards the real estate sector was generally negative. NCM shares were beneficiaries of the higher gold price and were underpinned by the scrip takeover offer of former owner and gold producer, Newmont.

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January, 2023

Australian shares made strong gains in January. Most notable were the consumer discretionary and real estate sectors on hopes that the cycle of rising interest rates was nearing an end. The resource sector continued its recent strong performance given rising iron ore and metal prices on China recovery hopes. Consumer staples, information technology and financial sector shares also performed well. The only negative sector was Utilities but this comes after robust gains in recent months.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 6.9% (net of fees) for the month of January 2023.

Contributing to outperformance were overweight positions in Northern Star (NST), Goodman Group (GMG) and South32 (S32). The (USD) gold price rose by nearly 6% in January, building on its recent strength on the expectation of a slowdown Sector allocation on the pace and size of rate hikes. NST shares were beneficiaries. The property sector was one of the best performers in January as the interest rate outlook moderated. GMG shares were keenly sought, also benefitting from their positioning as a growth stock hence a beneficiary of the compression in the long bond yield. S32 shares were stronger on a good quarterly report as well as being buoyed by increases in the prices of its key commodities including aluminium, copper and zinc.

Detracting value were overweight positions in Santos (STO) and Incitec Pivot (IPL) and not owning Macquarie Group (MQG). STO shares were weaker on a dip in the oil price and news that its Narrabri project may be delayed by an appeal from the Gomeroi people in relation to native title consent for drilling. There was no corporate news from IPL in January. However softer ammonia prices following a warmer than expected winter in Europe saw less gas demand and lower prices which had a flow-on effect to nitrogen pricing (including for ammonia) that may have contributed to IPL’s share price weakness. There was no particular news from MQG during the month. Given its leverage to markets, MQG is often viewed as a market proxy hence its shares bounced back strongly as did global indices in January.

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December, 2022

Australian shares declined sharply in December. All sectors posted negative returns with the sharpest falls in consumer discretionary and information technology given concerns over growth prospects. Industrials also disappointed given rising interest rates and bond yields. The resources sector was more resilient as iron ore prices rose on China’s recovery hopes.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -4.0% (net of fees) for the month of December 2022.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Northern Star (NST) and decisions not to own Macquarie Group (MQG) or Pilbara Minerals (PLS). NST shares performed well as the gold price continued to increase in December, building on the November gains. In the absence of any stock specific news, MQG sold off on the broader market retreat. Given its leverage to markets, MQG is often viewed as a market proxy and came under selling pressure as global indices Sector allocation retreated over the month. Lithium stocks, including PLS, were again weaker in December on concerns about the outlook for lithium prices on falling demand for electric vehicles.

Detracting value were overweight positions in APM Human Services (APM), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) and IGO. APM shares dropped sharply in December on the back of mixed news flow. The company announced the acquisition of Everyday Independence, a mobile allied health business which is complimentary to APM’s existing capability and is expected to be EPS accretive from the first year. But a slower than expected ramp up of the UK contract and higher interest costs saw some analyst downgrades and heavy volume traded in the stock. Nonetheless we believe APM is a high-quality operator in a fragmented industry with a history of transitioning successfully through program changes. ALL shares have remained under pressure following the relatively subdued FY23 guidance provided by the company. As well as the general sell down of lithium stocks on fears of falling demand for electric vehicles, IGO announced that a fire in the power station used by its Nova operation would result in production and processing delays.

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November, 2022

Australian shares delivered strong gains in November. The sharpest gain was in the Utilities sector given signs that inflation and interest rate pressures were moderating. The Resources sector also surged given the strong rally in iron ore and base metal prices on hopes that China’s economic growth should revive with a less restrictive Covid strategy. There were also solid gains for healthcare, industrials and real estate given lower bond yields.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 4.6% (net of fees) for the month of November 2022.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Northern Star (NST) and Goodman Group (GMG) together with the decision not to own NAB. The gold price enjoyed its strongest rise since May 2021, increasing by over 8.0% during November. The prospect of the Fed moderating the pace of interest rate hikes was supportive and gold producers, including NST rallied. GMG provided an Sector allocation update to investors retaining its FY23 EPS guidance of an 11% increase on FY22.

The company noted rental growth was very strong and first quarter completions were 100% pre-let on strong margins. NAB released its FY22 result in November with higher cash profits and dividend. However, the company flagged that competition in housing lending was likely to intensify and that funding costs were expected to rise. Its shares finished down for the month.

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October, 2022

Australian shares made a strong recovery in October.The sharpest gains were in financial sector shares given solid credit demand and assurances from the Reserve Bank (RBA) that business and household balance sheets were in strong shape.

The real estate and consumer discretionary sectors also made robust gains reflecting the comforting commentary from the RBA. There was also a favorable performance from the energy sector on continuing concerns about global supply.

The resources sector was more subdued with a slight gain given worries about global economic activity prospects. The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 6.0% (net of fees) for the month of October 2022.

Contributing to performance was an overweight position in Westpac (WBC) together with decisions not to own Fortescue Metals (FMG) or Rio Tinto (RIO). Attractive deposit pricing coupled with solid credit demand and some evidence Sector allocation that institutional investors were reducing their underweight to the sector saw double digit rises from the big 4 banks in October. FMG and RIO shares were weaker as the iron ore price fell sharply to US$82/Mt in October. This was due to higher supply levels from Brazil which coincided with seasonally lower steel demand in China.

Detracting value were an overweight position in Medibank Private (MPL) and decisions not to own NAB or Woodside Energy (WDS). MPL shares finished the month down 19.0% after the company announced it was subject to a cyberattack. While the company expects a relatively small impact on its current half year earnings, costs relating to remediation and possible litigation are not included. Investors were also concerned about the potential for loss of customers and brand damage. WDS shares rose by more than 13% as EU trade embargos and continuing concerns about global supply pushed Brent Oil prices up by US$7 to US$95/bbl.

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September, 2022

Australian shares proved sensitive to the global market turmoil as well as the Reserve Bank (RBA) raising interest rates. The ASX’s sharp decline was spread across the board, with all industry sectors recording falls. The weakest performances came from the utilities and real estate sectors given their acute sensitivity to rising interest rates and bond yields. Other sectors hit hard included information technology where valuations are also rate sensitive, industrials and consumer discretionary. More resilient but still in the red was the Resources sector which benefitted from the lower Australian Dollar counteracting the slide in key commodity prices such as iron ore and metals

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -5.0% (net of fees) for the month of September 2022.

Contributing to outperformance were overweight positions in IGO Limited (IGO) and ANZ together with the decision not to own Macquarie Group (MQG). IGO has continued to performed well as demand for lithium remains strong and is reflected Sector allocation in spodumene prices. Further, IGO’s nickel assets also contributed as prices for the base metals strengthened materially. ANZ’s share price has lagged the other majors in calendar 2022 but did considerably better in September. The company described its 3Q result as pleasing with improved margins across all businesses and tight cost management. MQG’s heavy capital markets exposure combined with the adverse impact on investment banking/advisory activity as mergers & acquisition and new listings activity slows has seen the stock out of favour in September.

Detracting value were overweight positions in Goodman Group (GMG) and Santos (STO) together with the decision not to own Pilbara Minerals (PLS). GMG like the rest of the AREIT sector was impacted by higher bond yields and broader uncertainty in global markets. Concerns that demand could be softening in the US and beyond were fuelled after FedEx issued a profit warning and said it would be shutting offices as a result of weaker volumes globally. The oil price was weaker in September falling by more than 7%. This flowed through to the Santos share price. Lithium producer PLS has been one of the most stellar performers on the ASX as strong global demand for lithium has seen prices rocket. During September the company announced it had achieved increased prices for its spodumene concentrate at its battery metal exchange auction.

Australia’s economy continues to appear resilient judging by the solid results for business surveys, the labour market and retail spending. August recorded solid job gains, healthy business surveys and robust retail spending. However, the dramatic acceleration in inflation is concerning with the CPI showing 6.8% annual inflation in August. Strong annual price rises were recorded for new housing construction (20.7%), fruit and vegetables (18.6%) and automotive fuels (15.0%). The Reserve Bank raised the cash interest rate by a further 0.5% to 2.35% in September and also signaled the expectation to increase interest rates further over the months ahead.

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August, 2022

Australian shares outperformed most global markets with the S&P/ASX 200 delivering a small gain. Energy shares and Resources led the market given continued strong demand for gas and coal in the wake of Russian supply concerns and the ongoing push for decarbonisation. There were modest gains also for communication shares and industrials. However, the AREITs were weaker given the sensitivity to rising interest rates and bond yields.

August is also reporting season for most Australian companies and this year it was better than feared. Pressures from labor shortages, wage inflation and fuel costs were in line with expectations, however some companies showed resilient revenue growth. Outlook statements were generally not as gloomy with some companies demonstrating effective pricing power.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 2.0% (net of fees) for the month of August 2022.

Contributing to outperformance were overweight positions in IGO Limited (IGO), Santos (STO) and South32 (S32). IGO Ltd (IGO) performed well in August. While its result was largely in line with its pre-released production report in July, lithium prices surged in July, and IGO was a beneficiary. STO announced a higher dividend and increased on-market share buyback from $250m to $350m. STO is leveraged to domestic gas and global LNG markets and thus is a beneficiary of the very strong gas price. S32 delivered a record result with strong cashflow enabling an increase in dividend and capital management.

Detracting value were overweight positions in Seek (SEK) and Goodman Group (GMG) together with the decision not to own Woodside Energy (WDS). SEK delivered an above guidance result with an outlook that was better than market expectations at the revenue and operational profit lines. The stock declined, however, given the market’s focus on some mixed messages during the results briefing from the company CEO Ian Narev. We feel this is largely misplaced, but acknowledge we need to see the company deliver a more upbeat tone on its operations to reassure investors. Despite reporting buoyant development work in progress and earnings and a strong performance fees outlook, GMG shares were weaker in August. This follows a stellar performance in July and coincides with general weakness across the AREITs given the increase in bond yields. WDS reported a record interim dividend partly due to surplus BHP cash following acquisition of the BHP petroleum business. The company is on track to reduce leverage as a beneficiary of higher commodity prices.

Australia’s economy appears resilient judging by solid results for business surveys, the labour market and retail spending. Australia’s unemployment rate in July fell to 3.4% which is the lowest since 1974 and retail spending surged. However, the dramatic inflation acceleration is concerning. The Reserve Bank updated their annual CPI inflation forecasts to 7.75% by the end of 2022. Given this inflation threat, the Reserve Bank raised the cash interest rate by 0.5% to 1.85% in August.

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July, 2022

Australian shares recorded strong gains in July with the S&P/ASX 200 delivering a 5.7% return. Leading the market was the robust surge in the Information Technology and Real Estate sectors given a recovery in risk appetite and fall in long term bond yields. Financial shares also benefitted from bond yields. Consumer discretionary posted a strong performance in July with signs of solid retail spending against the tide of higher interest rates and soft consumer confidence. By contrast, there was a weak performance from the Resource sector, weighed down by concerns over global growth prospects.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 5.1% (net of fees) for the month of July 2022.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Goodman Group (GMG) and Northern Star (NST) together with the decision not to own Rio Tinto (RIO). As a fund manager within the real estate sector, GMG performed very strongly Sector allocation responding positively to the lower bond yields. NST shares rebounded after the company released June quarter reports that met its FY22 production and cost guidance. The company reiterated it was in a strong financial position and outlined its five-year profitable growth pathway. Resource stocks were generally lower on the potential for a US recession and in response to concerns about the Chinese property market. RIO’s first half result also underwhelmed investors with the declared dividend below expectations.

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May, 2022

Australian shares underperformed other developed markets in May. However, this comes after a more resilient performance compared to global share markets this year. For May, there were notable sharp falls in the real estate and information technology sectors in response to higher bond yields. Consumer staples and consumer discretionary shares were also weak given concerns that rising inflation and interest rates are squeezing household budgets. The resources sector was more encouraging with a modest gain given the persistent strength in commodity prices. The election of the new Labor Government on May 21st seems to have had minimal immediate impact on Australian share markets.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -3.2% (net of fees) for the month of May 2022.

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April, 2022

Australian shares performed relatively better than their global market peers to record a mild fall in April. The resources sector slipped on lower iron ore and metal prices given concerns over China’s growth prospects. The information technology sector slumped following the weakness on Wall Street. The bright spots were utilities where revenue is typically tied to inflation and also the industrial sector. The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -1.0% (net of fees) for the month of April 2022.

Contributing to the Fund’s performance were overweight positions in Orora (ORA), QBE Insurance (QBE) and Lend Lease (LLC). Defensive stocks such as packaging companies like ORA were sought after in April. In addition, ORA hosted an investor day late in the month that was well received. QBE is a beneficiary of rising bond yields and has enjoyed a turnaround in investor sentiment, with some brokers focusing on the underlying strength of its most recent result. At the end of March, Aware Super announced it had purchased a further 24.9% stake in LLC’s Retirement Living Trust for $490m. The funds will be used to grow the company’s investment platform as well as its development pipeline.

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March, 2022

Australian shares made strong gains in March. The resources sector surged 9.9% with the benefit of the sharp gains in iron ore and base metal prices. The energy sector made similar gains as oil prices climbed above US$100 per barrel given the Russia – Ukraine conflict. Financial shares also delivered a strong return with continued reassurances from the Reserve Bank that interest rates are likely to remain stable this year.

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 6.6% (net of fees) for the month of March 2022.

Contributing to the Fund’s performance were overweight positions in IGO, Sims (SGM) and Incitec Pivot (IPL). IGO is a WA based nickel and lithium producer. With sanctions applied to many of Russia’s industries, certain important metals are now in very scarce supply. Foremost amongst these is nickel, which saw hugely volatile price movements on the London Metals Exchange. Russia supplies Sector allocation around 20% of the world’s premium grade nickel, critical in the use of rechargeable batteries. Hence IGO rallied with the nickel price. SGM also enjoyed a strong month on the back of its better than expected February results. The market is becoming increasingly comfortable with the notion that scrap steel prices will remain elevated for longer as sanctions on Russia impact supplies of iron ore and coking coal. IPL shares reflected the surging global fertiliser prices, some of which reached record highs. These prices were already elevated due to supply constraints and high gas prices but were driven even higher by the Russia -Ukraine conflict (Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global fertiliser markets, and Russia a major supplier of gas)

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February, 2022

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 3.4% (net of fees) for the month of February 2022.

Australian shares proved more resilient to the global share correction with a 2.1% return for the ASX 200 largely as a result of a generally positive reporting season where more companies beat earnings estimates then missed. The energy sector surged as oil prices spiked to over US$100 per barrel with concerns over the Russia – Ukraine conflict. Grain prices also rocketed given both Russia and Ukraine are major producers. The resource sector also benefitted from the sharp gains in most prices in February. Consumer staples rebounded after a disappointing January given reassurances from the Reserve Bank that interest rates are likely to remain stable this year. However, there were some disappointments with the Information Technology sector continuing to weaken on concerns about rate rises in the US. Contributing to the Fund’s outperformance were overweight positions in South 32 (S32), Northern Star (NST) and Sims (SGM). A well-received interim profit result coupled with its share buy-back program and buoyant prices for its key commodities saw continued strength in S32’s share price. The Russia. - Ukraine hostilities saw investors reposition into “safe-haven” assets such as gold which resulted in a spike in the price of gold and gold producers including Northern Star. The focus on decarbonisation has seen growing demand for recycled steel. As a global recycler of scrap metal SGM is well placed. The company’s interim results and increased dividend also pleased investors.

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January, 2022

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of -4.7% (net of fees) for the month of January 2022.1

Australian shares had a disappointing start to 2022 with sharp falls in January. Leading the decline was the Information Technology sector which struggled in the wake of Wall Street reassessing growth prospects. Healthcare and consumer staples were also under selling pressure given that future higher interest rates would reduce their appeal to investors. The few rays of sunshine came from the Resources sector. The energy sector surged given the rapid rise in the oil price towards US$90 per barrel fueled by concerns over Russia – Ukraine political tensions. The big miners were also strongly supported as iron ore prices surged from US$107 to US$137 per tonne with reported shortages of Brazilian supply. Contributing to Fund performance were overweight positions in BHP, Santos (STO) and IGO. BHP and other iron ore producers including RIO performed well as the iron ore price rose on the reported supply shortages. Also significant was BHP’s reunification and end of its London listing on the morning of 31 January which saw very high turnover as its weighting in various indices increased eg from a weighting of around 6% of the ASX 200 to approximately 10%. This means many index and benchmark-aware funds have been and will be buying more of the stock (and consequently have reduced or are reducing their exposure to others). The oil price rose by more than 17% during January. This was reflected in the price of oil stocks including STO and Woodside. The demand for and price of lithium continues to rise as has the IGO share price.

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August, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 3.4% (net of fees) for the month of August 2021.1

Australian shares delivered a strong return in August. Reporting season was generally positive. The Information Technology sector surged as Square launched a $39b takeover bid for Afterpay. There were also strong gains for the healthcare and financial sectors given the Reserve Bank’s guidance that low interest rates would be maintained. However, resource sector shares were down as iron ore prices slumped by 25% as the Chinese steel industry signaled lower demand.

Performance was boosted by overweight holding Afterpay (APT) and the decisions not to own Fortescue Metals (FMG) and Rio Tinto (RIO). US tech giant Square’s $39b bid for Afterpay valued APT at $126.21 per share - a premium of 25% to APT’s previous undisturbed market valuation. Shares in iron ore producer FMG were impacted by the drop in the iron ore price despite a record profit and dividend announcement. Similarly shares in RIO were weaker

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July, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 0.5% (net of fees) for the month of July 2021.1 Australian shares made slight gains in July. The resources sector performed well given higher metal prices and a weaker Australian Dollar. The industrial sector, utilities and consumer staples also performed solidly given RBA’s guidance of low interest rates. However, the information technology sector lost ground after a strong June.

Performance was boosted by overweight holdings in IGO Limited (IGO), BHP and Orora (ORA). A strong rally in lithium prices was reflected in IGO’s share price. The market has increased confidence that IGO will be a beneficiary of the drive to electric vehicles following its successful acquisition of a share of the Greenbushes lithium mine and associated downstream processing assets. Materials was the best performing sector during June as base metals prices increased and investors considered the prospects of higher dividend announcements. BHP shares performed well. Solid macro-economic data from the US as its economy continues to re-open as well as strong increases in cardboard box pricing (a key product for ORA’s North America division) are seen as beneficial to ORA.

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May, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 3.3% (net of fees) for the month of May 2021.1

Australian shares made healthy gains in May. Bank shares delivered strong returns given solid profit results for the half year on low funding costs and declining debt impairment costs. Consumer discretionary and healthcare also made solid gains with consumer optimism on the Australian economic recovery. Sectors that disappointed included information technology which essentially reversed all of the previous month’s gains. Utilities also fell sharply.

Performance was boosted by overweight positions in Westpac (WBC), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) and Northern Star (NST). All the major banks provided trading updates in May, with lower impairments driving earnings upgrades across the sector. ALL pre-announced a 12% increase in its 1H21 profit after tax. This was driven by very good gaming product performance and buoyed by stronger than expected consumer sentiment and economic conditions in the US and Australasia. The upbeat announcement was viewed very positively by the market. The gold price rose by more than 8% in May, possibly as a reaction to rising inflation. NST also announced increased gold reserves and resources and an increased share in the central Tanami project

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April, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 3.7% (net of fees) for the month of April 2021.1

Australian shares made strong gains in April. The resource sector returned 5.4% boosted by the surge in commodity prices including iron ore (20%) and copper (13%). The information technology sector also performed well partly buoyed by strong results from the major global technology companies. Sectors posting declines included energy, on the back of the fall in the oil price, consumer staples and utilities.

Performance was boosted by overweight positions in IGO Limited (IGO), Boral (BLD) and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL). IGO’s March quarter report was well received by the market with confirmation that its lithium acquisition was on-track for completion in the June 21 quarter. The company also announced it had agreed to sell its 30% stake in the Tropicana Gold Mine asset to Regis Resources for approximately $900m – regarded by some analysts as a premium price. BLD announced the sale of its 50% share in USG Boral for US$1bn with proceeds to be used to fund a share buyback program. There was no particular news from ALL but the rapid opening up of the economy in North America and Australia and with it casinos and gaming has helped ALL. There also has been increased attention on the sector as a result of M&A activity

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March, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 2.9% (net of fees) for the month of March 2021.1 Australian shares made mild gains in March, as increases from the industrials were tempered by declines in resources. The consumer discretionary and communication sectors performed strongly with the view that consumer spending prospects were rapidly improving. However, the 7.3% decline in the iron ore price and small declines in the oil and gold prices resulted in a weaker performance from the resources sector which finished March down by 4.1%.

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February, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 4.0% (net of fees) for the month of February 2021.1 Australian shares made modest gains in February. Reporting season was generally positive, with most companies either beating or meeting market expectations. Rising iron ore, metal and energy prices boosted returns for the resources sector, with gold a notable exception. Financial sector shares also made strong gains with the view that Australian businesses and consumers are in a much better position to meet debt commitments. In contrast the information technology and utilities sectors proved sensitive to global shifts in risk appetites and rising bond yields, recording declines for the month. Performance was boosted by overweight holdings in Westpac (WBC), Virgin Money UK (VUK) and Vocus (VOC). The spike in bond yields has continued to support bank stocks. WBC also provided an upbeat trading update citing improved optimism given the improving economy and vaccine rollout. VUK also made an upbeat 1Q21 earnings announcement including a return to statutory profit and the maintenance of guidance with upside potential. VOC shares rose after the company confirmed that it had received a non-binding, indicative proposal from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets Holdings (MIRA) to acquire 100% of its shares for a price of $5.50 per share through a scheme of arrangement. Detracting from performance were overweight holdings in Northern Star (NST) and Atlas Arteria (ALX) and the decision not to own Rio Tinto (RIO). Continued weakness in the gold price overshadowed NST’s record interim profit and dividend announcement in February. Traffic numbers and revenue for European toll road operator ALX, have been impacted by the movement restrictions imposed due to the prolonged and severe second wave of the coronavirus. Very late in January the company reported that 4Q20 traffic was down by over 25% and toll revenue by nearly 20% on 4Q19. The strength in Chinese demand and rising prices for iron ore, good FY20 results and an unequivocal apology from its CEO in regard to Juukan Gorge together with the declaration of a greater commitment to ESG were all positives for RIO during February. Australia’s economic data continues to strengthen. Strong January results for car sales, employment and retail spending as well as positive business and consumer surveys suggest that Australia’s economic recovery is gathering pace. When this positive momentum is combined with the commencement of Australia’s coronavirus vaccine rollout, 2021 appears to be off to an encouraging start.

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January, 2021

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 0.8% (net of fees) for the month of January 2021.1 Australian shares made modest gains in January. There were solid gains for consumer discretionary, communication and financial sector shares with the view that the Australian consumer is now experiencing improving prospects. However, these gains were countered by weakness in real estate investment trusts and industrials. Performance was boosted by overweight holdings in Westpac (WBC) and Telstra (TLS) and the decision not to own Fortescue Metals (FMG). The banking sector was buoyed by the spike in bond yields following the democrat wins in the US Senate election in Georgia. Also supportive have been recent earnings upgrades that have been mostly due to lower bad debts. WBC was the strongest performer. During January TLS provided prior performance figures based on its new product reporting framework. The new framework was flagged in November 20 and will provide greater transparency, especially as TLS moves to restructure into three legal entities – InfraCo Fixed, InfraCo Towers and ServeCo.

After a strong run, the iron ore price finally pulled back and with it the share price of FMG which is a pure iron ore producer. Detracting from performance were decisions not to own Wesfarmers (WES), Afterpay (APT) and NAB. The release of buoyant November 20 Australian retail sales (+13.3% on Nov 19) and signs of increasing consumer confidence saw WES shares perform strongly in January. Similarly, buoyant retail sales and increasing consumer confidence, combined with APT’s entry into the S&P/ASX 20 in December, were positive for APT’s share price. Australia’s economic data continues to strengthen, suggesting encouraging prospects for the new year. Strong job gains as well as optimistic business and consumer surveys suggest that the Australian economic recovery is gathering pace. Signs that Sydney’s virus outbreak is contained also provided a positive impulse. However new variants of the coronavirus and slow rollouts of vaccines globally have tempered this optimism.

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December, 2020

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 0.9% (net of fees) for the month of December 2020. Australian shares recorded more modest gains than most global equities markets. While news of a virus outbreak in Sydney in late December served as a dampener, some sectors ended December on a very positive note including Information Technology which reflected the robust gains on Wall Street. The Resources sector also performed strongly as the iron ore price surged by more than 20% on news of lower Brazilian production. Oil and gold prices also rallied. Utilities and health care sectors declined during the month. Performance was boosted by overweight holdings in Iluka Resources (ILU), Metcash (MTS) and BHP.

As investors increasingly focus on alternative energy, ILU presented at a global rare earths conference in early December. Metcash posted solid gains after delivering a robust set of results with strong sales and operating leverage coming through the business. BHP shares were beneficiaries of the near 25% increase in the iron ore price during December.

Detracting from performance were decisions not to own Fortescue Metals (FMG) or Afterpay (APT) and an overweight position in A2 Milk (A2M). As a pure iron ore producer FMG’s share price rose strongly. The change in market direction helped some of the “COVID-winners” including APT recover their momentum. An upbeat trading update in November by APT and the company’s entry into the S&P/ASX 20 in December also aided positive sentiment. Shares in A2M fell during December after the company provided downbeat earnings guidance. While the market had been expecting some weakness in A2M’s sales in 2021 as it struggled to replace the lucrative Daigou channel into China, the update revealed that the Daigou channel weakness has also found its way into the e-commerce channel in China, a bigger hit than had been previously anticipated.

Australia’s economic data continues to strengthen, suggesting a sustainable recovery provided the Sydney virus outbreak is contained. Strong job gains and retail spending were recorded in November with the ending of Melbourne’s virus lockdown. Business and consumer surveys show very positive responses given the Federal Budget’s investment allowance initiatives as well as income tax cuts. With coronavirus vaccines being rolled out across the northern hemisphere, the imminent inauguration of Presidentelect Biden in the US and completion of Brexit, the global outlook is positive, although a shadow remains over Australia’s relationship with China.

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November, 2020

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 11.8% (net of fees) for the month of November 2020.

Australian shares recorded their strongest monthly gain in three decades. Apart from the positive vaccine news and Melbourne ending its lockdown, further monetary support from the Reserve Bank (RBA) is a tailwind to Australian shares. The RBA cut the cash interest rate target to a historic 60 year low of 0.1% in November and provided forward guidance that this cash interest rate is expected to remain steady for the next three years, signalling a ‘lower for longer’ stance. The energy sector led the charge higher as global oil prices rebounded on expectations of greater travel and economic activity. Financial sector shares were also buoyant on hopes that an economic recovery would reduce loan payment deferrals and potential losses. Real estate investment trusts also recovered on expectations that consumers and employees will soon return to shopping centres and their business offices.

Performance was boosted by overweight holdings in Scentre Group (SCG), Santos (STO) and ANZ. SCG enjoyed support as the end of Melbourne’s lockdown and positive vaccine news raised the prospect of greater visitation to shopping centres. STO benefitted as global oil prices rebounded by more than 27% during the month on expectations of greater travel and economic activity. ANZ shares, together with the rest of the banking sector, rose on the prospect of an economic recovery and continued fiscal support from federal and state governments which would reduce loan payment deferrals and potential losses.

Detracting from performance were overweight holdings in gold producer Northern Star (NST) and Metcash (MTS) as well as the decision not to own NAB. The gold price fell by over 5% during November reflecting the optimism associated with two Covid vaccines with over 90% efficacy and subsequent end to the pandemic in sight. Defensive sectors including consumer staples stocks (MTS) fared relatively poorly as investors looked to sectors that would benefit from a vaccine-led normalisation of economies. Australia’s economic data show promising recovery signs.

Employment has sharply rebounded with the ending of Melbourne’s virus lockdown. The AIG and NAB business surveys show encouraging activity revivals given the Federal Budget’s investment allowance initiatives. Consumer confidence measures have also made healthy gains on the back of the Federal Budget’s income tax cuts. With the US Presidential election result indicating a clear victory to Joe Biden and the Senate likely to remain Republican and thus deliver a favorable outcome for markets, the outlook is positive, barring Australia’s souring relationship with China.

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October, 2020

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund delivered a return of 1.6% (net of fees) for the month of October 2020.

Australian shares provided a positive surprise with a modest gain in October. The Federal Budget’s announcement of income tax cuts and investment allowances was positively received by investors. News that Melbourne’s virus outbreak appeared to be contained with lockdown restrictions being gradually eased also assisted Australian share prices. Information Technology shares led the market buoyed by a takeover bid for Link Administration and another strong performance from Afterpay. Financial sector shares also surged with optimism that a supportive Federal Budget and Melbourne’s revival would mitigate potential loan losses with business and housing loans deferrals. However the industrials and energy sectors disappointed.

Performance was boosted by overweight holdings in Nine Entertainment (NEC), Westpac (WBC) and BlueScope (BSL). NEC’s share price has continued to rise post delivering its results in August. The market is recognising NECs success in transforming a large proportion of its business to a digital subscription model. The banking sector rose strongly in October with the prospect of a loosening in the responsible lending laws and some hope that bad debts could be not as bad as feared. BSL provided a trading update in late October that indicated 1HFY21 earnings before interest and tax would be 30% ahead of the previous half (2HFY20). The company was enjoying strong demand for its products in Australia and the US.

Detracting from performance was an underweight position in CBA, an overweight holding in Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) and the decision not to own Afterpay (APT). CBA shares rallied with the other banks. While there was no new news from ALL, the stock has been very strong in recent months as the US Casino market opened from COVID ahead of people’s expectations. With COVID cases re-accelerating in the US the market may have looked to lock in some of those recent gains. APT made a series of positive announcements during October including a tie-up with Westpac as the first partner on its new digital banking platform, a strong 1Q21 business update that revealed a 115% increase in underlying sales on the pcp and confirmation that AUSTRAC would not be taking any further regulatory action in relation to the AML/CTF Act.

Australia’s economic data and survey measures continue to deliver mixed signals, with some bright spots. Employment and retail spending softened in September as Melbourne’s virus lockdown weighed on activity. However there were some encouraging signs. Business surveys shows signs of stabilising while consumer sentiment rebounded in October with optimism that the virus was being contained. Late in the month there were signs that Victoria would significantly ease coronavirus restrictions as the number of new cases hit zero. More announcements were made about state borders opening and (one way) flights resumed with New Zealand. The mood was tempered by continuing trade issues with China and uncertainty about how the US election will play out

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ticker: PPL0115AU
commentary_block: Array
factsheet_url:

https://www.antarescapital.com.au/content/dam/antares/documents/resource-library/pdf/fund-profiles-antares-elite-opportunities-fund.pdf


release_schedule: Monthly
fund_features:

The Antares Elite Opportunities Fund is an actively managed concentrated portfolio of equities listed (or expected to be listed) on the Australian share market. The Fund’s objective is to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index (after fees) over rolling five-year periods.

  • Invest in a concentrated portfolio of Australian listed equities managed by a specialist manager.
  • Seeking long-term capital growth; and can tolerate fluctuations of income and the risk of capital loss.
  • Invests in up to 30 listed Australian equities.
  • Relatively unconstrained investment guidelines within a strong risk management framework allows for significant potential outperformance.

manager_contact_details: Array
asset_class:
asset_category:
peer_benchmark:
broad_market_index:
structure: Managed Fund