MON0001AU Monash Absolute Investment Fund


May, 2023

In May, the Fund fell -6.3% (after fees) giving back its positive return of April. This compares to a decrease of -3.3% for the Small Ords. However, we remain ahead of the Small Ords over the last two months and very significantly ahead of it over medium to long term time periods. For the 12 months the Fund is up 2.0% compared to the Small Ords which is down -5.8%.

As a high conviction manager we do get impacted from short term swings in share prices. We have shown over the medium to long term that our investment approach rewards investors.

Monash Investors was established in 2012, and since that time on average 91% of the stocks in our portfolio have been outside the S&P/ASX 100. The Small Ords comprises the 200 stocks in the S&P/ASX 300 that excludes the largest 100.

Despite being stock size agnostic in our approach, the overwhelming number of stocks that have met our investment criteria have been small cap, and this is where we have had our best payoffs as investors. To put the size of these companies in perspective, the largest Small Ords stocks have market capitalisations of about $4 billion and the smallest ones about $100m.

Given our overwhelming exposure to small cap stocks, going forward we will be re-naming the portfolio to reflect this. This will help us position the fund as a product that is relevant to a larger number of investors.

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March, 2023

In March, the Fund fell 0.9% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of 0.2% for the S&P/ASX200 and a fall of 0.7% for the Small Ords.

Following on from the reporting season month of February, March was a relatively quiet month with little news from our companies.

Our best contributor for the month was REA Group (realestate.com.au ASX: REA) which rose by 12%. REA made no stock exchange announcement this month, but an improvement in property prices was widely reported in the media.

Australian house prices recorded their first rise in 11 months, with capital city values appreciating by 0.6% in March. The falls had bottomed out in February with a modest decline of only 0.1%. Sydney led the gains in March at 1.4%, followed by Melbourne at .6%.

Speculation by commentators of a pause in RBA interest rate rises towards the end of the month perhaps also helped. The RBA had increased interest rates 10 times in a row for a total rise of 3.5%, so a pause to give some time for previous increases to work their way through the economy, and to assess their full impact before adding further rises, was already overdue.

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February, 2023

In February, the Fund fell 4.5% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of 2.5% for the S&P/ASX200 and a fall of 3.7% for the Small Ords.

Lower overseas markets provided a soft lead for the ASX, with the S&P500 falling 2.4% for the month. Concerns about the extent of further RBA rate rises in response to the latest inflation figures also contributed to the ASX weakness. While inflation has fallen from its peak of 8.4% for calendar year 2022, the 12 months to 31 January was still very high at 7.4%.

February was a company results reporting month. A common theme during this reporting season was weak like-for-like growth, and the impact of inflation on margins.

Over the course of last year we had tilted our portfolio towards stocks that are less exposed to the economic cycle, but rather have strong structural growth and pricing power. As a result our stocks have been doing relatively well as businesses. 9 out of our top 10 holdings reported first half results in February. Following these results, analyst consensus changes to their FY24 earnings forecasts resulted 6 upgrades, 1 downgrade and 2 had no meaningful change.

Unfortunately the positive achievements of the companies were not reflected in the overall return of the portfolio, and we somewhat underperformed the market. The portfolio consists of high-quality companies with long-standing pricing power and reputable management teams. We remain positive on their outlook and future valuations. We will provide greater details on this during our postreporting season webinar on Tuesday the 14th of March. We continue to identify compelling investment opportunities.

We have seen in the past that as our companies execute on their business opportunities, the market will eventually recognise this in their share prices. This is what has driven our longer term investment returns namely our ability to continue to identify compelling opportunities.

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December, 2022

In December, the Fund fell 4.26% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of 3.21% for the S&P/ASX200 and a fall of 3.73% for the Small Ords. The relative performance of the portfolio this month was hampered by a lack of exposure to the gold and REIT sectors, which rose strongly.

There was no bad news announced by any of our larger holdings, but a few of them fell by double digit amounts regardless, in the weak market. On the other hand we did benefit from our shorts in Lithium producers.

2022 was a very tough year for investors, with central banks rapidly increasing interest rates in response to their concerns over inflation. Near the start of the year we wrote that higher growth stocks, small caps and low liquidity stocks tend to underperform with such conditions. This proved to be truer than we hoped, as reflected in the one year total return of the Small Ordinaries being negative 18.4%.

We continued to see bad news regarding the consumer in December, which has led us to pre-emptively trim by a further third our holdings in retailers. It’s not that we think our companies are doing poorly, they are outstanding businesses, but the combination of reasonably high valuations and emergent earnings headwinds indicate attractive entry points remain further on the horizon.

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November, 2022

In November, the Fund rose 0.95% (after fees). This compares to an increase of 6.58% for the S&P/ASX200 and a rise of 4.92% for the Small Ords.

After a strong run of months beating the market, we finally had one where we underperformed it. We are still well ahead of the market for the rolling six months where the Fund is up 7.47% (after fees) compared to the ASX200 up 3.51% and the Small Ords down -3.37%.

The difference this month was resources, which has been on a two month tear. Of the best performing ASX200 stocks this month 17 were resources, and their average rise was 29% over November. But picking swings in commodity prices, such as gold or iron ore, is not the sort of reliable recurring business situation that we look for in selecting investments. Consequently our portfolio is typically well underweight resources compared to the market, and this has served us well over time.

Most companies have their AGM in November, and this was the primary source of news that drove stock price movements within our portfolio.

Our best contributor was Johns Lyng Group (ASX: JLG), which the market feared would take the opportunity to downgrade, but rather reconfirmed its guidance. To quote the CEO “our business is flying”. We also had a major contribution from a company we were short. It continues to have inventory problems and conceded for the first time that it will need to cut prices to clear stock, which will have a significant effect on its margins.

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October, 2022

In October, the Fund rose 7.17% (after fees).This compares to an increase of 6.04% for the S&P/ASX200 and a rise of 6.46% for the Small Ords.

There have been large swings, up and down, in the market over the last 6 months, but it has generally trended down. Smaller stocks have been particularly disappointing. During this volatile period, the Fund’s flexible mandate showed its strength. It allowed us to establish a significant cash weight and proactively adjust our long and short positions when markets reached extremely overbought and oversold levels. Over this time the Fund rose 0.94% (after fees) compared to a fall of -5.41% for the S&P/ASX200 and a drop of -14.36% for the Small Ords.

In last month’s update we reported that our biggest detractor was Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (Telix, ASX: TLX) which fell 23% on its decision to withdraw its marketing authorisation application for investigational product Illuccix in Europe. The price drop was an exaggerated response during a time of market weakness.

This month TLX rose 47%, more than making back last month’s fall, with the release of its September quarter business update. Total revenues for the period were $55.3m, up 168% on the previous quarter. The next catalyst is likely to be the headline data from the pivotal trial of TLX-250-CDx for the imaging of renal cancer, due early November. Telix has always been a stock with lots of news flow. This is not surprising as its products are currently involved in about 20 clinical trials covering both company sponsored and investigator led programs.

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September, 2022

Despite being stock size agnostic, we tend to find the most opportunities in smaller companies. In an environment where smaller companies have performed so poorly we have not suffered to the same degree. Over the last six months the total return of Small Ords is down 20.76%, the ASX200 is down 11.56% and the portfolio is “only” down 6.55% (after fees).

In the September quarter the Fund rose 0.34% (after fees). This compares to a rise of 0.39% for the S&P/ASX200 and a fall of 0.47% for the Small Ords.

In the month of September, the Fund fell 7.02% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of 6.17% for the S&P/ ASX200 and a fall of 11.20% for the Small Ords.

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August, 2022

In August, the Fund rose 1.84% (after fees). This compares to an increase of 1.18% for the S&P/ASX200 and a rise of 0.58% for the Small Ords

August was a reporting season month during which companies disclose their full year results. On balance there were less large surprises or extreme movements than usual, though some stood out.

Our best result was Lovisa (ASX: LOV) which rose 30% for the month due to stronger sales and earnings than expected, and guidance that its store roll out program was accelerating. Our largest detractor was City Chic (ASX: CCX) which fell -29% for the month on the back of a result that saw an unexpectedly large increase in its inventory levels, but was otherwise in line with expectations.

The portfolio benefitted from two of our smaller holdings receiving take-over approaches. In both cases the targets seem of a mind to accept the bids and the stocks rose strongly. Nearmap (ASX: NEA) rose 49% and PTB Group (ASX: PTB) rose 35%.

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July, 2022

In July, the Fund rose 5.98% (after fees). This compares to an increase of 5.75% for the S&P/ASX200 and a rise of 11.43% for the Small Ords.

July is usually a very quiet month, being the “black out” period between the 30 June end of the financial year, and the reporting of annual results in August. It also coincides with school holidays, so fewer people are around and trading volumes slow down.

While there wasn’t a lot of stock specific news this July, macroeconomic and geo-political news made it pretty interesting with a decent rise in shares prices, which was surprising.

When prices are in free fall, it’s usually foolish to call the bottom. As the saying goes, don’t try to catch a falling knife. In June the ASX200 was down -8.8% and the Small Ords -13.1%. We finished June down only -1.0%, outperforming the ASX200 by 7.8% and Small Ords by 12.1%. The portfolio finished June with a net exposure to the market of only 46%, which aided by our stock picking helped us avoid most of the sell-off.

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June, 2022

During the June quarter, the Fund fell -6.87% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of -11.90% for the S&P/ ASX200 and a fall of -20.39% for the Small Ords. As we previously stated the conditions that gave rise to the high growth, low interest rate, low inflation economy that we have enjoyed for the most part of the last 30 years are turning. The portfolio continues to be positioned in anticipation of these conditions playing out further. This protected it from the significant equity market sell down in June. Energy is no longer cheap and international supply chains are less reliable, the non-discretionary costs of electricity, petrol, food and rents/mortgages are all rising. Falling house prices will reverse the “wealth effect.” Put this all together and discretionary spending by households will contract substantially from their COVID induced high. Another related theme in the portfolio is the effect of underinvestment in the resources (particularly energy) industry due to discouragement by governments, activists and institutional investors. We see little change to this dynamic despite the rise in commodity prices that would otherwise induce significant capacity expansion, albeit with a lag of several years

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April, 2022

During April, the Fund fell -0.79% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of -0.85% for the S&P/ASX200 and a fall of -1.50% for the Small Ords. During April, the Fund was on the right side of a few stock specific announcements. This explains its relative outperformance this month, despite its bias to smaller cap companies which have generally been underperforming large cap. This is explained in more detail later in this commentary. Inflation has been building and central banks have failed to raise interest rates early enough or high enough. They are now playing catch up, and it has all the makings of a classic economic cycle, the like of which we have not seen for decades. It is fair to say that interest rates have never been this low while inflation has been this high. At the same time unemployment is at record lows, supported by generous government spending and perhaps helped by a net loss in migration last year.

Now that the economy is opening up, Australians are unleashing pent up spending outside Australia on overseas travel. There will also be less discretionary spending, particularly on goods, by consumers in Australia, with inflation driving higher spending on petrol, food and mortgage payments. This in turn will dampen domestic business profits and employment. Eventually (typically) the RBA will still be trying to dampen inflation even as the economy is stalling.

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February, 2022

During February the Fund fell -by 3.93% (after fees). This compares to a return of 2.14% for the S&P/ASX200 and -0.01% for the Small Ords. February 2022 will be remembered for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the global condemnation and sanction response to it. Our experience as fund managers has been that periods of negative returns or underperformance by our portfolio represent buying opportunities to our investors, given the solid anchoring of our holdings in large pay-offs to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuations.

We discuss the portfolio in detail in our March post-reporting season webinar. In times of uncertainty, the equity market shortens its earnings focus and also values safety more highly. This causes higher growth and small-cap businesses to be derated relative to slower growth and defensive larger-cap companies. For example, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index fell -by 7.84%.

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January, 2022

During January the Fund fell -8.65% (after fees). This compares to a total return of -6.35% for the S&P/ASX200 and -9.00% for the Small Ords.

Over the month interest rate expectations rose in the US, as members of the Fed made increasingly hawkish statements in response to inflation concerns. For example, the US 3 year rate rose from 0.95%pa to 1.37%pa. The move in longer US rates was similar, with the 10 year bond yield rising from 1.09%pa to 1.51%pa. It was this increase in the longer rates which really effected the long duration growth stocks that trade on high near term valuation multiples, particularly technology stocks. The S&P/ASX All Technology Index fell an impressive -15.33% for the month.

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December, 2021

During the December quarter, the Fund rose 6.62% (after fees). This compares to a total return of 2.09% for the S&P/ASX200 and 2.03% for the Small Ords.

Our strong portfolio performance this quarter was broadbased. It resulted from oversized contributions from a number of holdings and some well-timed investment decisions. While the top contributors have very different industry exposures, what they have in common is strong earnings outlooks driven by recurring business situations. The top contributor was Healthia (ASX: HLA) which rose 27%. It has a network of physiotherapists, podiatrists and optometrists. It is a great example of a business that is showing good like for like sales growth as well as growing through bolt on acquisitions. It still trades on a relatively modest near term multiple despite its history of high teen earnings per share growth.

OFX Group (ASX: OFX) rose 46%, and due to its lower weight was only the second best contributor. It provides foreign exchange money transfers across 55 different currencies. It is now focusing more on business clients than consumers. Its larger clients include Amazon, Wisetech and Link Market Services. This has led to a strong turnaround in its growth and margins. During the quarter, OFX also announced an accretive acquisition to materially expand its North American operations’ scale and profitability.

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November, 2021

During November, the Fund rose 1.26% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of -0.54% for the S&P/ASX200 and a fall of -0.31% for the Small Ords. Most AGMs are held in November, at which time companies take the opportunity to provide trading updates (and revise their guidance, if needed). Despite not being very long after the full year results disclosed in August, some companies will surprise one way or the other.

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October, 2021

During October, the Fund rose 2.61% (after fees). This compares to a decrease of -0.10% for the S&P/ASX200 and an increase of 0.92% for the Small Ords.October was a relatively flat month for the market and it was a quiet month for stock specific news flow.

Nonetheless the Fund’s stocks managed a few surprises which the portfolio tended to be on the right side of. The biggest news was the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in Sydney and on travel in Australia more generally. This meant at a sector level the Australian “reopening trade” drove investor appetite into some retail and travel stocks, but it was by no means uniform.

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September, 2021

During the September quarter, the Fund rose 2.97% (after fees). This compares to an increase of 1.71% for the S&P/ASX200 and 3.44% for the Small Ords.

It was quite a volatile quarter with the portfolio down in July and September, despite being up overall. The highlight of the quarter was the results season in August, where 5 of the top 10 positions earnings announcements were positive for the portfolio, and only one against. As is typical for the portfolio, there were some significant changes made over the quarter with three of the Outlook2 holdings exited, and seven new holdings established. Notably the portfolio no longer holds Uniti Group Ltd (ASX: UWL) which was exited for a 175% gain over a year and a half. Towards the end of the quarter the portfolio increased short positions having identified stocks expected to have earnings disappointments. The portfolio remains relatively concentrated and has little exposure to Resources or Financials.

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August, 2021

During the month of August, the Fund rose 8.07% (after fees) versus an increase of 2.50% for the S&P/ASX200 and 4.98% for the Small Ords.

The Fund’s return for the 1 year to 31 August now stands at 34.96% (after fees) compared to 28.15% for the S&P/ASX200 and 29.51% for the Small Ords.
This ratio of 5 beats and 1 miss out of the top 10 stocks is unusually a good result and goes a long way to explaining the high single digit return achieved for the portfolio this month.

Lovisa was a particular highlight. It rose 18% on the day of its result3 and 25% over the course of the month. Lovisa is a vertically integrated jewellery retailer that sells through stores in shopping centres, its online sales are currently small but grew at 178% last year. Although trading continues to be impacted by lockdowns in Australia & NZ, the northern hemisphere is emerging strongly as restrictions ease. It’s like for like sales growth was +38% on a total sales growth of +56% in the first 8 weeks since 30 June. Essentially, the recovery is playing out as hoped.

Store rollout momentum continued with 87 of the newly acquired European Beeline stores, and a further 22 new stores being opened (net of closures). Around the world they have 540 stores, 177 of which are in Australia & NZ. With only 158 stores in Europe and 63 in the USA they have a long growth pathway ahead of them. We expect them to continue to grow their network by at least 10% p.a. for some time.

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July, 2021

The month of July is usually pretty quiet for investors. Apart from those that are required to provide quarterly cash flow reports, most companies are in “blackout” after the close of their financial year on 30 June - so they won’t say much till they report their earnings in August.

The Fund is a concentrated portfolio and there happened to be little news from the stocks held in July, though a few had positive announcements and they went up modestly. While there was no negative announcements, on balance the portfolio drifted lower.

For the month, the Fund fell -1.72% (after fees) versus a rise of 1.10% for the S&P/ASX200 and 0.68% for the Small Ords.

Ironically, the major drag this month was Afterpay (ASX: APT) which fell -18% (on no significant news) and detracted about 0.5% from the portfolio. Immediately after month end Afterpay announced it was being acquired in an all scrip take-over by Square (NASDAQ: SQ) and rose by 32% over the next 2 days.

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June, 2021

Financial year 2021 was a year of recovery from the Covid19 crash and delivered big returns. The Fund was up 44.72% (after fees) despite holding an average cash level of 19% over the 12 months. By comparison, the S&P/ASX200 rose 27.80% and the Small Ords rose 33.23%.

For the quarter, the Fund rose 2.33% (after fees) versus 8.29% for the S&P/ASX200 and 8.50% for the Small Ords. The Fund’s performance had lagged the markets somewhat in April and May with a number of the stocks taking treading water after an exceptionally strong prior 9 months.

However, performance picked up again in June where the Fund delivered 4.71% after fees compared to 2.26% for the S&P/ASX200 and 3.08% for the Small Ords.

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March, 2021

In March, the portfolio rose 1.62% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 2.44%, and the Small Ords, which was up 0.79%. For the financial year to date, the portfolio is up 41.41% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 18.02%, and the Small Ords, which was up 22.79%. The market rotation continued with many high growth stocks and COVID “winners” falling double-digit percentages. Over the last few months the cash weight has been building as positions have been trimmed in the “winners” stocks and completely exiting stocks that have met target prices, such as Afterpay (ASX: APT) or have sold out following a change of view, such as Kogan (ASX: KGN). In general, this selling was well timed, and reduced the portfolio’s exposure to underperforming stocks.

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February, 2021

In February, the portfolio rose 2.34% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 1.45%, and the Small Ords, which was up 1.55%. For the financial year to date, the portfolio is up 39.16% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 15.20%, and the Small Ords, which was up 21.84%. February is when most stocks report their half-year financial result. The best stock performer in the portfolio for this reporting season was Lovisa (ASX: LOV) which jumped 19% on results day and ended up 36% for the month. Following closely behind was EML Payments Limited (ASX: EML) which climbed 16% on results day and 30% overall for the month. Both LOV and EML beat consensus analyst estimates having achieved better than expected recoveries from COVID-19 related disruptions. Positions in these stock positions have since been trimmed to take profits and maintain original portfolio weights in each stock.

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January, 2021

In January, the portfolio rose 0.26% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 0.31%, and the Small Ords which was down -0.25%. For the financial year to the end of January, the Fund is up 35.98% (after fees). This compares to the A&P/ASX200 that is up 13.55% and to the Small Ords, which is up 19.98%.

January is typically a quiet month before the storm of the February reporting season, excluding the few companies that need to fulfil their continuous disclosure obligations, by confessing early to a surprisingly good or bad result. This was no exception and the market in effect “marked time” despite its continuing volatility, with five out of January’s nineteen business days experiencing a market move of greater than +/- 1%.

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December, 2020

In December, the portfolio rose 2.51% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 1.21%, and the Small Ords up 2.76%. The portfolio did well to keep up with the market this month, given the cash weighting of over 20%. The portfolio returns were boosted by buying back some of the Afterpay (ASX: APT) and Kogan (ASX: KGN) sold at higher prices in October, both which rebounded sharply in December.

The 2021 financial year has so far been strong. Over six months the portfolio is up 35.63% (after fees). The S&P/ASX200 did 13.20% and the Small Ords 20.28%. While the COVID-19 pandemic has been a once in a century experience for the world, for the markets it has been far less dramatic – with the crash of calendar year 2020 being a once in a cycle experience, and a brief one at that. In 2020 the S&P/ASX200 was down by -32.0% at its worst for the year, but it recovered to be up 1.4% at 31 December.

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November, 2020

For the month of November, the portfolio increased 16.10% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 10.21%, and the Small Ords up 10.27%. This was a pleasing result as it was achieved in a month where a successful vaccine trial was announced, leading to a pronounced rotation to value stocks and COVID-19 losers such as travel businesses.

This strong return was also achieved despite holding an average weight of 16% cash in the portfolio over the month. Financial year to date the portfolio is up 32.30% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that is up 11.85%, and the Small Ords up 17.06%.

The largest contributor was Telix (ASX: TLX)i which rose after announcing sales contracts and regulatory progress. The next biggest contributor was Lovisa (ASX: LOV)ii which announced a large European expansion. Third was Webjet (ASX: WEB) part of our “travel group” trade, which rose on the re-opening of domestic Australian travel.

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October, 2020

For the month of October, the portfolio decreased by -0.04% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 1.93%, and the Small Ords up 0.46%.
Despite a flat month, the Fund’s financial year to date return has been good. Since 30 June 2020, the portfolio is up 11.91% (after fees). This compares to the S&P/ASX200 that was up 1.48%, and the Small Ords up 6.15%.

Some of the Fund’s stocks have done particularly well at times in this volatile market, which has led to a number recently having their weight trimmed or even exited. There were also a couple that were exited due to “Sign Post” misses.

While there have been opportunities to add to holdings, the net effect was an increase in the cash weight from 4% to 16%. As a result, the number of “Outlook Stocks” in the portfolio fell from 18 to 15.

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ticker: MON0001AU
commentary_block: Array
factsheet_url:

https://investmentcentre.moneymanagement.com.au/factsheets/mi/mr4x/monash-absolute-investment-fund-a


release_schedule: Monthly
fund_features:

Monash Absolute Investment Fund is a long/short Australian equity fund. It has a Long Bias and an Absolute Return Focus. It has a return target of 12-15% per annum after fees over a full Market Cycle, while seeking to preserve investor capital each financial year.

  • The Fund seeks to implement the investment strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of predominantly Australian equities (long and short), with overseas assets expected to average no more than 5% over time.
  • Suitable for investors with an investment horizon of five years or more.

manager_contact_details: Array
asset_class: Domestic Equity
asset_category: Australian Long Short
peer_benchmark: Domestic Equity - Long Short Index
broad_market_index: ASX Index 200 Index
structure: Managed Fund