July, 2023
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index increased 2.88% over the month.
This gain followed softer-than-expected inflation figures from the US and Australia and a reduced risk of further rate hikes with hopes growing that the economy would undergo a soft landing. A rally in energy stocks on the back of rising oil prices also helped. Major equity markets were generally strong during the month with S&P 500 returning 3.2% in local currency terms. In local currency terms the MSCI World Index was up 2.85%.
With regards to monetary policy the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its July meeting kept the cash rate unchanged 4.1 percent. In the RBA meeting minutes members noted that inflation was now declining, albeit from a high level, and that this would help mitigate the risk of a rise in medium-term inflation expectations. Members agreed that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe, but that this depended on how the economy and inflation evolve. It was also noted that mortgage interest payments would rise further as fixed-rate loans continued to mature.
Domestic data releases through July were mixed. The annual rate of inflation is 6% for the June quarter and is expected to fall further in August. While prices rose for most goods and services, there were some offsetting price falls from domestic holiday travel, accommodation, and fuel. Labour market conditions remained strong with the unemployment rate at 3.5%.
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 0.7% in July, marking the fifth month of housing value recovery.
M & A announcements during the month included Pacific Current Group (PAC) receiving a non-binding indicative bid from Regal Partners at an implied value of $10.77/share that was followed soon after by a competing bid from GQG Partners. Costa Group also received a non-binding indicative proposal from Pain Schwartz Partners while United Malt entered into a scheme implementation deed with Malteries Soufflet to acquire 100% of UMG shares. Key contributors to performance were overweight positions in Woodside Energy, ANZ and nil positions in Macquarie Group, Woolworths and Fortescue Metals while overweight holdings in Iluka, IGO, Teslstra and Coles and an underweight holding in CBA detracted from performance.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/fs_WST_MMF0700AU-5.pdfJune, 2023
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index increased 1.76% over the month. Major equity markets were generally strong during the month with S&P 500 returning 6.6% to investors over the month. In local currency terms the MSCI World Index was up 5.57%.
Monetary policy settings continued to tighten as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in a surprise move in its June meeting raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 percent. In the RBA meeting minutes members noted that inflation in many economies remained well above central banks’ targets. Members also noted that growth in economic activity in Australia had slowed since mid-2022, and that inflation had passed its peak but remained well above target and was forecast to return to the top of the target range only by mid-2025. Based on recent data suggesting that inflation risks had shifted to the upside a decision was made to raise the cash rate.
Domestic data releases through June were mixed. The annual rate of inflation at 5.6% in May was below market expectations of 6.1%. Household sector and housing activity are driving the slowdown, while population growth is acting as an offset. Labour market conditions remained strong with the unemployment rate falling to 3.6%. CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 1.1% in June, marking the fourth month of recovery since the January trough. A lack of supply was the main factor behind this growth although the pace of growth seems to be slowing as interest rates rise.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey results for May indicated that business conditions continued to ease with notable declines across trading, profitability and employment. Confidence fell to -4 index points in the month with most industries in negative territory. Most concerningly forward orders fell sharply indicating a potentially sharp fall in business conditions.
Estia Health received a revised proposal from Bain capital increasing the bid from $3/share to $3.20/share. There have been several smaller capital raisings including Tamboran Resources, EBR Systems, Macquarie Technology, Bowen Coking Coal and Noble Helium. Infratil was the largest capital raising, launching a NZ$850m capital raising during the month. Key contributors to performance were overweight positions in QBE Insurance, Downer EDI, Rio Tinto and underweight positions in CSL and BHP while a nil holding in Fortescue Metals and Woolworths, overweight holdings in Telstra and Iluka and an underweight holding in CBA detracted from performance.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/fs_WST_MMF0700AU-4.pdfApril, 2023
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index was up 1.85% over the month.
Major equity markets were strong in April. In local currency terms the MSCI World Index advanced 1.60%. The US S&P 500 gained 1.46%, while the MSCI Europe Index was up 2.40%. The UK recovered well from a poor performance in the prior month, with the FTSE 100 up 3.10%.
Monetary policy settings remain restrictive, in its April meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60%. The decision follows a cumulative increase of 3.50% since May last year. The board restated that they are determined to return inflation to the 2-3% range, with inflation currently hovering around 7%, well beyond this target range, further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary.
Domestic data releases through April were mixed. The annual inflation rate in Australia dropped to 7.0% in Q1 of 2023 from an over-30-year high of 7.8% in the previous period, with food prices rising the least in 3 quarters. Australia's unemployment rate stood at 3.5% in March 2023, unchanged from February's near 50-year low. Retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month (preliminary) in March 2023, while food retailing remained robust, non-food retail sales were weaker. CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) increased by 0.5% in April, this follows a 0.6% lift in the prior month, housing values appear to be supported by an imbalance between supply and demand.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey results for March saw business conditions continue to show ongoing resilience, edging lower but remaining well above the long-run average. Trading conditions remain very elevated, indicating that businesses continue to experience strong demand. Business confidence appears to have stabilised but remains below long run averages, with retail and wholesale remaining weak. Encouragingly price and cost growth measures showed some easing in March.
Over the month of April M & A continued with Blackmores agreeing on an all-cash takeover from Kirin valuing the company at about $1.85b. Newmont bumped its non-binding indicative proposal for Newcrest resulting in the former gaining exclusive confirmatory due diligence. Key contributors to performance were a nil position in Fortescue and overweight positions in QBE Insurance, ANZ, Reliance and IGO, while overweight holdings in Rio Tinto, Ramsay, BHP and Skycity as well as a nil position in Transurban detracted from performance.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/fs_WST_MMF0700AU-3.pdfFebruary, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index was down 3.2% during the month. Australian equities were amongst the better performers in the month. All major developed markets declined as realisation that the Fed remains on a tightening path saw prior months gains unwind. In local currency terms the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 returned -4.3%, the US S&P 500 returned -5.6%, the UK’s FTSE 100 returned - 1.5% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 returned -6.6%.
Monetary policy settings continued to tighten as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the pace of increases in line with the prior two months, raising the cash rate target by another 25 bps, to 3.10% in December, matching market forecasts and taking borrowing costs to a level not seen since November 2012. The RBA expects that interest rates will need to increase further in the months ahead to return inflation to within the target range of 2-3%. Future increases, however, do remain subject to the RBA’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Domestic data releases through December continue to point to robust activity levels, albeit with softening in some sectors.
The ABS Business Turnover Data indicated 4 of 13 sectors saw a decline in turnover in October, including retail trade which saw its first drop in nine months, as cost pressures and rising interest rates started to weigh in on consumer spending. The unemployment rate in Australia stood at 3.4% in November 2022, unchanged from October's 3-month low, and matching market estimates. CoreLogic’s National Home Value Index was down 1.1% in December, taking values -5.3% lower over 2022, the largest calendar year decline since 2008, where values were down 6.4% amid the Global Financial Crisis.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey results for November saw business conditions remain strong, while business confidence has turned negative reflecting a more uncertain outlook. The report also highlighted that inflationary pressures remain, with labour costs rising at a quarterly rate of 3.0% and purchases costs up 3.9%. By comparison, final product prices increased by 2.0%, suggesting margin pressure for business. All sectors of the market finished down over the month.
The best performing sectors were materials (-0.9%), utilities (-1.2%) and consumer staples (-1.8%). The worst performing sectors were consumer discretionary (-7.0%), information technology (-5.4%) and industrials (-4.9). Key contributors to performance were overweight positions in QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto and G8 Education, while overweight positions in Downer EDI, 29Metals and SkyCity Entertainment detracted from performance.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/fs_WST_MMF0700AU-2.pdfOctober, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index was down 6.2% during the month. Australian equities outperformed global equities in September, with the size of our Materials sector a differentiating factor. Global developed markets continued to sell off through September as central banks continued to tighten rates. All major markets finished the month down. In local currency terms the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 returned -5.6%, the US S&P 500 returned -9.2%, the UK’s FTSE 100 returned - 5.2% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 returned -6.9%.
Monetary policy settings continued to tighten as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate target by another 50 bps, to 2.35% in September. The RBA also flagged further increases in the months ahead, as part of the process of normalising monetary conditions, albeit subject to future economic data. The board remains committed to ensuring inflation returns to the target range of 2- 3%. Domestic economic data releases were mostly positive through September. August employment remained robust, with total employment increasing by 33,500 positions, reversing the unexpected decline seen in July.
While the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1ppts to 3.5%, this was a function of an increase in the participation rate. Job vacancies remain extraordinarily elevated with 474k unfilled roles. Retail sales remained resilient, increasing by 0.6% in August. This is the eighth month of consecutive increases. Within the subcategories, household goods returned to growth while clothing, footwear & personal accessories and other retailing both reported declines.
The NAB Survey of Business Conditions increased further. Notably the survey suggested some slowing of growth in input costs. Capacity utilisation remains high across all sectors, supporting continued strength in employment. Negative data included the Q2 headline CPI, which increased by 1.8%. The yearon-year rate was 6.1%, the equal highest annual rate since 1990. Importantly, the feared wage-price spiral is nowhere to be seen, with growth in wage rates lagging inflation quite materially. The ABS Wage Price Index reported growth of only 2.6% over the year to June. Key contributors to performance were nil holdings in Macquarie Group and Godman Group and and overweight position in 29Metals, while overweight holdings in Ramsay Health Care, Iluka Resources and Orica detracted from performance.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/fs_WST_MMF0700AU-1.pdfSeptember, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index was down 6.2% during the month. Australian equities outperformed global equities in September, with the size of our Materials sector a differentiating factor. Global developed markets continued to sell off through September as central banks continued to tighten rates. All major markets finished the month down. In local currency terms the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 returned -5.6%, the US S&P 500 returned -9.2%, the UK’s FTSE 100 returned - 5.2% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 returned -6.9%. Monetary policy settings continued to tighten as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate target by another 50 bps, to 2.35% in September. The RBA also flagged further increases in the months ahead, as part of the process of normalising monetary conditions, albeit subject to future economic data. The board remains committed to ensuring inflation returns to the target range of 2- 3%. Domestic economic data releases were mostly positive through September. August employment remained robust, with total employment increasing by 33,500 positions, reversing the unexpected decline seen in July. While the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1ppts to 3.5%, this was a function of an increase in the participation rate. Job vacancies remain extraordinarily elevated with 474k unfilled roles. Retail sales remained resilient, increasing by 0.6% in August. This is the eighth month of consecutive increases. Within the subcategories, household goods returned to growth while clothing, footwear & personal accessories and other retailing both reported declines. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions increased further. Notably the survey suggested some slowing of growth in input costs. Capacity utilisation remains high across all sectors, supporting continued strength in employment. Negative data included the Q2 headline CPI, which increased by 1.8%. The yearon-year rate was 6.1%, the equal highest annual rate since 1990. Importantly, the feared wage-price spiral is nowhere to be seen, with growth in wage rates lagging inflation quite materially. The ABS Wage Price Index reported growth of only 2.6% over the year to June. Key contributors to performance were nil holdings in Macquarie Group and Godman Group and and overweight position in 29Metals, while overweight holdings in Ramsay Health Care, Iluka Resources and Orica detracted from performance.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/fs_WST_MMF0700AU.pdfAugust, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned 1.2% during the month. Australian equities outperformed global equities in August on the back of a resilient local reporting season. Global developed markets struggled in August as the rate tightening resolve from the US Federal Reserve dampened investor sentiment. In the major developed markets (in local currency terms), the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 returned -5.1%, the US S&P 500 returned -4.1% and the UK’s FTSE 100 returned -1.1%. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 returned 1.1%. Monetary policy settings continued to tighten as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate target by another 50 bps, to 1.85% in August. The RBA expects further tightening in the process of normalising monetary conditions as they are committed to ensuring that inflation returns to the target range of 2-3%. Domestic economic data releases in August were mixed. Employment unexpectedly fell by 40,900 positions in July, the first fall in nine months.
The unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 3.4%, which was also below market expectations. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions strengthened by 6 points to 20 index points in July. Business confidence rebounded 5 points in July, to 7 index points. Retail sales were up 0.2% in June. CoreLogic’s National Home Value Index recorded a fourth consecutive month of value declines, down 1.6% in August. Sector returns were mixed in August. The best performing sectors were energy (7.8%), materials (4.4%) and communication services (2.5%). Industrials (1.2%) also outperformed the broader index. Consumer discretionary (0.9%), health care (0.4%), information technology (-0.1%), financials (-0.6%), utilities (-1.6%) and consumer staples (-1.8%) all underperformed the broader index. Real estate (-3.5%) was the worst performing sector. Key contributors to performance included overweight positions in Santos, 29Metals and IGO Limited. Key detractors from performance included the overweight positions in Coles, Downer EDI and Orica.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/192180170.pdfJune, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned -8.8% during the month. Australian equities underperformed global equities which returned -4.9% as measured by the MSCI All Countries World Index (in AUD, unhedged). Global equities were weaker in June, as investors worry over rising inflation levels and the chance of an economic recession. In the major developed markets, the US S&P 500 returned -8.3%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 returned -3.1%, UK’s FTSE 100 returned -5.5% and the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 returned - 8.7% (in local currency terms). Monetary policy settings tightened during the month as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market in its June meeting raising the cash rate target by 50 bps, to 0.85%. Domestic economic data releases in June were mostly weaker, employment being the exception. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%, remaining at its lowest on record for the third straight month. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions fell 2 points to 16 index points in May, remaining well above average. Business confidence fell 4 points in May to 6 index points, remaining just above its long-term average. Retail sales were up 0.9% in May. Apart from consumer staples, all sectors were down in June. The best performing sectors were consumer staples (0.2%), energy (- 0.3%) and health care (-3.1%). Communication services (-3.6%), industrials (-4.3%), utilities (-6.8%) and consumer discretionary (-7.3%) also outperformed the broader index. Real estate (- 10.3%), information technology (-11.0%) and financials (-11.9%) all underperformed the broader index. Materials (-12.4%) was the worst performing sector. The Fund outperformed the benchmark during June (net). Key contributors to performance included overweight holdings in Woodside, Coles and SkyCity Entertainment. Key detractors from performance included the overweight position in 29Metals, underweight allocation to CSL and the nil holding in Woolworths Group.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/190343583.pdfMay, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned 6.9% during the month. Australian equities outperformed global equity markets again in March, having benefitted from rising commodity prices that have buoyed local energy and material stocks. Global developed equity markets fared better than emerging markets as ongoing geopolitical tensions made for an uncertain outlook. In the major developed markets, the US S&P 500 was up 3.7% and the UK’s FTSE 100 was up 1.4%. The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 lagged, returning -0.4% (in local currency terms). Monetary policy settings remained unchanged during the month as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate target at 0.10%. The RBA remains firm that it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. Domestic economic data releases in March were largely positive. Employment rose by 77,400 positions in February, which was well above market expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, the lowest jobless rate since August 2008. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions rose to 9 points in February, on the back of a strong rise in employment. Business confidence was also higher, rising to 13pts in February, the highest reading in four months. Retail sales were up 1.8% in January. National CoreLogic dwelling prices saw another consecutive monthly rise in March, ending the month up 0.7%, but there is mounting evidence that housing growth rates are losing momentum.
All sectors were positive March, however there was a wide dispersion of returns. The best performing sectors were information technology (13.2%), energy (9.8%) and materials (8.9%). Financials (8.5%) and utilities (7.6%) also outperformed the broader index. Communication services (5.1%), consumer staples (4.6%), industrials (4.5%), consumer discretionary (4.2%) and health care (2.5%) all underperformed the broader index. Real estate (1.2%) was the worst performing sector.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/189243607.pdfFebruary, 2022
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned -6.4% during the month. Australian equities underperformed in January as global equity markets faced a correction. In the major developed markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 6.2%, the US S&P 500 was down 5.3% and the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 was down 2.8% (in local currency terms). The UK’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend to be up 1.1%. Monetary policy settings remained unchanged during the month as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not meet in January.
Domestic economic data releases in January were mixed. The Q4 inflation rate was up 1.3%, while the annual rate rose to 3.5% due to rising fuel prices, supply chain issues, material shortages and increased demand. Employment rose by 64,800 positions in December, which was above market expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the lowest reading since August 2008, after COVID-19 lockdowns were lifted. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions fell 3 points, to 8 in December, while business confidence sank to -12 (from 12 in November) as Omicron and the “shadow lockdown” hit businesses hard. Retail sales rose 7.3% in November. Sector returns were mostly negative in January.
The best performing, and only sectors to post positive returns and outperform the broader index were energy (7.9%), utilities (2.6%) and materials (0.8%). Financials (-6.5%), industrials (- 7.6%), communication services (-8.0%), consumer discretionary (-8.7%), real estate (-9.5%), consumer staples (-9.6%) and health care (-12.1%) all underperformed the broader index, while information technology (-18.4%) was the worst performing sector. The Fund significantly outperformed the benchmark during January (net). Key contributors to performance included holdings in BHP, Santos and Iluka Resources. Key detractors from performance included the underweight in Rio Tinto, nil holding in Fortescue Metals and overweight in Ramsay Healthcare.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/186324531.pdfNovember, 2021
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned -0.5% during the month. Australian equities outperformed global markets in November, as the emergence of the Omicron variant led to investor concerns regarding economic growth and falls in global equity markets. In the major developed markets, the US S&P 500 was down 0.7%, the UK’s FTSE 100 was down 2.2%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 3.7% and the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 was down 4.3% (in local currency terms). Local sector returns were mixed in November. The best performing sectors were materials (6.3%), communication services (5.2%) and real estate (4.5%). Consumer staples (4.4%), utilities (3.9%), health care (1.4%) and industrials (0.9%) also outperformed the broader index. Consumer discretionary (-1.2%), information technology (-2.9%) and financials (-6.9%) all underperformed the broader index, while energy (-8.3%) was the worst performing sector.
Monetary policy settings shifted in November, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated it would maintain the cash rate at 0.10% but confirmed that the 3-year yield target had been discontinued. The RBA also reaffirmed its government bond purchase program, intending to purchase AUD 4 billion a week until at least mid-February 2022. Domestic economic data releases in November were mixed. Employment fell by 46,300 positions in October, which was below market expectations. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.2%. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions rose 6 points, to 11 in October, while business confidence rose further to 21 (from a downwardly revised 10 in September) as the path out of lockdown became clearer and vaccination rates continued to improve. Retail sales rose 1.3% in September. National CoreLogic dwelling prices saw another consecutive monthly rise in November, ending the month up 1.3%, however there is a notable trend of milder price growth.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/182822351.pdfMarch, 2021
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned 2.4% during the month. Australian equities lagged most key offshore markets as commodity prices experienced a pull-back during March. In major global developed markets the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 was up 7.9%, the US S&P 500 was up 4.4%, the UK’s FTSE 100 was up 4.2% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the laggard, up 1.4% (in local currency terms).
Domestic economic data releases in March were mostly upbeat. December 2020 GDP was up 3.1% for the quarter, however the annual GDP rate was still negative at -1.1%. Employment rose by 88,700 positions in February. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, which was better than expected. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions rebounded to 15 in February, its highest level since early 2010. Business confidence was also higher at 16. Retail sales were up 0.5% in January. National CoreLogic dwelling prices saw another consecutive monthly rise in March, ending the month up 2.8%, which was the fastest monthly rise since October 1988.
File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/172354603.pdfDecember, 2020
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returned 1.2% during the month. Australian equities lagged key offshore markets during the month. Despite COVID-19 cases rising exponentially in the US and Europe, the start of the vaccine roll-out and further certainty regarding the US election result saw equities move higher. In major global developed markets Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 3.8%, the US S&P 500 was up 3.7%, the UK’s FTSE 100 was up 3.1% and the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 was up 2.0%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained monetary policy settings in December after having delivered a rate cut and additional measures to support the recovery at its November meeting (where the cash rate was cut from 0.25% to 0.10%, as was the 3 year yield target). The parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program were also maintained in December.
Domestic economic data releases in December were mostly upbeat. Q3 GDP exceeded expectations to be up 3.3%, partially recovering from the record -7% recorded in Q2. Employment rose by 90,000 positions in November, which exceeded market expectations. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.8%, which was also better than expected. The NAB Survey of Business Conditions showed improvement, rising to 9 in November, and is now at above average levels. Business confidence also improved, rising to 12. Retail sales were up 1.4% in October.
National CoreLogic dwelling prices saw a third consecutive monthly rise in December, ending the month up 1.0%, and closing the year 3.0% higher. Sector returns were mixed in December. The best performing sectors were information technology (9.5%), materials (8.8%) and consumer staples (2.3%). Sectors that underperformed the broader market included consumer discretionary (1.0%), real estate (-0.2%), financials (-0.5%), communication services (- 0.6%), energy (-0.9%), industrials (-2.7%) and healthcare (- 4.9%). Utilities (-5.4%) was the worst performing sector.
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ticker: MMF0700AU
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The fund aims to provide income and achieve returns (before fees and taxes) that on average exceed inflation by at least 4.5% p.a., over periods of ten years or more. The fund invests in a diversified mix of Australian assets with a bias towards income producing growth assets. The fund is actively managed in accordance with a disciplined investment process.