ADV0049AU Advance Wholesale Defensive Multi-Blend Fund


August, 2023

Reported mid-August, Australian seasonally adjusted employment for July decreased by 14,600. A combination of a loss of 24,200 full time jobs, offset by a 9,600 increase in parttime employment, this number was well below expectations for a 15,000 gain. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% (consensus was 3.6%) and the participation rate slipped to 66.7%, just under 66.8% expectations.

Australian building approvals decreased 8.1% in August (month-on-month figures to July), compared to the decrease of 7.9% (revised) for June. Total US non-farm payrolls increased by 187,000 in August and was modestly above the adjusted 170,000 increase reported in July, however, well below the monthly average gain of 271,000 over the prior 12 months. Downward adjustments to US employment data have been prevalent over 2023 with sizeable reductions for every month (e.g. June has been cut from its original 209,000 to 105,000). For August, US unemployment rate stepped up to 3.8% (well above 3.5% expectations).

The second estimate for Q2 2023 US GDP was 2.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ, annualised), below July’s preliminary figure of 2.4%, as revised inventory figures swung from being a gain to a small drag on GDP growth.

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July, 2023

In July, global equity markets maintained current upward momentum with most regions delivering solid, positive returns. On the other hand, fixed income performance was mixed, although in this “risk on” phase of the cycle, riskier parts of the sector fared better.

A combination of further declines in headline inflation, resilient economic data, particularly from the US, and market expectations that the current interest rate hiking cycle is nearing an end, led to positive investor sentiment throughout the month.

The advanced Q2 2023 US GDP growth figure was reported late month, coming in at 2.4% and surprising market economist estimates of 1.8%. On the flipside, UK and Eurozone growth was close to flat. Benefitting from the base effects of emerging from its extensive 2022 Covid lockdown, China’s GDP growth rate was measured at an annualised 6.3%, though a little below 7.3% expectations. Forward-looking composite purchasing manager indices (PMI) kept falling across the globe in July, with Japan the only region holding steady. PMIs for the services sector continue to outpace manufacturing though are easing towards 50, an important level that is considered the line between expansion and contraction.

Inflation data continued to decline, somewhat aided by the impact of last year’s energy price surge rolling off. US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.0% p.a and is at the lowest level since early 2021. Similarly, CPI data across the UK, Eurozone and Australia, continues to show easing inflationary conditions, albeit at higher levels than the US. CPI has flatlined at near zero in China. Japan was the only major country that recorded a marginal increase in its inflation rate during Q2 2023. Central banks continued to err on the side of caution, increasing rates by 25bps in the US and Eurozone and 50bps in the UK, where inflation remains the highest among major developed economies. Central banks continued to emphasise a data-driven approach to future rate adjustments. In the US, which is furthest ahead in the inflation cycle, markets are now pricing in a greater than 50% chance that the Fed’s policy rate has peaked and interest rate cuts maybe forthcoming in 2024.

Over July, Hedged Developed Markets Overseas Shares delivered a 2.8% return. US indices were broadly in line with international developed markets, however, Emerging Markets (unhedged) outperformed with a positive 4.9% return. Value modestly outperformed growth over the period, although when looking on a year-to-date basis, mega-cap tech stocks still dominate returns and has led to increased market concentration within that segment of global markets. In the US, with roughly half of S&P500 companies having reported their Q2 2023 earnings, FactSet currently projects a 7% quarter over quarter (QoQ) earnings decline, which would be the softest quarterly outcome since the height of Covid’s impact. That said, to date the majority of companies have reported better than expected earnings results.

Hedged Overseas Government Bonds returned -0.4% over the month, as bond yields across most regions increased in July. Yields on both key long bonds in the US (10-year and 30-year) rose by approximately 15bps over the month. Outside the US, Japan’s 10-year yield rose by around 19bps, which is noteworthy following the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will further increase the upper tolerance range for the 10-year yield (now 1.0% vs 0.5% previously). The UK was the only major economy where the 10-year yield fell, albeit modestly.

Australian Shares returned 2.9%, marginally outperforming their overseas counterparts in July. Financials (4.9%) and Energy (8.4%) were the strongest sectors of the market, while Healthcare (-1.5%), and Materials (1.4%) detracted.

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June, 2023

Significant developments

• Australian seasonally adjusted employment increased by 75,900 in May, well ahead of expectations for an increase of 17,500 and significantly above the prior month’s decrease of 4,300. Unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%, below expectations of 3.7%, with the participation rate increasing to 66.9% (above expectations of 66.7%). Full time jobs increased by 61,700 and part-time jobs +14,200.
• Australian building approvals increased by 20.6% monthon-month to May, compared to the decrease of -6.8% (revised) for April.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index (US) recorded 46 in June, below consensus for 47.1 and below the 46.9 recorded in May. Of the four manufacturing industries that reported growth in May, the top performers were Printing & Related Support Activities; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. There were 11 industries that recorded contraction in June compared to May. The ISM Services Index recorded 53.9 in June, above consensus for 51.2 and above the 50.3 recorded in May. Of the 15 services industries that reported growth, the top performers were Accommodation & Food Services; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation. There were three industries that reported a decrease in the month of June.
• US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 209,000 in June, below the 339,000 increase recorded for May. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.6% over June and in line with expectations.
• The third estimate of US GDP for Q1 2023 was 2% quarter on quarter (annualised), above expectations of 1.4%.
• China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5 in June, above expectations of 50, as there was a modest rise in manufacturing production over the month.
• The preliminary estimate of the European Core CPI was 5.4% (year to June), marginally below expectations of 5.5%.
• The Eurozone composite PMI increased to 49.9 in June, below expectations for 50.3, showing slightly contractionary conditions.
• Eurozone seasonally adjusted GDP (first estimate for Q1 2023) was -0.1% QoQ and 1% YoY.

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April, 2023

Significant developments

• Australian March CPI rose 1.4% for the first quarter of 2023 taking the one year figure to 7.0%. The quarterly rise has been the lowest since December 2021.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index recorded 47.1 in April, above consensus for 46.8 and above the 46.3 recorded in March. Of the five manufacturing industries that reported growth in March, the top performers were Printing & Related Support Activities and Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. There were 11 industries that recorded contraction in April compared to March. The ISM Services Index recorded 51.9 in April, above consensus for 51.8 and above the 51.2 recorded in March. Of the 14 services industries that reported growth, the top performers were Arts, Entertainment & Recreation and Other Services. There were three industries that reported a decrease in the month of April.
• US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 253,000 in April, above the 236,000 increase recorded for March. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.4% over April, below expectations of 3.6%.
• US GDP first estimate for Q1 2023 is 1.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ) annualised, below expectations of 1.9%.
• The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China recorded 49.5 in April, below expectations of 50, as business conditions moderated slightly over the month.
• The preliminary estimate of the European Core CPI recorded 5.6% over the year to April, in line with expectations.
• The Eurozone composite PMI increased to 54.4 in April, above expectations for 53.7.
• The first estimate recorded for Q1 2021 Eurozone seasonally adjusted GDP is 0.1% QoQ and 1.3% YoY.

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February, 2023

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend underperformed the benchmark by 47bps during the month of February. Relative manager performance was mixed over the month, with TwentyFour and TCW underperforming versus the benchmark whilst Kapstream outperformed. TwentyFour underperformed over the month as broader spread widening in financials as well as non-financial corporates, led to some weakness in underlying returns. The ABS positions however contributed positively as the sector continues to recover from its LDI squeeze and it’s floating rate nature provided a natural hedge against rising rates. TCW also underperformed with duration being the primary detractor as Treasury yields rose over concerns of persistent inflation data that drove expectations for more restrictive Fed policy. Against this backdrop, the allocation to credit and securitized sectors contributed to relative performance. Kapstream fared well during February with its conservative approach to duration positioning allowing the portfolio to mitigate against rising government bond yields.

Australian physical credit spreads also compressed domestically, which allowed for some capital appreciation withing the portfolio. The fixed income markets traded with mixed results for the month of February as government bond yields generally rose and credit markets struggled to make an impact, with relatively limited moves in credit spreads. Overall, risk markets moved little in February after higher volatility in previous months. Most major central banks raised interest rates early in the month, all of which were expected. Inflations continued to slacken, led by softer energy prices. However, certain upward influences such as higher food prices continue to retain the attention of policymakers who remain concerned for the potential of a renewed uptick in inflation data.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 50bp in early February taking the benchmark rate to 3.0%, a 15-year high. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the hawkish stance of eurozone policymakers by saying a further 50bp increase is planned for the March meeting. Headline inflation fell back in January, though the core measure edged higher. The Bank of England also hiked rates by 50 basis points and accompanied by a dovish statement. In the US, the Federal Reserve increased official rates once more, as was widely expected, but policymakers opted to hike by just 25bp, which might signal a deceleration in monetary tightening. While recent improvements in inflation may pave the way for a softer approach, meeting minutes showed the Federal Open Market Committee believes risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside and that it would not consider lowering rates “until inflation is clearly on a path to 2%.” Feb members, including Chair Powell, pushed a potential “higher for longer” narrative following strong US economic data. Economic data out of the US was generally stronger than expected, which saw the market reprice terminal cash rates higher as the expectation is that central banks will need to continue to hike rates to slow economies to bring inflation down. The labour market remained tight and the unemployment rate moved down from 3.6% to 3.4%, the lowest level in more than 50 years, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in January resulting in an annual increase of 4.4%, while consumer sentiment continued to improve. January inflation data was in line with consensus. Headline inflation rose 0.4% for the month and resulting in an annual increase of 6.4%, whilst core inflation was 0.4% and 5.6% for the same periods.

The US 10-year and 2-year yields increased by 41 bps and 61 bps to 3.92% and 4.82% respectively. Global credit bonds underperformed duration-equivalent government bonds as spreads widened. Higher yields and the prospect of “higher for longer” interest rate regimes weighed on fixed income assets. Investment grade corporates were down the most (-3.2%), lagging Treasuries by over 50 bps on a duration-adjusted basis, while agency MBS also posted negative excess returns. Despite slipping 1.3%, high yield corporates finished ahead of durationadjusted Treasuries by 39 bps, as did securitized credit with ABS and CMBS ahead of Treasuries by 26 and 24 bps, respectively.

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January, 2023

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend outperformed the benchmark by 96bps during the month of January. TwentyFour rebounded strongly over the month as the fixed income rally continued. The portfolio made its largest gains in the higher beta areas, corporate hybrids and subordinated financials but made gains across the board as government bonds also rallied. TCW also delivered strong returns in January.

The portfolio’s positive duration profile benefitted relative performance given the move lower in rates throughout the month, with the corporate credit allocation also key to outperformance as both investment grade and high yield corporates finished ahead of duration-matched Treasuries. Meanwhile, the impact from securitized products was an additional tailwind as all securitized sectors posted positive excess returns, with non-agency MBS providing the largest benefit as yield spreads tightened throughout the month, carrying over momentum from December.

Kapstream posted a monthly gain of +0.57% in January, taking the three month return to 1.10% as the higher yield environment which developed over 2022 continued to add to returns as anticipated. Australian physical credit spreads compressed in the month, further supporting the portfolio’s returns given the modest but positive credit exposures.

Government bonds strengthened as yields declined in most major markets in January. Most larger central banks did not hold rate-setting meetings during the month, resulting in no changes to interest rate policy. Inflation, which remained the primary concern of most central banks, generally fell back slightly, though markets continued to anticipate more interest rate increases despite the fragile global economic outlook. Warmer weather in Europe, lower natural gas prices, and China’s reopening added to the optimism. In Europe, headline eurozone inflation fell back more than expected in January, declining to 9.2% from 10.1%, but core inflation continued to increase.

There was no rate-setting meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) in January but ECB policymakers continued with hawkish rhetoric, calling for rate increases to be continued and for some time. Minutes from the December meeting showed some members called for a third successive 75bp increase, but the consensus agreed on 50bp. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) noted that labour market indicators were loosening, and data indicated sluggish economic activity. In the US, continued hawkish rhetoric emanating from the Federal Reserve (Fed) led the market to anticipate another, albeit smaller, rate hike in early February. Inflation continued to decline and initial data for GDP growth for Q4 2022 was a little better than had been expected at 2.9%, but still weaker than in Q3. Forward-looking indicators of economic activity seemed to confirm a softer tone, suggesting that the effects of higher interest rates is being reflected in the real economy.

In Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes released earlier in the month, the Fed reiterated their resolve to bring down inflation. The Fed commented that the move from 75 to 50 basis points “was not an indication of any weakening of the committee’s resolve to achieve its pricestability goal”. Fed officials’ median projections for the appropriate path of interest rates also revealed that none of the Fed officials expect that it will be appropriate to cut interest rates in 2023.

This is at odds with market pricing. The US 10-year and 2-year yields decreased by 37 bps and 22 bps to 3.51% and 4.2% respectively. Global credit bonds outperformed in January as spreads tightened, with all sectors outpacing treasuries on a duration-equivalent basis. Corporate credit posted a strong month, led by the high yield cohort with 218 bps of positive excess returns, while investment grade corporates bested duration-matched Treasuries by 120 bps. Securitized sectors were also positive, led by agency MBS given a reduction in rate volatility, followed by CMBS and ABS.

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December, 2022

The Advance International Equities Multi-Blend Fund declined 3.87% in December, outperforming the MSCI World ex-Australia Index by 1.62%. Global equities sold off in December as recession fears and expectations of earnings downgrades weighed on investor sentiment. A persistently hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve Chair Powell compounded these concerns over the month. Against this background, Wellington Global Opportunistic Value was the top contributor to relative performance. The strategy invests in companies that have sold off due to increased uncertainty.

Strong stock selection in the US consumer discretionary sector drove outperformance over the month. Conversely, Ardevora was the largest detractor from performance. The manager applies a framework based on cognitive psychology to identify risky management behaviour and errors made by investors and analysts. Negative stock selection, particularly in financials and industrials detracted over the month. From a country perspective, strong stock selection in the United States was the top contributor to relative performance, while the fund’s overweight to Korea was the top detractor from relative performance. On a sector level, effective stock selection in consumer discretionary names was the top contributor to relative performance, whereas the overweight to utilities was the largest detractor. The fund’s underweight to Tesla was the top driver of relative performance whereas the overweight to the London Stock Exchange Group was the heaviest detractor.

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November, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend outperformed the benchmark by 72bps during the month of November. Relative manager performance was positive over the month, with TCW and TwentyFour both outperforming whilst Kapstream detracted at the margins.

In TCW’s case, the improved sentiment in November and the decline in rates led to a positive total return for the mandate. With Treasury yields rallying by as much as 49 bps, the positive duration profile was the largest driver of outperformance, with the allocation to investment grade corporate credit also contributing.

TwentyFour also rebounded strongly as credit spreads contracted leading to a recovery in portfolio values. Kapstream detracted at the margins with is credit protection hedges and swap positions giving back some of the gains accrued in the months prior.

There was a pronounced shift in sentiment in November. While inflation remained at the forefront of policymakers’ and investors’ minds, weakening inflation indicators, global growth concerns and the prospect of future policy rate cuts led to a more balanced and supportive macroeconomic backdrop for fixed income market. Weaker-than-expected October Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in the US acted as a catalyst for a sharp rally in global fixed-income markets.

Most global sovereign yields declined on signs of easing inflation across major economies. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked the Bank Rate by 75 bps to 3.00% and began its scheduled sale of UK gilt holdings, while the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, unveiled the full autumn budget, which saw a fiscal consolidation of £55 billion.

In Europe, the initial estimate for eurozone headline inflation fell back to 10% in November, a greater decline than expected. Consumer confidence in the eurozone improved notably in November, reflecting a similar solid improvement in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in a much better outcome than had been anticipated by the market. Eurozone yields dropped following below-consensus CPI data, despite hawkish rhetoric by the European Central Bank policymakers and an anticipated rate hike in December.

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October, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend outperformed the benchmark during the month of October. Relative manager performance was mixed over the month, with TwentyFour outperforming while TCW and Kapstream detracting at the margins.

Kapstream delivered a negative return owing to its interest rate hedges attracting a negative outcome (as yields contracted). However, the coupon income carry in the portfolio helped to largely offset the impact from these adverse market movements, with the yield to maturity rising further to close at 5.25% at month end. In TCW’s case, the theme was similar with the rise in rates leading to negative return for the mandate. Relative performance was also held back by the positive duration position as rates rose, and by the allocation to lagging securitized products. In particular, the position in legacy non-agency MBS detracted as spreads widened.

TwentyFour however rebounded modestly as the yields across a number of its hybrid positions recovered as sentiment improved across the sector. It was another volatile month in October with mixed government bond markets, which generally weakened against an ongoing backdrop of inflation and increased monetary tightening. Policymakers continue to assess the trade-off between reducing inflation and maintaining economic growth. Global government bond yields traded over a wide range during the month and posted mixed returns.

Major central banks continued to raise rates. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 75bp as had been widely expected, taking the refinancing and deposit facility rates to the highest rates since 2009. The hikes accompanied warnings of further increases to come, as inflation remained “far too high,” reflecting continued increasing inflation in the broad eurozone.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised their overnight rate by a less than expected 0.50% to 3.75%. BoC Governor Macklin noted that ‘this tightening phase will draw to a close. We are getting closer, but we aren’t there yet’. In the United Kingdom, the new Chancellor reversed the tax cuts plan of his predecessor, which helped settle gilt markets and propel a market recovery as yields fell sharply.

The Bank of England (BoE) announced that they would be intervening in the gilt market. The BoE stated that the move was necessary as ‘the prospect of self-reinforcing ‘fire sale’ dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability’ and was driven by feedback that the need to liability driven investment funds to deleverage would accelerate and greatly exaggerate instability. The BoE also confirmed that Quantitative Tightening (balance sheet reduction) would begin at the end of October. There had been some speculation that bond sales may have been delayed given the market turmoil.

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September, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend underperformed the benchmark by 1.91% during the month of September.

Against a backdrop of rising rates and continued hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, TCW’s performance trailed the Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index by nearly 266 bps for the month. The positive duration position was the biggest drag on relative returns. Sector positioning was mixed. Corporate bonds contributed to relative returns as intermediate corporates outpaced Treasuries for the period, with only long credit lagging, while securitized was a drag due to exposure to agency MBS, which widened to post-2008 levels.

TwentyFour also lagged the benchmark as exposures to hybrids, however short dated, continue to pressure the portfolio’s performance. Kapstream fared better although it did still underperform relative to the benchmark.

It was another volatile month in September across fixed-income markets and global bond yields continued to rise. Global central banks continued fight against inflation led markets to raise policy rate forecasts. Lower energy prices and a moderation of future inflation expectations did little to assuage macroeconomic uncertainty amid growing recession concerns.

Persistent inflation and tighter monetary policies resulted in negative returns across most global sovereign markets. Central banks across most developed markets reinforced their hawkish intentions and expressed a willingness to keep policy in restrictive territory, even in the face of slower growth and weaker labour markets. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) also raised rates by 75bp. Inflation in the eurozone increased by 9.1%, year over year. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that central bank would need to keep hiking rates over several meetings to get inflation back under control.

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August, 2022

The Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of August. Against a backdrop of rising rates and continued hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, TCW’s performance trailed the Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index by nearly 150 bps for the month. Returns were held back largely by the strategy’s positive duration position given the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with a smaller headwind resulting from the position in agency MBS as the sector retraced gains from July to post negative excess returns for the month. TwentyFour also lagged the benchmark as exposures to hybrids, however short dated, continue to pressure the portfolio’s performance.

Kapstream outperformed the benchmark as the fund’s Australian credit exposures benefitted with a lag from the compression in credit spreads seen elsewhere in July. August was another volatile month with increased market expectations for more rate hikes over the remainder of this year, coupled with diminishing expectations for rate cuts in 2023. Slowing growth, an intensifying energy crisis, and steadfast hawkish remarks from major central banks to combat unyielding inflation elicited a sharp increase in sovereign yields, weighing on fixed income markets.

Most global sovereign yields rose sharply, particularly in Europe, on higher-than-expected inflation and continuing hawkish narrative from major central banks. The Bank of England (BoE) hiked the Bank Rate by 50 bps to 1.75%, the largest hike since 1995. UK inflation data released subsequently exceeded expectations at 0.6% in July and seeing the annual inflation rate at 10.1%. The European Central Bank (ECB) also hit the headlines late in the month with reports emerging that some members of the Governing Council want to discuss a 75-bps increase at their September meeting. Attending the Jackson Hole summit, two members of the Governing Council also warned that a larger sacrifice will be needed to tame inflation and that price growth risks risk spinning out of control.

Energy prices continued to surge in Europe and inflation increased further, reaching 9.1% in its initial reading for August up from 8.9% in July. In the US, strong labour market data and hawkish rhetoric from several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members added additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields. In Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, he reiterated that US policymakers “must keep at it until the job is done,” implying that interest rate increases will continue, adding that successfully controlling inflation is likely to restrain economic growth “for some time.” Inflation did decline in July at the headline level, falling back more than had been expected, to 8.5%, from 9.1%, while the core rate remained steady at 5.9%.

The yield curve inverted further as short rates raced higher in anticipation of additional central bank tightening, with the U.S. 2-Year yield up 61 bps to 3.5%, while the U.S. 10-Year yield rose by 54 bps to 3.2%. It was a volatile month for spread sectors. The risk appetite remained fragile because of the macroeconomic uncertainty and the instability in government bond markets.

Global credit bonds slightly outperformed duration-equivalent government bonds as US spreads tightened modestly. In the securitized sectors, the risk-on rally in the early parts of the month helped propel non-agency CMBS and ABS to positive excess returns, with yield spreads across both legacy and non-agency MBS also tightening throughout August. Agency MBS and CMBS, however, fared worse amid the rising rates and hawkish rhetoric in the latter half of the month as both trailed duration-matched Treasuries.

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July, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi-Blend Fund outperformed the during the month of July. Relative manager performance was generally positive over the month with TCW and TwentyFour both rebounding strongly after an extended period of underperformance. Kapstream was modestly down versus the benchmark. The contraction of credit spreads was the biggest driver of performance alongside a decline in rates which also provided a positive tailwind to returns. Despite ongoing concerns around inflation, recessionary fears and central bank tightening, markets managed to stage a solid rebound in July. Global government bond yields fell as fears over weakening global growth were amplified. Inflation data continued to surpass expectations, while falling commodity prices raised hopes of a potential easing in inflation and a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening. Russia appears to be limiting supplies significantly, leading European policymakers to step up their plans for rationalising gas usage across the continent in the months ahead and increasing concerns for a European recession. Most global sovereign yields declined on recession fears, even as major central banks continued front-loading their hiking cycles. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years with an increase of 50 bps, above the 25bps expected, taking the deposit facility rate back to zero from -0.5%. Headline inflation across the eurozone rose to 8.6% in June from 8.1%. The ECB’s announcement of a new policy tool, the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) was a positive tailwind, while concerns over Russian gas supplies to Europe were omnipresent. In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the federal funds rate with a second consecutive 75bps increase to 2.50%, in line with market expectations. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowdown in economic activity, that the policy rate was now “in the range of what the FOMC think is neutral” and that it will “become appropriate to slow the pace of increases” as monetary policy tightens further. The hike came after another large increase in headline inflation, to 9.1% for June, the highest level since 1981. Bond yields traded in a wide range during the month with the longer end of the curve outperforming. 10-year bond yields traded in a 50 bps range, peaking at 3.08% before rallying over the second half of the month to end 36 bps lower at 2.65%. 2-year yields in the US traded in a 42 bps range and ended the month 7 bps lower in yield at 2.88%. Corporate credit bonds also improved during the month as spreads tightened. Investment grade credit gained over 3.0% for the month and outpaced duration-matched Treasuries by 94 bps. Nearly every corporate sector posted positive excess returns, led by railroads, aerospace/defence, food & beverage, and restaurants. High yield corporates rallied 5.9% with positive excess returns of 434 bps, supported by a strong technical backdrop. In the securitized sectors, agency MBS outperformed duration-matched Treasuries by 129 bps, marking the highest monthly excess return in history, while yield spreads tightened by 19 bps as interest rates reversed course and fell for the month. Meanwhile, ABS trailed Treasuries by 10 bps and yield spreads widened by 7 bps while CMBS performed largely in line with Treasuries.

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June, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend-Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of June. Notwithstanding the positive carry from the portfolio’s credit positions, our underlying manager’s performance was again negative over the month as rising bond yields and the widening of credit spread continue to impact overall performance.

Managers such as TCW and TwentyFour (who are exposed to higher beta sectors in the credit markets) were more negatively impacted then peers. Our underlying managers continue to maintain a defensive tilt given the volatility in markets and have ample liquidity to add positions if volatility persists. However, a cautious approach remains until further clarity is evident in the medium term.

It was another volatile month in fixed-income markets. High energy prices, the Ukraine war and Covid related supply side bottlenecks and tight labour markets have continued to drive inflation higher globally. Global government bond yields continued to move higher following ongoing monetary policy tightening intentions in response to persistent inflation pressures. While inflation remained the dominant theme, an increasing number of activity indicators disappointed during the month across the US, UK and Europe, adding to growing fears over the global growth outlook. Global sovereign yields moved sharply higher as most major central banks supercharged their hiking cycles. The Bank of England raised the bank rate by a further 25 bps as expected, which was the fifth straight increase, bringing rates to the highest level since 2009. The European Central Bank announced its plan to end QE and indicated it would begin raising rates in July while initiating a program to avoid fragmentation across eurozone government bond markets. President Lagarde suggested a larger hike would be appropriate in September, if inflation pressures persist.

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April, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi-blend Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of April. Notwithstanding the positive carry from the portfolio’s credit positions, our underlying manager’s performance was negative. This is a relatively resilient outcome given continued stresses across most markets and further sharp falls in risk assets, not to mention highly unusual and temporary positive correlation between rates and credit spreads. Coupon income remained consistently positive, though this was offset by credit spread widening. Rising sovereign yields also detracted from performance.

Our underlying managers continue to maintain a defensive tilt given the historically tight spreads and abundant risks. With ample levels of liquidity, we remain confident that our managers have the right framework to respond to potential volatility and opportunities in the market. The economic outlook remains extremely uncertain following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While supply-side disruptions keep energy, commodity and food prices elevated, the growth implications are clearly negative. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, now expects global growth to be 3.6% this year, down from 4.4% projected in January. Further downside risks to growth stem from China’s commitment to its zero-Covid policy, which has seen strict mobility restrictions imposed in several regions, including Shanghai. The combination of higher inflation and the prospect of slower growth poses a significant challenge to policymakers.

Most global sovereign yields rose, as markets dialled up expectations for future monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In the US, another high CPI print and hawkish rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell, suggesting a 50bps rate hike at the May FOMC meeting, contributed to a sharp increase in yields. Bunds, Gilts and peripheral European yields also ended the month higher. At its policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed its plan to scale down monetary policy accommodation saying that the latest data, which included March eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) jumping from 5.9% to 7.5%, “reinforce its expectation” that its asset purchase program should end in Q3 this year.

With the Fed on track to hike again in early May and the pace of hikes expected to remain steady, the US 2-Year yield rose 38 bps to 2.7%. The benchmark US10-Year yield reached 2.9%, a rise of nearly 60 bps, while US 30-Year yields rose 55 bps to 3.0%.

Corporate credit bonds were also weaker during the month, marked by a 3.8% decline in the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. Corporate credit was particularly weak, which was led lower by non-financial assets. After a small remediation of yield spreads in March, April brought forth another month of widening, as spreads finished 19 bps wider for the month, and 42 bps wider year-to-date. Yields among investment grade credit have now risen to 4.2%, the highest level seen in recent years, and the same level as the high yield index at the start of the year. Higher yields provide a cushion against rising rates and have also led to improved valuations.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-9.pdf

February, 2022

The Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of February. Notwithstanding the positive carry from the portfolio’s credit positions, all underlying manager performance was firmly negative as rates continued to increase across the curve. This has had an impact on the capital value of the securities as duration underperformed. Exposure to corporate credit and the securitised sectors also detracted as credit spreads widened during the month of February. Our underlying managers continue to maintain a defensive tilt given the historically tight spreads and abundant risks. With ample levels of liquidity, we remain confident that our managers have the right framework to respond to potential volatility and opportunities in the market. As the European geopolitical crisis continued to unfold, and as economic uncertainty escalated with Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, most fixed income sectors underperformed amid broad credit spread widening, jointly with sovereign yield increases spurred by major central banks tightening stance.

The month began with markets continuing to respond to rising inflation and the prospect of accelerated central bank tightening before a rapid escalation of geopolitical tensions culminated in Russia launching a full-scale invasion into Ukrainian territory. Western nations announced joint sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and suspended select Russian Banks from SWIFT. There was much action on the policy front. Staring with Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia ended its QE program. European Central Bank President Lagarde refused to rule out 2022 rate hike. The Bank of England hiked rates by 25 basis points, with four dissenters voting for a 50-basis points hike. The Riksbank expects asset purchases to remain unchanged in 2022. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 25 basis points, opening the door to hiking by “larger increments,” and raised cash rate projections to 3.4% in the third quarter of 2024. The Central Bank of Russia hiked policy rate from 9.5% to 20%, the highest since 2003, to defend the Russian Ruble.

In the US, optimism regarding the recovery from COVID-19 continued to rise as stronger-than-expected labour, inflation and retail sales data pushed markets to anticipate faster Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and earlier balance sheet reductions. Most global sovereign yields rose, driven by prospects of more aggressive central bank tightening amid higher inflation prints, though select G10 yields had a partial reversal around month-end driven by geopolitical concerns. In the US, hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials led to a bear flattening in the US curve. In Europe, bund yields moved higher after the perceived hawkish shift in European Central Bank rhetoric. Italian government bonds (BTPs) and Spanish bonds underperformed, and their spreads over bunds widened. Emerging markets yields generally increased in the second half of the month particularly in CEEMEA (South Africa, Poland, and Czech Republic) and LATAM (Brazil, Mexico). Meanwhile a measure of inflation expectations - the breakeven inflation rate increased by 14 basis points to 2.62% during the month on the back of higher energy prices and expected oil supply shortages.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-8.pdf

January, 2022

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of January. Performance was negative with most of our underlying managers underperforming the benchmark. Notwithstanding the positive carry from the portfolio’s credit positions, our underlying manager’s performance was firmly negative as rates increased substantially across the curve. This has had an impact on the capital value of the securities. Exposure to corporate credit also detracted as both investment grade and high yield trailed duration-matched Treasuries, while securitized products only marginally lagged Treasuries, with allocations detracting modestly. TCW and TwentyFour were the main detractors in the portfolio over the month of January. Kapstream was able to mitigate the impacts of rising rates owing to a lower overall modified duration number than its comparable global counterparts. A hawkish tilt in major central banks’ rhetoric, mixed global macroeconomic data underscored by persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Russia-NATO conflict marked a volatile start of year. Most fixed income sectors uncharacteristically underperformed in conjunction with the increase in sovereign yields.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-7.pdf

December, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund outperformed the benchmark during the month of December.

Performance was positive, with all our underlying managers outperforming the benchmark. Notwithstanding minor headwinds coming from the duration position as rates rose for intermediate maturities, our underlying manager performance were slightly positive - driven by tighter credit spreads and excess carry which helped offset the impact of higher bond yields. Our managers remain focus on high conviction, high quality names and defensive sectors like communications and non-cyclicals, with an eye towards migrating down the quality spectrum to take advantage of expected further dislocation in more credit sensitive sectors.

Notwithstanding some intra-month volatility, global developed market (DM) government bond yields ended the month higher. Markets were buoyed by reports showing considerably lower hospitalization and death rates associated with the new Covid Omicron variant despite some initial jitters earlier in the month. Central banks further progressed on their paths toward policy normalization during the period as inflation broadened out across more goods and services.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) accelerated the timeline for tapering its large-scale asset purchase program and projected three rate hikes in both 2022 and 2023. The Bank of England (BOE) hiked rates for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, citing persistent price pressures. While it expects to keep its policy rate on hold through the end of 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would conclude its purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program by March. The Norges Bank once again lifted its policy rate and indicated more hikes were likely, depending on the evolution of the pandemic. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan diverged from many of their peers, maintaining policy rates of -0.75% and -0.1%, respectively.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-6.pdf

November, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of November. Performance was negative with all our underlying managers underperforming the benchmark.

Notwithstanding a small tailwind coming from the duration position as rates declined for intermediate maturities, underperformance was driven by wider credit spreads and, in particular, a wider swap spread curve which typically occurs during periods of higher risk aversion. Fixed income spread sectors underperformed government bonds amid renewed market uncertainty. Sovereign bond yields declined in unison, and credit spreads widened as the detection of the COVID-19 variant Omicron added new concerns to the increasing inflationary strain. US economic data released was largely positive. Non-farm payrolls posted gains, the unemployment rate dropped, and weekly jobless claims edged down steadily. Eurozone’s composite PMI rose on improved service sector activity. In the UK, manufacturing PMI improved, while near-decade high energy prices stoked inflation. Robust export demand in China lifted industrial production. Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted as supply disruptions and weak consumption weighed on growth. Canada’s unemployment rate fell, though the number of jobs added was below estimates. In Australia, labour force participation recovered but unemployment rose.

Fed Chair Powell was nominated for a second term. Fed Chair comments and the FOMC meeting minutes alluded to a fast-tracked taper if inflation persists. The Bank of England voted to maintain rates on hold and kept the QE target unchanged. The Riksbank projected its first rate hike in Q2 of 2024. The RBA abandoned its bond-yield target. The Norges Bank anticipates a rate hike in December. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand disappointed with a 25bps rate hike relative to market expectations for a 50bps rate hike. All other major central banks kept their policy rates unchanged. Most global sovereign yields declined across developed and emerging markets; a move accelerated by the discovery of the Omicron variant. Markets reassessed the likelihood of future rate hikes, even as inflation remained stronger than many had expected, particularly in the US and Europe. The US Treasury yield curve flattened after the initial yield increase from Fed’s hawkish comments was offset by a subsequent drop stemming from the discovery of Omicron. European yields fell across the curve, impacted by news of rising virus cases, new potential lockdowns, and Chancellor Merkel’s cautionary remarks. APAC rates also fell sharply, while EM yields ended mixed. The Bloomberg TIPS index returned 0.89% on a total return basis and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate decreased by 7bps to 2.51% during the month.

Global credit securities underperformed government bonds as spreads widened. Within the securitized sectors, agency mortgage-backed securities, assetbacked securities, and commercial mortgage-backed securities all underperformed duration-equivalent government bonds. Within emerging markets (EM), local markets debt underperformed external debt in USD terms. EM currency depreciation drove negative performance while EM rates movement had a muted impact in local markets.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-5.pdf

October, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund underperformed the benchmark during the month of October. Performance was negative with all our underlying managers underperforming the benchmark.

Coupon income continues to be the primary contributor to returns, offsetting any impacts from modest spread widening. However, the duration position of the portfolio resulted in a drag as bond yields rose during the month, dampening returns. Economic growth decelerated in October whilst market volatility rose. Inflation was the core focused yet again and his was accompanied by elevated levels of bond volatility.

Major central banks shifted toward tighter policy to combat rising inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates to 0.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia abandoned its bond-yield target amid an improving domestic outlook. UK rates markets priced in a 15 basis points hike for November following the Bank of England Governor Bailey’s remarks about countering inflation pressures. The Bank of Canada ended its QE program, opening the door to a 2022 hike. Major EM central banks including Russia, Poland, and Brazil also hiked rates.

Consequently, most global sovereign short-end yields rose, driven by hawkish rhetoric from central banks on the back of inflationary pressures. US Treasury yields increased, and the yield curve flattened amid supply chain concerns and rising costs. Australian front-end yields surged after the Reserve Bank of Australia held off buying bonds to defend its yield curve control target. Canadian short-end yields spiked after the Bank of Canada announcement of phasing out of QE and commencement of earlier rate hikes. In Europe, UK gilts gained after the UK government cut its planned gilt issuance by more than expected.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-International-Fixed-Interest-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet.pdf

August, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund was flat during the month, in line with the benchmark. Manager performance was mixed with Kapstream and TwentyFour outperforming the benchmark whilst TCW detracted. In TCW’s case, the fund benefitted from the exposure to corporate credit, particularly top performing high yield industrials and from non-agency MBS holdings, with those backed by subprime collateral contributing the most. The duration position of the portfolio resulted in a drag as treasury yields rose during the month. Across our manager line up, coupon income was the primary driver of returns, with mild spread compression also contributing positively. The fragile risk appetite continued from July into August as softer economic data in the US and China, regulatory head¬winds in China and geopolitical tensions in Afghanistan all weighed negatively on investor sentiment.

Fixed income sectors posted mixed results versus government bonds as sovereign yields drifted higher. Fading vaccine efficacy amid new COVID-19 restrictions and the lurking Delta variant reinforced global growth concerns. US economic data remained steady though consumer sentiment remains challenged fuelled by concerns over rising COVID-19 Delta variant cases.

Most developed market government bonds yields rose over the month, as markets responded to hawkish signals from various central banks. The Fed indicated that it is likely to taper asset purchases later this year, first through the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, and then in Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. While several Fed officials have advocated an earlier and faster taper, Powell’s comments are consistent with an announcement coming in November or December rather than September as he warned of the risks of prematurely tightening policy. In Europe, core and peripheral European government bond yields rose as statements from various ECB officials paved the way for a slowing of asset purchases. The underlying tone, however, remains one of which major central banks are reassessing their asset tapering plans while still maintaining accommodative policy overall.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-4.pdf

July, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund outperformed the benchmark during the month of July, with all managers outperforming the benchmark. The positive contribution from duration was the largest single driver of performance during the month across our manager line up as global bond yields fell. Meanwhile, the allocation to corporate credit and securitised instruments proved a headwind as both sectors trailed government bonds as spread widened. Global government bond yields fell during July, as fears over the COVID-19 Delta variant continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Signs of weakness in US and Chinese data also dampened global growth optimism. Most fixed income sectors underperformed treasuries as interest rates rallied and credit spreads widened.

European government bonds rallied strongly following the outcome of the ECB’s strategic review, which saw it adopt a symmetric 2% medium-term inflation target, an increase from the previous target of “below, but close to, 2%”. At its subsequent policy-setting meeting, the ECB strengthened its forward guidance not to raise rates until it sees inflation at 2% “well ahead of the end of its projection horizon”.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-3.pdf

June, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund outperformed the benchmark during the month of June. Performance was broadly positive with all managers outperforming the benchmark.

TCW’s outperformance was driven by the allocation to investment grade credit as spreads compressed during the month, particularly for top performing industrials. A small exposure to high yield also benefited performance given the considerable gains for the sector. Within the securitized products position non-agency MBS holdings did well, followed by CMBS, while agency MBS detracted as the sector faced headwinds of rate volatility. TwentyFour and Kapstream also outperformed the benchmark during the month of June. The portfolio’s exposure towards short-dated securities benefited from a modest contraction in credit spreads, combined with excess carry from underlying coupons. Global GDP growth continued to recover during the second quarter as progress on vaccinations enabled economies to reopen, though it contracted further in Europe and Japan. The US labour market continued to improve while the housing market remained supported by low mortgage rates and scarce supply. Chinese manufacturing PMI expanded, though strong demand was tempered by sharp price increases of raw materials. Eurozone manufacturing PMI jumped to an all-time high, partially driven by record high input prices resulting from supply bottlenecks. Global fixed income sectors generated positive returns over the second quarter of 2021. Sovereign yield curves generally flattened as central banks signalled a shift toward tighter policy stances following recent high inflation data, leading market participants to perceive a reduced risk of policymakers falling behind the inflation curve

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-2.pdf

May, 2021

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund outperformed the benchmark during the month of May with all managers outperforming the benchmark. TCW’s portfolio performance benefited from the slightly longer than normal duration position as US Treasury yields edged lower, and also from the allocation to corporate credit and non-agency MBS. Notably among corporate credit the biggest contributors were non-cyclicals, communications, energy, and banks.TwentyFour also outperformed the benchmark during May owing to its exposure towards short-dated securities which benefited from a modest contraction in credit spreads.

Across the continent in Europe, economic sentiment reached a three-year high, bolstered by gains in the services and retail sectors. Europe made significant progress in its vaccination program during May, with various countries also again beginning to ease restrictions. Economic data prints reflected a corresponding pickup in economic activity and the European Commission upgraded its euro area 2021 growth forecast to 4.3% from 3.8%.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet-1.pdf

December, 2020

The Advance Defensive Yield Multi Blend Fund outperformed the benchmark during the month of December. Performance from our underlying managers continue to benefit from the strong excess carry alongside the continued contraction in credit spreads. TCW, TwentyFour and Kapstream all outperformed the index during the month of December. TCW outperformed the benchmark in December with the outperformance driven by contributions from both investment grade and high yield industrial sectors such as energy and communications.

Outside of credit, securitized products holdings were additive to returns, particularly residential MBS and non-agency CMBS. The duration positioning was a slight headwind to performance as Treasury rates moved higher across the curve. TwentyFour outperformed the benchmark in December with the strategy focused on investing mainly across short dated BBB rated instruments. Kapstream also outperformed the benchmark, as coupon income stemming from the fund’s corporate bond exposure and capital appreciation from underlying holdings all benefiting the portfolio in December. However, owing to the more conservative stance of the portfolio, the excess returns from Kapstream was relatively less compared to the peer group.

Global fixed income sectors generated positive returns over December as risk sentiment remained constructive. Most fixed income spread sectors outperformed as global credit spreads tightened, US presidential elections concluded, and major central banks’ policies aimed to mitigate risks. Global central banks maintained highly accommodative policy stances during the period. The Federal Reserve (Fed) provided additional assurance that asset buying would continue for the foreseeable future, noting that purchases of US Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) would proceed at their current pace at least until “substantial further progress has been made” on the labour market and inflation outlooks.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also extended its pandemic emergency purchase program through at least March 2022. The Bank of Japan extended its relief programs for six months while also announcing a review of its monetary policy to better achieve its 2% inflation target. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) each announced additional quantitative easing, with the RBA aiming to purchase intermediate-dated bonds. Accompanying this backdrop, global sovereign yields ended mixed. Sovereign curves in the dollar bloc economies (US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand) steepened, led by an increase in intermediate and long -end maturities while yields in Europe (UK, Germany) drifted lower. US 10 - and 30 -year Treasury yields increased as they primarily responded to the growth implications of further US fiscal stimulus and vaccine rollouts, looking through near -term data weakness and the surging COVID -19 case count.

The rally in credit markets also continued in December despite rising COVID-19 infections and tighter restrictions aimed at containing the spread. Markets remained forward-looking as a number of vaccines with high efficacy levels began to receive regulatory approval, thus bringing forward the timing when economic activity should normalise. On the currency front, most currencies across developed and emerging markets rallied versus the US dollar.

File: https://commentary.quantreports.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Advance-Defensive-Yield-Multi-Blend-Fund-factsheet.pdf
asset_class: Multi-Asset
asset_category: 21-40% Growth Assets - Multi-Manager
peer_benchmark: Multi-Asset - 21-40% Multi-Manager Index
broad_market_index: Multi-Asset Moderate Investor Index
manager_contact_details: Array
ticker: ADV0049AU
release_schedule: Monthly
commentary_block: Array
factsheet_url:

http://www.advance.com.au/funds/sector-multi-blend-funds/defensive-yield-multi-blend-fund.asp

Fund Factsheet

 

https://www.multimanager.mercer.com.au/fund-facts/diversified-funds.html


fund_features:

Advance Wholesale Defensive Multi-Blend Fund aims to provide secure income with a low risk of capital loss over the short to medium term, with some capital growth over the long term. The Fund invests in a diverse mix of assets with a majority in the defensive assets of cash and fixed interest and a modest investment in growth assets such as shares. The Fund’s exposure to these asset classes will be obtained primarily by investing directly into our sector specific funds. The Fund may also hold assets directly including derivatives, currency and other unit trusts.


structure: Managed Fund